“You can’t win your league at the draft, but you can lose it.” This quote can be applied to almost any fantasy format. Many times we are cautious and hoping to avoid the landmines within the early rounds.
However, you will have to ask yourself if you want to select the boring player or take a risk at some point in your draft. The boring player can be viewed as “safe,” but that player also has a slim chance of returning value. When we do take a risk on a selection, we want to target players who can pay dividends.
In this article, we will look at some players who carry risk for different reasons. However, these players could be league-winners if all goes well. Fortune favors the bold, so let’s examine some players who might be worth taking a risk on, even if you have to close your eyes before clicking “draft.”
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Pete Alonso (1B – NYM)
I know, I know. “What’s risky about drafting the reigning NL Rookie of the Year?” Alonso clocked 53 home runs in his historic debut season. However, there are reasons to fear that he may not be able to replicate what he did in 2019.
For one, we have only seen Alonso do this once. Granted, it was his only MLB season, but he does not carry the track record of proven big-league hitters. This is relevant because Alonso sported a 7.7% HR rate, which was better than elite players like Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Cody Bellinger. In addition, Alonso played in 161 games out of a possible 162. He may not be so fortunate with his health in 2020. Finally, Alonso is a first baseman, where many of the best hitters in baseball play in the field. If he doesn’t provide gaudy home-run numbers, he will be easily replaceable.
The upside for Alonso is clear. It’s possible that he is the next elite hitter to enter the league. If he comes close to reproducing his 2019 numbers, Alonso will return value, even though he is being selected within the first three rounds.
Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS)
The Red Sox’s shortstop took some steps forward during 2019 in a few major categories. Bogaerts saw his batting average get above .300 for the first time since 2015 and he also sported a career-high slugging percentage of 0.557. The key question is whether the veteran infielder has progressed his game or benefited from an outlier season in 2019.
One factor working against him is he will be hitting in a weaker lineup in 2020. The trade of Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers was well-documented and a player of his caliber leaves a big hole in the Boston batting order. However, the upside is there for Bogaerts. He is currently being drafted within the first three rounds and he is going as the seventh shortstop off the board. If 2019 was the start of a trend, Bogaerts could be a pick that returns value for fantasy owners at a shallow position.
Eloy Jimenez (OF – CWS)
Jimenez was frustrating for fantasy owners in 2019 since he had a slow start to the season before missing 40 games over the course of the year. However, his finish to last season is reason to have optimism for his upcoming campaign.
In his first MLB season, the White Sox outfielder showed tremendous power as he clocked 31 home runs in a limited number of games. His draft cost is not significant, as he currently carries an ADP of 45 among hitters and 65 overall. Keep in mind that as an outfielder, he is at a position that can be easily replaced if he is not putting up numbers. Fantasy owners need Jimenez to stay healthy and show better consistency from the start of the season to avoid relinquishing him to the waivers. Following a strong debut, he is a player who could be worth chasing his upside in 2020.
Josh Bell (1B – PIT)
After a breakout season in which he was in the NL MVP conversation for some time, Bell finds himself being drafted as the 52nd hitter off the board and the 78th player overall. The Pittsburgh first baseman hit for an average of .277 and racked up a whopping 116 RBIs in his 2019 campaign. So what gives with his ADP? Well, it has to do with the position that Bell calls home.
While his 31 home runs were nice, they simply don’t move the needle enough at a position that features plenty of the league’s best power hitters. Currently being selected as the 10th first basemen off the board in fantasy drafts, Bell could deliver some major value for fantasy owners if he continues to build off his strong 2019. However, fantasy owners will need to see the average improve and increased home-run production in order for Bell to be a true game-changer at the position. Betting on Bell’s talent may not be a bad idea.
Nelson Cruz (DH – MIN)
Cruz is the embodiment of the type of player that I have trouble pulling the trigger on. For one, he will turn 40 years old in the middle of this season. Because of his age, he is beginning to miss more and more games each season. Finally, he is a player that only carries DH eligibility.
If he is not clogging your utility slot, he is most likely in one of your limited IL roster positions. However, as we keep doubting him, Cruz continues to put up gaudy numbers and return value for those willing to take the risk on the veteran power hitter. In 2019, he hit 41 home runs and drove in 108 RBIs in just 120 games. Cruz even managed to hit above .300 for just the second time in his career. Most are doubting that Cruz can repeat such a performance, which is exactly why he currently has an overall ADP of 84. The veteran and injury discount could make Cruz a league-winner once again in 2020.
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Shane Bryant is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Shane, follow him on Twitter @ShaneBryant31.
