ThriveFantasy FantasyPros Contest NBA Best Bets for February 21st, 2020
ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Tonight for the first full night of NBA action after the all-star break, we have partnered with our friends at ThriveFantasy to bring you a unique contest with special prizes awarded in addition to the cash you would win for placement in normal contests. Tonight’s ThriveFantasy FantasyPros contest is a $5 entry contest with a maximum of three entries per user. There will be a maximum of 300 total entries. In addition to the cash prizes ($400 to first, top 51 get at least double entry), first place will win a one year Hall of Fame subscription at FantasyPros. Second place will win a six month Hall of Fame subscription to FantasyPros, and third place will win three months.
ThriveFantasy differs from most DFS providers in that instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby. The featured FantasyPros contest will be at the top of the Contest Lobby and will have our name, FantasyPros, in the title of the contest name. The full contest is titled “$5 NBA Fri FantasyPros Contest – $1500 GTD” and can be found here.
Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two correct selections pays a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pays a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks pays a 11 times multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount.
The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NBA involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.
Fantasy sport players, especially DFS players, have an edge when it comes to player prop betting. DFS players set lineups taking into account potential production when weighing competing options against each other. This is most pronounced with NBA and NFL DFS players. As such, diving into prop based DFS contests is a smart way to further monetize your knowledge. While the Contest Lobby requires you to select 10 different props, you can still make a return even if you do not get every over/under prediction right.
To identify whether to select the over or the under we will take a look at some recent trends and key stats. We will also take any injuries, and narratives into account. Finally, we will use lines at sportsbooks to identify whether the lines hold any immediate value. Be sure to take advantage of the unique opportunity our featured contest presents. As a reminder, the contest will be at the top of the Contest Lobby and is named $5 NBA Fri FantasyPros Contest – $1500 GTD. Let’s dig in.
Luka Doncic 29.5 points (o 95/u 105)
- 28.9 points per game on the season
- 29.1 points per game on the road this season
- 33.6 points per game on three or more days of rest
- 27 points in only game versus the Magic this season
- Under 29.5 points in four of his last five contests
- Under 29.5 points in four of last seven contests
- Under 29.5 points in nine of last 12 contests
Luka over was the initial lean for this prop, even if the 29.5 number sounded a little high based on his recent production prior to his injury. However, all of the key stats and trends suggest that the under may actually be the smarter play here, especially when one takes into account the fact that ThriveFantasy set this line a full two points higher than where this line currently stands at sportsbooks.
The juice is on the over on the 27.5, but 27.5 is a much more attainable number with a much greater win probability. When we factor in the fact that Luka scored just 27 points against the Magic’s number one scoring defense earlier this season, the under starts to make more sense. Orlando has also been tremendous in field goal percentage based defense, as they currently sit in the top five in the NBA.
Luka has gone under 29.5 points in four of his last five contests, and in four of his last seven overall. He was not much better if we expand the sample to his last 12 contests, as he has fallen under 29.5 in eight of those games. His scoring average on the season, and on the road this season both fall under this inflated number, so the under indeed looks like the play for tonight’s contest against a tough Orlando Magic defense.
Pick: Luka Doncic under 29.5 points (105 points)
Bradley Beal 34.5 points + rebounds (o 100/u 100)
- Averaging 29.1 points and 4.4 rebounds per game (33.5 combined)
- Averaging 29.4 and 4.5 rebounds on the road (33.9 combined)
- Averaging 31.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game on three or more days of rest (36.6 combined)
- Averaging 28 points and 3.5 rebounds against Cleveland this season (31.5 combined)
- Under in four of last five contests
- Over in seven of last 11 contests
- Over in seven straight before going under in four straight
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a team to target on player props, and this contest is no different. The line here was bumped up at ThriveFantasy due to the lackadaisical opponent but still appears to present some value. Beal scored 36 points, and hauled in two rebounds in his last contest against the Cavs this season, but managed just 20 points and five rebounds on a putrid .361 shooting in his first contest against Cleveland this season. The Cavaliers boast the sixth-worst scoring defense (points per game against), and the third-worst defense based on field goal percentage.
As long as Beal is aggressive (and he usually is), he should easily clear this number, potentially on points alone as he did in his last game against Cleveland. As mentioned, the total for this prop was propped up at ThriveFantasy due to the opponent but sits at the same number at sportsbooks. Thus his season long, and road averages both fall under the total. Beal has fallen short of 34.5 points + rebounds in four of his last five contests. With that being said, Beal was on a tear prior to that where he went over the total in seven straight contests.
The opponent tonight necessitates the over being the play. The juice is on the under at the books, but we get 100 points regardless of which side we pick for this prop at ThriveFantasy. Under would indeed be the play against most opponents at 34.5, but as mentioned, the Cavaliers have already allowed Beal to clear this total this season (on points alone), and are a good bet to do so once again.
Pick: Bradley Beal over 34.5 points + rebounds (100 points)
R.J. Barrett 17.5 points + assists (o 115/u 85)
- Averaging 13.6 and 2.4 assists on the season (16 combined)
- Averaging 15.8 points and 2.3 assists per game at home this season (18.1 combined)
- Averaging 14 and 2.3 assists on three or more days of rest (16.3 combined)
- Averaged two assists or less in each of the last three months
- Scored 12 points and three assists against Pacers in lone contest against them this season
- Under in each of last five contests
- Under in five of last eight contests
- Under in seven of last 10 contests
One only has to look at the points offered for the over and the under (115 for over, 85 for under) to know which way ThriveFantasy believes this prop is going. This may be because they are aware they set this total a full two points higher than where it sits at sportsbooks. With that being said, however, the juice is currently heavily on the over at 15.5 (-122). Of course, the win probability at 15.5 combined points and assists versus 17.5, are vastly different.
Barrett has been better at home this season where he averages 15.8 points, and 2.3 assists per game (18.1 combined). The rest of his averages all suggest an under play at 17.5, and an over at 15.5. Barrett has seen his minutes scaled back, and has logged under 22 minutes in four of his last five contests. There is a risk that he gets a major minute, and shot boost after being the leading scorer in the Rising Stars game, but banking on that without any actual evidence is not wise. Barrett has gone under in each of his last five contests, and in seven of his last 10 overall. He managed to record just 12 points and three assists in his only game against the Pacers this season, and should be in for tough sledding again with Victor Oladipo seeing his minutes restriction lifted. Oladipo is a strong defender who made the all-defensive team in his last full season.
The Pacers as a whole boast the number nine scoring defense, and the number 10 defense based on field goal percentage. With this total sitting a full two points above what this total is at the books, the higher win probability rests with the under.
Pick: R.J. Barrett under 17.5 points + assists (85 points)
Zion Williamson 32.5 points + assists + rebounds (o 90/u 110)
- Averaging 22.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists on the season (31.8 combined)
- Averaging 18.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and one assist on the road (27.4 combined)
- Averaging 26.5 points, eight rebounds, and four assists on three or more days of rest (38.5 combined)
- Averaging 25 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in last five contests (34.8 combined)
- Averaging 29:51 minutes per game in last five contests
- Recorded 31 points, nine rebounds, and five assists against Portland two games ago (45 combined)
- Over in each of last two contests
- Under in three of last five contests
- Under in six of 10 contests played this season
This is a higher total than expected for Zion Williamson. With that being said, Zion has already faced Portland this season. He easily cleared the total in that contest by recording 31 points, nine rebounds, and five assists (45 combined). Portland is a team to target on player props as a whole, as they boast the fifth-worst scoring defense, and the fourth-worst defense based on field goal percentage. His overall average on the season and his road average both suggest the under as the play, but need to be taken in context.
Head coach Alvin Gentry rather frustratingly limited Zion’s minutes in his first couple of contests, which has pulled his average down. He has logged at least 27 minutes per game in seven of his eight games since and should see at least that many minutes tonight against the Trailblazers. This prop is listed at a much less favorable 33.5 combined points, assists, and rebounds at sportsbooks, which suggests immediate value in the 32.5 combined total for this contest at ThriveFantasy. Thanks to going over the total in each of his last two contests, Zion has averaged 34.8 combined points, assists, and rebounds over his last five games.
The over appears to be the play here, but only has a slightly higher win probability than the under. That being said, Zion is a strong bet to go over this total against Portland again, and is one of the top plays on the board for ThriveFantasy’s FantasyPros contest.
Pick: Zion Williamson over 32.5 points + assists + rebounds (90 points)