Over the past month, I’ve been running through three draft strategies I’ve designed for my roto and head to head fantasy baseball leagues. In case you missed them, they are the Marmol Strategy, Pocket Rockets and the Bichette Strategy. I axed Moneyball Method from the lineup this year because it is increasingly too difficult to pull off unfortunately with the changes in starting pitcher durability and the home run surge. Instead, I decided to write a strategy piece on points leagues, seeing as though I’ve been littered with questions about them.
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First of all, let me get this out of the way: Points leagues are ridiculous in fantasy baseball. In fact, I’ll go as far as saying that it isn’t even fantasy baseball. You’ll see why in a moment, but in short, it is just a numbers game. With that said, you can worry about getting into a different league or changing your league settings next winter, but you are here because you want to win this year so I’ll help you do that today.
What are the main goals in points league drafts?
- Ignore relief pitchers entirely
- Seriously, don’t draft a single relief pitcher
- Speed doesn’t matter, forget about it
- Durability is king, both on the mound and in the batter’s box
- Like OBP leagues, walks are extremely useful
- I’m just gonna say it again for those in the back: DON’T DRAFT ANY RELIEVERS!
- Instead, you need to draft TEN reliable starting pitchers who won’t lose their job
Who should I target?
It is important to note that all points leagues are different than one another. ESPN standard points leagues, for instance, value steals at just 1 point each. Razzball Slam values steals at 5 points each, so if you miss that point, you’ll miss out on the fact that Adalberto Mondesi is worth an extra 150-200 points in that league. Plug your league settings into our auction calculator and let the math tell you just how much better (or worse) players are projected to be in your league compared to their worth in a roto or H2H league.
When I plugged in ESPN standard points league settings, it ran our Zeile consensus projections through with the settings and spat out the following player archetypes as the largest beneficiaries and biggest duds. As you can tell, durable starting pitchers rule and relief pitchers drool. Likewise, speedsters take a serious backseat to sabermetric-friendly hitters like Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen.
TARGET Durable Starting Pitchers
- Patrick Corbin
- Aaron Nola
- Zack Greinke
- Jose Berrios
- Trevor Bauer
- Lance Lynn
- Madison Bumgarner
- Kyle Hendricks
- Mike Minor
- Marco Gonzales
- Rick Porcello
- Julio Teheran
- Jon Lester
- Jose Quintana
AVOID IP-risky Starting Pitchers
- Chris Sale
- Blake Snell
- Mike Clevinger
- James Paxton
- Tyler Glasnow
- Carlos Carrasco
- Shohei Ohtani
- Dinelson Lamet
- David Price
- Jesus Luzardo
- Julio Urias
- Lance McCullers
- Brendan McKay
- Josh James
TARGET SPs who qualify at RP
- Brandon Woodruff
- Max Fried
- Carlos Carrasco
- Kenta Maeda
- Carlos Martinez
- Dakota Hudson
- Jose Urquidy
- Kyle Gibson
- Adrian Houser
- Josh Lindblom
- Elieser Hernandez
AVOID All actual relievers
- Do you actually need a list of the 50 relevant relievers
- No? Ok, good.
TARGET walk-heavy hitters
- Bryce Harper
- Marcus Semien
- Rhys Hoskins
- Yasmani Grandal
- Michael Conforto
- Carlos Santana
- Cesar Hernandez
- Andrew McCutchen
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Joey Votto
- Matt Carpenter
- Justin Smoak
AVOID stolen base reliant hitters
- Trea Turner
- Starling Marte
- Adalberto Mondesi
- Jonathan Villar
- Whit Merrifield
- Victor Robles
- Tim Anderson
- Elvis Andrus
- Lorenzo Cain
- Mallex Smith
TARGET HR boppers with BA concerns
TARGET Durable boring veteran hitters
- Nolan Arenado
- Manny Machado
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Trey Mancini
- Eric Hosmer
- Starlin Castro
- Kevin Pillar
- Kole Calhoun
- Nick Markakis
Now, take a look at the 25-man team I assembled using our Draft Simulation Software. As you can see, I drafted from the 10th spot which would be ideal for points leagues since Arenado and Scherzer are both top 8 players according to our Zeile Projections. Additionally, I did land ten full-time starters who should all have no trouble reaching 160 innings. Two of those ten are relief pitcher eligible which will give my team a big boost over those who elected to draft Kirby Yates in the 6th round.
- 1.10 Nolan Arenado (3B)
- 2.3 Max Scherzer (SP)
- 3.10 Jose Altuve (2B)
- 4.3 Patrick Corbin (SP)
- 5.10 Manny Machado (SS)
- 6.3 J.T. Realmuto (C)
- 7.10 Zack Greinke (SP)
- 8.3 Eddie Rosario (OF)
- 9.10 Mike Moustakas (2B)
- 10.3 Rhys Hoskins (1B)
- 11.10 Madison Bumgarner (SP)
- 12.3 Lance Lynn (SP)
- 13.10 Yuli Gurriel (CI)
- 14.3 Willie Calhoun (OF)
- 15.10 Edwin Encarnacion (UTL)
- 16.3 Didi Gregorius (MI)
- 17.10 Adam Eaton (OF)
- 18.3 Andrew McCutchen (UTL)
- 19.10 Shin-Soo Choo (Bench)
- 20.3 Starlin Castro (Bench)
- 21.10 Dakota Hudson (“RP”)
- 22.3 Jon Lester (SP)
- 23.10 Rick Porcello (SP)
- 24.3 Julio Teheran (SP)
- 25.10 Josh Lindblom (“RP”)
Thanks for reading and good luck!
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