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7 Early Over/Undervalued Players (2020 Fantasy Football)

Feb 5, 2020

Raheem Mostert is being overlooked now, but expect his ranking to rise during the offseason

The 2019 NFL season has officially ended, but that doesn’t mean that fantasy football nuts all of sudden stop paying attention to the game they love. Now is the perfect time to examine this past season while it’s still fresh in our minds and see how our predictions for 2020 might be affected. We’ve reached out to 2019’s most accurate experts in the industry for their thoughts on which players may be too over and undervalued coming off the heels of another amazing year in football.

Featured Experts:
Dan HarrisFantasyPros
Joe BondFantasy Six Pack
Mike TagliereFantasyPros
Dylan ChappineWhite Wolf Sports

Q1. What one player in our half-PPR early consensus rankings do you feel is the most undervalued at the moment?

Raheem Mostert (RB – SF): 96th Overall | RB35
“Mostert is too low at 96th overall. I have him in the mid-50s right now. I know that might seem aggressive, but he led the backfield in touches by a fairly large margin the last month of the season and during the playoffs, with the exception of Minnesota game where he was battling cramps. He returned the following week to dominate the Packers, scoring four touchdowns and rushing for 220 yards. Yes, it’s a crowded backfield, but I firmly believe he will get more work than Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida with his performance down the stretch.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

“I understand the reason behind Raheem Mostert’s expert consensus ranking (96th overall, 35th running back), but he’s still incredibly undervalued at that spot in my opinion. Yes, the 49ers will still have a crowded backfield next year, Kyle Shanahan loves to employ a committee, and Tevin Coleman got the start in the Super Bowl. Plus, Mostert doesn’t factor into the passing game much. However, his overall postseason performance and his nose for the goal-line gives him a better than average chance to lead the San Francisco committee in 2020 and there is enormous value in that spot. There’s huge upside with Mostert as he showed in the postseason and I’d expect his ECR to rise throughout the offseason.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – CLE): 27th Overall | WR11
“Everyone wants to remember what happened most recently as a reason to eliminate everything that happened before, but that’s a big mistake. It’s the reason Derrick Henry will be overvalued in 2020 drafts and the same reason Beckham will be undervalued. Coaching goes a long way towards a player’s success and we saw the Browns’ offense handicapped by Freddie Kitchens. On a game-for-game basis, Beckham was the best fantasy wide receiver of all-time coming into 2019, but he was a major disappointment while trying to play through an injury that required surgery at year’s end. Give him a full offseason with Baker Mayfield in Kevin Stefanski’s new offense and he’s likely going to remind fantasy owners why he was a first-round pick last year. Fortunately, you only have to give up a third-round pick to find out.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG): 136th Overall | QB19
“Currently ranked as a low-end QB2 and late-round flier, Jones is the player I believe is most undervalued in early consensus rankings. Fantasy owners will again be able to wait on quarterback next year, but Jones threw for 24 touchdowns in 12 starts as a rookie – and that was without his entire supporting cast ever being on the field together to see New York at full strength. In addition to bolstering the offensive line, the Giants may be able to add a big-bodied wideout in a deep draft class, so I believe Jones has top-five upside at the position.”
– Dylan Chappine (White Wolf Sports)

Q2. What one player in our half-PPR early consensus rankings do you feel is the most overvalued at the moment?

Stefon Diggs (WR – MIN): 36th Overall | WR17
“I love Diggs’ talent, but assuming that he stays in Minnesota, I’ll have him ranked lower than his expert consensus ranking. Diggs had an odd year in 2019: he set a career-high in receiving yards (1,130) despite catching just 63 passes and seeing 55 fewer targets than he did in 2018. Plus, all that was with Adam Thielen battling through injuries most of the season. Although Kevin Stefanski is gone, the offensive scheme should remain the same with Gary Kubiak moving to the offensive coordinator position. In other words, Diggs is basically going to need to maintain his huge explosive play rate (he averaged 18 yards per catch, fifth-best in the NFL and miles above his career average) to earn that ranking. I wouldn’t be willing to make that bet at his current price.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Jameis Winston (QB – TB): 74th Overall | QB7
“Winston finished as a high-end QB1 in 2019, but early drafters could be wasting valuable capital by drafting him at his current value (QB7) heading into an uncertain offseason for the former No. 1 overall pick. Bruce Arians was clearly fed up with the turnovers at the end of the year, so even if Winston is back in Tampa Bay, I highly doubt he has the same kind of leash with the franchise in position to add another capable option via free agency and/or the draft. Through 72 career appearances, Winston has tossed 88 interceptions, and Arians – who turns 68 in the fall – doesn’t have time to mess around.”
– Dylan Chappine (White Wolf Sports)

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): 7th Overall | RB6
“While Henry was a force to be reckoned with down the stretch, we can’t suddenly forget about the other three-and-a-half years of his career. He doesn’t do any work in the passing game, which means he comes with a floor much lower than a first-round pick rightfully should. On top of that, we have no idea where Henry will be playing in 2020, as he’s reportedly asked for six years and $90 million with $50 million guaranteed. It’s hard to see many (if any) teams come close to that.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Kerryon Johnson (RB – DET): 51st Overall | RB22
“Johnson is a player I would not own anywhere if I was drafting right now. He worries me. Not only has he had two seasons in a row cut short due to injury, but it does not appear the Lions trust him to be a workhorse. This is proven by their attempt to bring in C.J. Anderson. Yes, that was a failed experiment, but it leads me to believe the Lions draft a running back this season.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

Thank you to the experts for giving their early overvalued and undervalued players. For more great fantasy advice, please be sure to follow them on Twitter.

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1Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
2Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
3Michael Thomas (NO)WR
4Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
5Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
6Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
7Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
8Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
9Davante Adams (GB)WR
10DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)WR
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11Aaron Jones (GB)RB
12Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
13Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
14Julio Jones (ATL)WR
15Chris Godwin (TB)WR
16Travis Kelce (KC)TE
17George Kittle (SF)TE
18Mike Evans (TB)WR
19Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
20Josh Jacobs (LV)RB
21Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
22Lamar Jackson (BAL)QB
23Kenny Golladay (DET)WR
24Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)WR
25D.J. Moore (CAR)WR
26Austin Ekeler (LAC)RB
27Todd Gurley (ATL)RB
28Mark Andrews (BAL)TE
29Allen Robinson (CHI)WR
30Miles Sanders (PHI)RB
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Mike Trout (LAA)CF
3Christian Yelich (MIL)LF,RF
4Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
5Mookie Betts (LAD)CF,RF
6Trevor Story (COL)SS
7Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
8Gerrit Cole (NYY)SP
9Trea Turner (WSH)SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
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11Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
12Juan Soto (WSH)LF
13Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Jose Ramirez (CLE)3B
16Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
17J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
18Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
19Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)SS
20Anthony Rendon (LAA)3B
21Rafael Devers (BOS)3B
22Bryce Harper (PHI)RF
23Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
24Starling Marte (ARI)CF
25Jack Flaherty (STL)SP
26Javier Baez (CHC)SS
27Stephen Strasburg (WSH)SP
28Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
29Shane Bieber (CLE)SP
30Yordan Alvarez (HOU)LF,DH
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
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11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (CLE)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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