2020 NFL Draft: Overvalued Tight Ends

As we make our way through month two of NFL Draft season, it is time to start taking a look at each position and begin figuring out who may be overvalued and who may be undervalued. Here we will dive into the tight end position as we look at two players who look like they are being overvalued. In today’s NFL, the majority of people are all about the field-stretching ability and the receiving threat that a tight end can be for an offense. However, that is only half the equation of being a complete tight end in the NFL. To be more than a situational player, tight ends need to be able to also widen or create running lanes for backs as well as be able to pass block at times when maximum protection is needed.

To be considered for one of my overvalued tight end spots, a player has to be widely considered a lock to go in the first three rounds of the draft. I also wanted to make sure that they played against higher competition, that way I could confidently gauge their abilities during the scouting process. So when I feel a player is overvalued because he doesn’t create an impact as a blocker or he doesn’t stretch the field as well as some might think, I know that he has high-level film to support that statement.

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Cole Kmet (Notre Dame)
The two tight ends that I will be discussing as overvalued prospects are Cole Kmet of Notre Dame and Brycen Hopkins of Purdue. Let’s dig into Kmet first. He has a lot of things to be broken down.

The first factor is until he declared for the draft in January everyone thought he was going to attempt to play professional baseball. Then he made the Kyler Murray-type decision, so I personally had to catch up on his film and who he was in general. Kmet seems dedicated to making it in the NFL, but there is a small red flag that he could change his mind at any time and go back to baseball if he feels football might not be right for him during his early career.

Taking a look at his statistical impact, Kmet was basically a one-year impact player. He came into 2019 with 17 career receptions for 176 yards and a 10.35 yard/rec average with no touchdowns. Kmet finished 2019 with 43 receptions for 515 yards, a 12 yard/rec average, and six touchdowns. It’s jumps in production like that that really grab draft analysts’ eyes.

Kmet does bring prototypical NFL size to the position at 6’5″ and 250 pounds along with sure hands. However, the big reason behind Kmet being overvalued is that there isn’t any certain area he excels at. With his size, production, and playing time as a starter in 2019, you expect to see a prospect who is very good in one area and at least sufficient in every other role. When it comes to Kmet, he graded out as being just average at every trait you look at for a tight end after scouting four of his games from 2019.

He isn’t an overwhelming blocker and he is average at best as an athlete. He looks stiff with and without the ball in his hand. Also, while he is a sound receiver, he doesn’t blow you away with his body adjustment during many of his catches.

Based on my film study, I see Kmet as the TE4 in this draft process and a good target in the third round. Any earlier than Round 3 and a team is overvaluing his skills and traits. Kmet is an average blocker, athlete, and tight end prospect overall. Based on my grading, he doesn’t have the traits of a game-changing tight end, but at this point, it does look like a lot of analysts have him ranked in places that suggest he will go ahead of tight ends that I believe will be much better players in the NFL.

Brycen Hopkins (Purdue)
Every year the tight end position is one of the shallowest talent pools in the draft. This year there is decent depth, but there isn’t a standalone prospect at the top. A lot of analysts do consistently have one player within the top two players at the position. This is true for my own rankings. That player is Brycen Hopkins out of Purdue.

While I do have Hopkins at TE2 in my rankings, I want to emphasize the importance of not looking at rankings. Like I said, while Hopkins is one of the best players in the draft at his position, this isn’t an extremely talented group. All the prospects have noticeable issues when their film is broken down.

The reason that Brycen Hopkins will be overvalued is because of his college production. He increased his receptions and yards all four seasons, ending with 61 receptions for 830 yards and seven touchdowns as a senior. It is because of production like this where people assume that player must be the next great tight end in the NFL. However, what makes tight ends great at the next level is the ability to be on the field no matter what the situation is. That brings us to the reason I believe that Hopkins is overvalued and a team will reach on him during draft weekend.

Despite very good size and athleticism for the position at 6’5″ and 245 pounds, Hopkins lacks the playing strength and contact balance to be a three-down threat at his position. Based on my film breakdown of him, teams can’t expect to line up Hopkins inline and have him try to kick out or drive edge defenders off the ball to create running lanes.

This became even more evident during his week at the Senior Bowl. Hopkins lost a lot of reps in the run blocking drills throughout the week. This is going to hurt Hopkins on the receiving end because when you can only be on the field in obvious passing situations, it becomes a lot easier to defend you because the defense knows what is coming.

So while Hopkins is my TE2 at this point, it is important not to get caught falling in love with his receiving abilities alone because that is only half of what an impactful tight end is supposed to be able to do. At this point I see Hopkins going in the second round, so it is going to be very important for him develop his strength and blocking technique so that he can become that complete tight end than many are overvaluing him as right now.

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