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2020 NFL Draft Risers and Fallers: Early February

2020 NFL Draft Risers and Fallers: Early February

With the wrap up of the college season, as well as all the collegiate All-Star games, we are left with the best part of the scouting process. Grinding through as much film as possible! Film study is the most important part of each prospect’s analysis; figuring out strengths, weaknesses, where they fit on a team, and what they can bring to a team. As February begins, several players, based on their film, have begun to move themselves up and down the rankings of scouts and teams.

Here we will take a look at five players who have climbed up my rankings at this point in the draft process and who have fallen in my rankings. All these “movers” will be players who I have seen move on my rankings, and I will provide a breakdown of what has led to the move for each player. So to start it off, let’s take a look at five risers at this point in the draft season!

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Risers

Justin Jefferson (WR – LSU)
Justin Jefferson entered the season very much under the radar and overshadowed by his position mate, Jamar Chase. Even as the season went on the hype didn’t start to develop around Jefferson until the 2020 College Football Playoffs. Over those two games, Jefferson burst onto the scene. It was at that point that people, including myself, began diving into his film and it became clear that Jefferson has the traits that teams are constantly on the search for. He has shown off good hands, great play-making ability, strong body control, and savvy route running that have led me to move him up to my WR5 position in my current rankings and a great option for a team looking for a reliable WR2 option.

Adam Trautman (TE – Dayton)
Adam Trautman out of Dayton appears on this list, not as an under the radar prospect. The issue with him was the level of competition that he faced. It was because of this that I had a hard time putting Trautman higher than my TE3. However, Trautman accepted his invitation to the 2020 Senior Bowl and had a great week showing that his blocking ability, route running, catching, and ability with the ball in his hands stack up against the best of the best. It was because of this that Trautman has moved up from TE3 to TE1 on my rankings.

Josh Jones (OT – Houston)
Throughout the season, Josh Jones had little to no buzz relating to the NFL Draft besides being a mid-round pick. However, after evaluating his game film as well as watching how he handled the competition at the Senior Bowl Josh Jones has launched himself from somewhere between OT8-10 and into a tight competition for OT5. With the high demand for his position, there is a great chance that Jones has worked his way into the late first round. Jones has the size, reactive athleticism, and anchor to hold down either tackle spots for an NFL team for many years. So far Jones has been the biggest riser at a position for me. He has made himself a lot of money.

J.K. Dobbins (RB – Ohio State)
Dobbins did not have a ton of buzz entering this season. Instead, he had numerous question marks. As a freshman, he was the best running back on the team. Then as a sophomore, he wasn’t able to beat out Mike Weber. So coming into the season nobody knew what to expect. What J.K. Dobbins were we going to get? Dobbins answered the question by being the bell cow for a playoff team en route to 2,003 yards. Since the season has ended, Dobbins’ stock has continued to climb the more film I watched of him, going from RB7 up to RB3 in my current rankings. As long as he continues to play how he did this year and his freshman year he will provide a team with a three-down threat because of his running ability both between and outside the tackles as well as his receiving ability out of the backfield.

Patrick Queen (LB – LSU)
Patrick Queen is the most recent riser of all the risers listed here. Throughout the whole season, I didn’t expect Queen to declare for the draft so I hadn’t really given him much attention. Even when he sent in his name to the Draft Advisory Board he received a “Go back to school” grade meaning they didn’t believe he would be a first or second-rounder. However, since his declaration, I have started getting deep into his film and have been very surprised. He has a ton of athleticism for his position. He has shown the ability to fill against the run game just as easily as he can drop into coverage. He has gone from little known LB to my LB2 and potential late-round 1 draftee.

Fallers

Now onto the fallers. To be clear, these players have plenty of time to save themselves and become risers. They still have pro days, and the Combine to put forth impressive performances. Also, with more and more game film becoming available, as we move through February, scouting reports and scores can change. With that being said, the five players currently falling in the rankings, as well as a breakdown of why, are as follows…

Tyler Biadasz (C – Wisconsin)
As we entered 2020 I had Biadasz as my #1 IOL, but since beginning to dive deep into his film I came away disappointed based on his 2019 season. He seemed to lack the strength that he showed in 2018. Biadasz also played with more stiffness this season that many are blaming on offseason hip surgery. The concerning part is that surgery was done last spring, so to see it carry over for months afterward and effecting his play has him sliding down my rankings. At this point, he is a scheme-specific IOL with injury concerns. Back when I released my first mock draft on January 1 I had Biadasz going mid-round 1. At this point, I feel he is more of a mid to late round 2 player because of the concerns that follow him.

Tyler Johnson (WR – Minnesota)
Tyler Johnson may be able to blame some of his reason for being listed here on the hype put on him by Minnesota Gopher fans and social media in general. Throughout the season the only time I was able to really watch him was a live game or two and then just checking in on his season stats throughout the year. Based on what those told me I expected to see a top 5-7 player at his position. However, after getting into his film I have been let down. He is good at the catch point, but I worry a lot about his ability to create separation. He doesn’t have great athleticism and he isn’t an experienced route runner because he didn’t run a huge variety of routes. He also faced a lot of big cushions so I worry that NFL corners will be able to cause him a lot of issues by pressing him at the line. At this point, Johnson is fighting to hang around WR10 in my rankings.

Zack Moss (RB – Utah)
Like Tyler Johnson, Zack Moss plays at a position that is extremely deep in this draft. When faced with a situation like that players need to do their best to make an impact on teams through as much interaction as possible. That is what Moss hasn’t done so far. Moss was invited to participate in the 2020 Senior Bowl and would have probably been the biggest name there for the position. However, Moss decided to pass on the offer and instead train with his trainer on his own. This is not something you see every year. When other players pull out it is basically always due to an injury. Not the case here and this will undoubtedly hurt his draft stock. You want to see a guy who is competitive. Moss hasn’t shown that since the season ended. He has now made it so his combine is that much more important. I’ll be rooting for him because I think he has some good traits, but he has put himself in an unnecessary hole here.

Grant Delpit (S – LSU)
Grant Delpit was the most disappointing player during the 2019 college football season. Entering the season I had Delpit as a top 15 lock if he continued to develop with another season of experience. Essentially the opposite happened. Delpit seemed to be playing very reserved. He struggled mightily with his tackling all year and he didn’t develop in coverage as much as I had expected. The only time he would show glimmers of what could be was when he was in the box filling against the run. That is a fine role to fill, but just being a box safety who is better against the run than pass is not going to get you into the top 20 of the first round. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if he fell out of the first round completely.

Andrew Thomas (OT – Georgia)
Andrew Thomas is on this list for a different reason. I still feel he is a top 15 lock, but entering January and up until a couple of weeks ago I felt he was OT2. However, after the film study of other tackles, Thomas has started to slide down my rankings. Currently, Thomas is hanging on at OT4. Of all the fallers here Thomas has the best chance of moving up because even though he is OT4 it is a tight race from OT2-5 for me so with a strong combine and pro day he could build his stock up further. However, to fully maximize the tools he brings to the table he made need to make the transition to guard. If he goes into his interviews and shows a willingness to play wherever needed he will increase his value.

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Mark Johnson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mark, check out his archive and follow him @MJ_NFLDraft.

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