ThriveFantasy NBA Best Bets for February 26th, 2020
ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.
Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two correct selections pay a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pay a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks pay an 11 times multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount.
The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NBA involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.
Fantasy sports players, especially DFS players, have an edge when it comes to player prop betting. DFS players set lineups taking into account potential production when weighing competing options against each other. This is most pronounced with the NBA and the NFL DFS players. As such, diving into prop-based DFS contests is a smart way to further monetize your knowledge. While the Contest Lobby requires you to select 10 different props, you can still make a return even if you do not get every over/under prediction right.
To identify whether to select the over or the under, we will take a look at some recent trends and key stats. We will also take any injuries and narratives into account. Finally, we will use lines at sportsbooks to identify whether the lines hold any immediate value. Let’s dig in.
Bradley Beal: 31.5 points (over 90 points/under 110)
- Averaging 30.1 points per game on the season
- Averaging 30.4 points per game at home this season
- Averaging 36.2 points per game in nine February contests
- Over in two straight contests
- Under in five of last seven contests
- Over in nine of last 15 contests
- Recorded 34 points vs. Nets in only game against them this season
Bradley Beal is on fire. Need proof? He became the first player since Kobe Bryant with back-to-back 50-point games in his last outing. He has been hot more often than not over the last month and has scored 32 or more points in nine of his last 15 contests. He went over in seven straight and under in five straight before recording the consecutive 50-point outings. Thanks to the two scoring outbursts, he is averaging 36.2 points per game in February.
The Brooklyn Nets boast the number seven percentage-based defense, but relying on standing in the league as opposed to the actual percentage can be misleading. They allow opponents to shoot .481% from the floor, which is a horrible number. Their scoring defense ranks 17th in the league (110.6 ppg allowed) and is more indicative of their standing outside of the paint when DeAndre Jordan is in the game. The juice is on the over at sportsbooks, as it is hard to fade Beal with how well he’s playing. The shot volume does not hurt either. Beal recorded 34 points in his only contest against the Nets this season, and he is a good bet to clear 31.5 based on how scorching he has been since the All-Star break. Lock the over in for 90 points at ThriveFantasy.
Pick: Bradley Beal over 31.5 points (90 points)
R.J. Barrett: 2.5 assists (o 115/u 85)
- Averaging 2.4 assists per game on the season
- Averaging 2.5 assists per game on the road
- Averaging 2.2 assists per game in six February contests
- Over in two of last four contests
- Over in five of last nine contests
- Recorded two assists in lone game vs. Hornets this season
R.J. Barrett is riding high after the Rising Stars Challenge, as he is since averaging 19 points, five rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 29 minutes per game. When Barrett sees minutes, he is a much more comfortable bet to clear 2.5 assists. However, he recorded just two assists when facing Charlotte earlier this season. The juice is stunningly heavy on the under at the books (-158), which suggests both the sharps and the casuals are slamming the under. With that said, Barrett averaged over three assists in the first two months of the season when he had a larger role. With Barrett now seeing increased minutes after his Rising Stars performance for Team World, he is a much better bet than given credit for to record three or more dimes. The under has the higher win probability, but recent trends suggest the over is the smarter play. Take the 115 points at ThriveFantasy, and take Barrett over 2.5 assists.
Pick: R.J. Barrett over 2.5 assists (115 points)
Trae Young: 30.5 points (o 105/ u 95)
- Averaging 29.9 points per game on the season
- Averaging 31.9 points per game at home this season
- Averaging 32.3 points per game in nine February contests
- Averaging 34 points per game against Orlando this season
- Under in three of last four contests
- Under in five of last nine contests
Trae Young at 30.5 points is an interesting number. He is battling the flu and is currently labeled as a game-time decision, so be certain he is playing before entering this pick (or feel as confident in your first ice pick). This total is set above his season scoring average, but Young has upped that mark by two points at home. He has been even better in February, averaging a robust 32.3 per game. He scored 39 points in his first matchup against the Orlando Magic this season and 29 on February 10. The points are on the under here, as the Magic boast the number one scoring defense and the number one percentage-based defense. With that said, the over/under for this contest sits at 227 points, and these two teams scored 261 combined points in the last meeting. Young is going to need to be aggressive to hit this number, but with John Collins forcing the Magic to worry about more than just stopping the All-Star guard, the lean is on the over here. Take the 105 on the over at ThriveFantasy.
Pick: Trae Young over 30.5 points (105 points)
James Harden: 41.5 points + assists (o 110/ u 90)
- Averaging 42.7 combined points + assists (35.3 points, 7.4 assists)
- Averaging 43 combined points + assists at home this season
- Averaging 42.1 combined points + assists in nine February contests
- Averaging 48.5 combined points + assists against Memphis this season
- Over in two straight contests
- Over in three of last four contests
- Over in five of last nine contests
I thought that the key stats and trends would be more neutral than they are, especially after seeing that this line sits at 40.5 at sportsbooks, and the juice is currently on the under. James Harden is averaging 42.7 combined points + assists (35.3 points, 7.4 assists) on the season, and 43 combined points + assists at home. He has quieted a bit in the scoring department this month, but the combined tally is still over the posted total. The assist totals are really encouraging, as the 8.4 in February can help propel him over this number even if he scores fewer points than expected.
He has gone over in five of his last nine overall and is a good bet to do so once again against a Memphis Grizzlies team that struggles on the defensive end. The Grizzlies have the eighth-worst scoring defense (114.9 PPG allowed), and the 17th-ranked defense in terms of opposing shooting percentage (.494). Harden has torched Memphis this season with a 41-point, six-assist outing on January 14 and a 44-point, six-assist performance back on November 4. Russell Westbrook is expected to play tonight, but Eric Gordon is out, which should allow Harden to have a high enough usage rate to click. Take the 110 points and lock in Harden over at ThriveFantasy.
Pick: James Harden over 41.5 points + assists (110 points)