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FanDuel PGA Preview: Honda Classic (2020)

FanDuel PGA Preview: Honda Classic (2020)

Viktor Hovland finally won his first professional golf tournament down in Puerto Rico and we got a star-studded leaderboard at the WGC-Mexico last week. This week we get a wide-open field at a historically tough course designed by Jack Nicklaus. Brooks Koepka is the golfer among the world’s top 10 that is scheduled to tee it up this week at the Honda Classic. However, this is always an exciting event and is the first regular PGA event in the Eastern time zone during the 2020 calendar year so remember that lineups lock earlier than they have in previous weeks. On a related note, I will be on location this week watching the Honda Classic, as well as playing in the DFS Open. Hit me up on Twitter if any of you loyal readers are going to be at either event.

There are 7 golfers priced at $11,000 or above on FanDuel this week. FanDuel provides DFS players with a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Brooks Koepka is the only golfer in the 12K range at an even $12,000. Tommy Fleetwood ($11,800) and Rickie Fowler are the next highest priced players. Justin Rose and Gary Woodland round out FanDuel’s top five highest-priced golfers at $11,400 and $11,300, respectively. The contests on FD are smaller than the ones on DK but, on the flip side, you don’t have to go up against the enormous GPP fields. FanDuel’s $9 “Eagle” contest only has a little more than 13,000 entries with a first-place prize of $20,000.

All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. In fact, most of the plays mentioned are based upon my customized model that includes a variety of statistics and results. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. This article is written early in the week and additional news, research, and roster construction could lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals.

Remember that golf is very difficult to play but DFS golf is even tougher. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the course of a golf season. However, from week-to-week, major variance can occur. Any golfer on the PGA Tour is capable of winning an event. On the flip side, even the best golfers in the world are capable of missing the cut in a given week.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.

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Tournament Notes

  • The Honda Classic is played on the Champion Course at PGA National Resort & Spa in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. It is a Par 70 course measuring 7,140 yards. It is typically regarded as one of the more difficult courses on the PGA Tour.
  • The event was established in 1972 but it has only been played at the PGA National Golf Club’s Champion Course since 2007.
  • This is a 144-player field with the top-65 (and ties) making the cut and playing the weekend.
  • The course is primarily known for the “Bear Trap”, which consists of holes 15, 16, and 17. This extremely difficult stretch of holes is named after Jack Nicklaus, who redesigned the course back in 1990. All three holes year in and year outplay OVER par.
  • The Bermuda greens are about the average tour size and measure around 11.5 on the stimpmeter.
  • The fairways are very narrow and the rough is thick. The driving distance for this event is typically about 10 yards shorter than the Tour average. Fairways are also hit less than normal.
  • Previous Honda Classic winners scheduled to tee it up this week include Keith Mitchell (2019), Rickie Fowler (2017), Padraig Harrington (2015 & 2005), Russell Henley (2014), Michael Thompson (2013), Rory Sabbatini (2011), Camilo Villegas (2010), Mark Wilson (2007), and Luke Donald (2006).
  • Nearly everyone last year was expecting a three-man playoff, but Keith Mitchell surprisingly sank a 15-foot birdie putt on the final hole to defeat Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler by one shot.
  • Brian Harman set the course record with a 61 in the second round of the 2012 event.
  • The cut last year was 2-OVER par. The four years prior, the cut was +5, Even, +3, and +4.
  • The average winning score for the last five years is nearly 9-under par. Only three of the last 10 years has had a winning score in the double-digits with 13-under par from Camilo Villegas in 2010 being the best.
  • This event typically sees a fair share of gusty winds, so you’ll want to monitor the weather reports. This might be a week to consider stacking different waves.
  • There are four Par 3 holes (which all typically play OVER par), two Par 5s (which are NOT usually reachable in two), and 12 Par 4 holes. Last year, only five holes had an average score of below par (#’s 1, 3, 8, 13, and 18).
  • Water is a threat on 15 of the 18 holes and there are nearly 80 bunkers on the course (with half of them being situated in the fairway).

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. From a stats perspective, this week’s best golfers (in ranked order) are Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Joaquin Niemann, Erik van Rooyen, Corey Conners, Gary Woodland, Byeong Hun An, Doc Redman, and Harold Varner.

Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Daniel Berger, Matthew NeSmith, Erik van Rooyen, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland, Maverick McNealy, Harry Higgs, Gary Woodland, Vaughn Taylor, and Kevin Streelman. Among the golfers in this week’s field, Tommy Fleetwood has the longest streak of PGA Tour made cuts with 32. Louis Oosthuizen (12), Denny McCarthy (11), Maverick McNealy (10), and Talor Gooch (10) are the only other players in the field with double-digit cuts streaks. Viktor Hovland just won at the Puerto Rico Open, which qualify him for having some good form. Billy Horschel and Daniel Berger are the only two players that have top-10 finishes in their last two events.

Course History
The golfers who have gained the most total strokes at this course during the last five years (in ranked order) include Rickie Fowler, Ryan Palmer, Luke List, Billy Horschel, Lucas Glover, Jason Dufner, Sean O’Hair, Daniel Berger, John Huh, and Ian Poulter. Fowler interestingly has a missed cut sandwiched between a runner-up finish last year and a win in 2017. Jason Dufner and Stewart Cink have both made 11 straight cuts here.

Saving Par
This event regularly produces low winning scores and shooting even par should safely advance a golfer to the weekend, possibly leading to a top-20 finish. One of the best ways that a golfer can avoid bogeys is by scrambling to save par. I usually focus on golfers that can score but this week, extra emphasis will be on those guys that can avoid red numbers on the scorecard. In looking at the PGA Tour’s 2019-2020 scrambling and bogey avoidance statistics, the seven golfers that are in the top-30 for both categories are Byeong Hun An, Bud Cauley, Harris English, Brian Harman, Tom Hoge, Russell Knox, and Tim Wilkinson.

Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are good to know but sports (in particular, DFS golf) oftentimes comes down to playing the best golfers. Sure, salary is involved but the more good golfers you can fit in your lineups, then the better chance you give yourself. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Brooks Koepka (#3), Tommy Fleetwood (#12), Justin Rose (#13), Gary Woodland (#17), Louis Oosthuizen (#18), Rickie Fowler (#25), Lee Westwood (#30), Sungjae Im (#34), Billy Horschel (#35), and Erik van Rooyen (#40).

Favorite $11,000+ Plays

Gary Woodland ($11,300)
In the last 24 rounds played, he is first in fantasy scoring and total strokes gained. He has made 11/12 cut, including four top-10 finishes. As far as the Honda is concerned, he has four straight made cuts, including a T2 in 2017.

Viktor Hovland ($11,000)
This young gun finally got his first PGA win last week. I am not afraid to go right back to him for two reasons. First, he has no apparent weaknesses in his game. Secondly, he won as the favorite. That is extremely impressive for a guy in his first full year on the PGA Tour. That tells me that pressure doesn’t get to him. In his 15 PGA events in the last year, he has seven finishes inside the top 16. He’s very consistent and has now shown he has winning upside, as well.

Favorite $10,000 Plays

Billy Horschel ($10,900)
He and Daniel Berger are the only two players in this field that comes into this week with back-to-back top-10 finishes. Overall, he has made the cut in 18 of his last 21 events. In his last four Honda Classic starts, he has a T16, MC, T4, and T8.

Erik van Rooyen ($10,200)
He finished T3 at last week’s WGC-Mexico. We know that he can get on a roll like he did last summer when he had top-20 finishes in seven of eight events. In the last 24 rounds played, he is second in fantasy scoring and seventh in total strokes gained.

Shane Lowry ($10,400)
Since winning the Open Championship, he’s played the weekend in 12 of the 14 events he’s played in. He hasn’t played much but has gone T29, T13, and T11 so far this calendar year. Since his major win, he has six top-15 finishes in those 14 events. He hasn’t shown the upside since that win but we do know he has it. He has made the cut in both of his Honda starts. He is also one of the best players when it comes to challenging courses.

Favorite $9,000 Plays       

Harris English ($9,800)
He has made 9/10 cuts with four top-six finishes during that stretch. He was T16 at the WMPO in his last time out. He is a good scrambler and one of the better players at avoiding bogeys. In his last three starts at the Honda, he has gotten progressively better (T12, T33, and T60).

Wyndham Clark ($9,600)
He has made three straight cuts, including two top-20 finishes in a row. Last year he finished T7 here. He is strong off the tee and is a good putter. He is also someone that typically outscores his finishing position.

Bud Cauley ($9,300)
Finished T12 here last year and T27 in 2017. He has top 10 upside as we saw with his T4 at The American Express and T9 at the Houston Open. He is one of the seven players that are ranked in the top 30 on the PGA Tour for scrambling and bogey avoidance.

Favorite $8,000 Plays

Matthew NeSmith ($8,900)
The rookie has now made seven straight PGA cuts after finishing T6 at the Puerto Rico Open. This was on the heels of a T11 at the AT&T. He has four top-20 finishes in his last seven events. In the last 24 rounds, he is fourth in total strokes gained and sixth in fantasy scoring.

Harry Higgs ($8,900)
Higgs has made the cut in seven of his last eight events. He is coming in on a bit of a hot streak with three top-25 finishes in a row, including a T9 at the Farmers. In the last 24 rounds, he is fourth in the field in fantasy scoring and sixth in total strokes gained.

K.H. Lee ($8,500)
He is a boom or bust-type player but right now seems to be playing well. He finished T14 at the Puerto Rico Open and T13 at the Genesis. In his last seven events, he has three missed cuts to go with his T14, T13, T21, and T5. At last year’s Honda, he finished T7. If you want a little more safety then you can play Maverick McNealy ($8,700), who has made 10 straight cuts.

Favorite $7,000 Play

Joseph Bramlett ($7,700)
His T9 at the Puerto Rico Open was his eight made cut in his last 11 events. It was also his second top-20 finish in his last 3 starts.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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