Last week’s Honda Classic was a very fun event to watch. Sungjae Im showed a lot of guts in winning his first PGA event, and Tommy Fleetwood showed that nerves can affect everyone when he put his approach shot in the water on the 18th hole.

We’ll stay in Florida for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Five of the world’s top-10 players (24 out of the top-35) are in the field this week for the second of four straight tour stops in the sunshine state. The world’s number one player, Rory McIlroy, comes in as the heavy favorite (5:1). Tommy Fleetwood (14:1), Bryson DeChambeau (16:1), and Hideki Matsuyama (17:1) are the only other golfers below 20:1 odds in the betting markets.

DraftKings provides us with a salary cap of $50,000 to select six golfers (average roster spot of $8,333). Out of the seven golfers priced at $9,500 or above, only Rory McIlory ($11,800) and Tommy Fleetwood ($11,000) are in the 11K range. Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600), Bryson DeChambeau ($10,400), and Xander Schauffele ($10,000) are the only other golfers with five-figure price tags. The site has a variety of contests at different price points starting at $0.10 per entry. Their most popular tournament is probably the $5 “Drive the Green” with a $150,000 first-place prize.

All the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. In fact, most of the plays mentioned are based upon my customized model that includes a variety of statistics and results. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. This article is written early in the week, and additional news, research, and roster construction could lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction — especially when dealing with possible withdrawals.

Remember that golf is very difficult to play, but DFS golf is even tougher. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the course of a golf season. However, from week-to-week, major variance can occur. Any golfer on the PGA Tour is capable of winning an event. On the flip side, even the best golfers in the world are capable of missing the cut in a given week (e.g., Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, and Justin Rose last week).

Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.

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Tournament Notes

• The Arnold Palmer Invitational has been played at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge since 1979. The course was owned by Arnold Palmer and is located near Orlando, Florida. Bay Hill is a par 72 course measuring 7,454 yards.
• This tournament is one of the few (WGCs, majors, The Memorial, and Genesis) in which the winner receives a three-year PGA exemption. Additionally, as one of the few tournaments with “invitational” status, there are only 120 players scheduled to tee it up this week. The top-65 golfers (and ties) after Thursday will make the cut and play the weekend.
• Previous API winners scheduled to tee it up this week include Francesco Molinari (2019), Rory McIlroy (2018), Marc Leishman (2017), Jason Day (2016), Matt Every (2015 & 2014), Vijay Singh (2007), Phil Mickelson (1997), and Robert Gamez (1990).
• Last year, Francesco Molinari shot a 64 (low round of the week) on Sunday to defeat Matthew Fitzpatrick, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Tommy Fleetwood, and Sungjae Im.
• Last year’s cut was +1, and Rafa Cabrera Bello was the first-round leader after shooting a 65. The cut lines were +1, +3, and Even for the three years previous.
• The average winning score in the last five years has been 15.4 under par (-12, -18, -11, -17, and -19).
• Adam Scott is one of three players sharing the course record of 62 when he shot it in the first round of the 2014 event Andy Bean and Greg Norman have also shot 62s.
• The Bermuda greens are right around the tour average in size at 7,200 square feet, and they tend to play fast and firm.
• The fairways are made up of Bermuda and average out to about 34 yards in width. This is slightly wider than average, but the rough tends to be penal.
• Though not as difficult as last week’s PGA National Golf Course, the wind can still be a factor, and the course can cause havoc on the golfers. Bay Hill has more than 80 bunkers (35 are in the fairway) and eight holes with water coming into play (including the final three holes). In fact, there were 239 balls that found their way into the drink last year.
• Bay Hill consists of four Par 3s (averaging 216 yards), 10 Par 4s (five of which average more than 450 yards), and four Par 5s (averaging 550 yards).
• The average approach shot on the Par 4s is 170 yards.
• In typical years, a little more than 40% of fantasy scoring will come from the four Par 5s.
• International players have won each of the past four years at Bay Hill. In fact, all of the top-five finishers last year were made up of non-Americans.
• Since this is an invitational and only 120 golfers are playing, a higher percentage of the field (at least 54%) will make the cut. This leads to more “stars-and-scrubs” type lineups.

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. From a stats perspective, this week’s best golfers (in ranked order) are Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Brooks Koepka, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Adam Scott, Tyrrell Hatton, and Byeong Hun An.

Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Max Homa, Tyrrell Hatton, Maverick McNealy, Abraham Ancer, Wyndham Clark, and Nick Taylor. Among the golfers in this week’s field, Tommy Fleetwood has the longest made cut streak with 33. Collin Morikawa (20), Matthew Fitzpatrick (17), Tyrrell Hatton (12), Talor Gooch (11) Maverick McNealy (11), and Adam Scott (10) are the only other players in the field with double-digit cuts streaks.

Course History
The golfers who have gained the most total strokes at this course during the last five years (in ranked order) include Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Francesco Molinari, Marc Leishman, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Zach Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Emiliano Grillo. Only eight golfers in this field have multiple top-10 finishes here in the last five years (Rory McIlory, Francesco Molinari, Marc Leishman, Tommy Fleetwood, Kevin Chappell, Lucas Glover, Jason Kokrak, and Justin Rose). Zach Johnson has made the cut in 15 of his 16 previous starts here.

Approach Game
Historically speaking, the approach game is more important than any other statistic here at Bay Hill. In looking at top-five finishers here, SG: Approach was 2x more important than SG: OTT and 2.5x more important than SG: ARG. The 10 golfers with the best approach game (in ranked order according to my custom stat model) are Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishman, Xander Schauffele, Emiliano Grillo, Russell Knox, Ryan Moore, and Adam Scott.

Official World Golf Ranking

All the statistics and course history are good to know, but sports (in particular, DFS golf) oftentimes comes down to playing the best golfers. Sure, salary is involved, but the more good golfers you can fit in your lineups, then the better chance you give yourself. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Rory McIlory (No. 1), Brooks Koepka (No. 3), Adam Scott (No. 7), Patrick Reed (No. 9), Tommy Fleetwood (No. 10), Xander Schauffele (No. 12), Justin Rose (No. 13), Bryson DeChambeau (No. 14), and Tony Finau (No. 15), and Hideki Matsuyama (No. 19)

Favorite Elite Play

Rory McIlroy ($11,800)
He’s the best golfer in the world, and he’s playing like it. Throw in some wonderful course history at Bay Hill, and he is the guy that I expect to contend on Sunday for the win. He has finished no worse than sixth here in the last three years, including a win in 2018. He has been an automatic top-five machine this season, as he is riding a streak of six-straight performances. Overall, in his last 10 events, he has eight top-five finishes, including two wins.

Favorite Upper-Tier Plays

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600)
He finished T6 at the WGC-Mexico and T5 at the Genesis Invitational. In his last 10 events, he has only one finish worse than 16th. During that stretch, he has five top-five finishes. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks third in fantasy scoring and fourth in total strokes gained. The only thing in the way between him and a win (other than Rory) is a flat stick that constantly disappoints. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks 102nd in strokes gained putting. He has made the cut in each of his five API starts, including a T6 in 2016.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,400)
He has three top-10 finishes in his last four events, including a runner-up performance two weeks ago at the WGC-Mexico. When he gets hot, he tends to stay hot. He has gotten stronger, and his motivation should be high after falling just short to Patrick Reed in Mexico despite shooting a final round 65. In the last 24 rounds, he is fifth in fantasy scoring and eighth in total strokes gained.

Adam Scott ($9,700) 
He has one of the purest swings and is a world-class ball-striker. In his last 50 rounds played, he is third in this field in fantasy scoring and fifth in total strokes gained. He has six top-10s in his last 12 tournaments, including wins at the Genesis and the Australian PGA Championship. His most recent start resulted in a T26 at the WGC-Mexico. He has made the cut at Bay Hill each of the last four times he has played here and has finished third in 2014 and 2004.

Favorite Mid-Tier Plays          

Collin Morikawa ($8,400)
He has made 21 straight professional cuts dating back to his T64 at the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational. This demonstrates his solid floor, and he also has a win and a runner-up performance to show his ceiling. Even though he has had decent finishes, he is one of those golfers who typically outscores his finishing position. This outstanding ball-striker is fourth in strokes gained approach and eighth in fantasy scoring over the last 24 rounds.

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100)
I faded him two weeks ago at the WGC-Mexico because I was concerned about that being his first event after his wrist injury. He finished T6. I will no longer fade him. In his last seven worldwide events, he has six top-20 finishes, including a win at the Turkish Airlines Open, a T6 in Mexico and at the CJ Cup. In the last 24 rounds played, he is eighth in both fantasy scoring and total strokes gained. He has made the cut here each of the last three years, including a fourth-place finish in 2017.

Max Homa ($7,900)
I absolutely love Homa this week. He took a week off after playing five-straight weeks. During that stretch, he finished T5, T14, T6, and T9. Overall, he has made the cut in 15/16 worldwide events, including nine in a row. In his last 24 rounds played, he is 11th in fantasy scoring and 12th in total strokes gained.

Abraham Ancer ($7,800)
He has made the cut in 10 straight events worldwide. During that stretch, he has four top-10 finishes. He was T12 in his last start at the WGC-Mexico. In the last 24 rounds, he is third in total strokes gained and fourth in fantasy scoring.

Favorite Lower-Tier Plays

Maverick McNealy ($7,400)
He is only $100 more than he was last week in a tougher field after finishing 11th. He will most likely be my highest-owned golfer this week. He has made the cut in 11 straight events, and he has three top-15 finishes in his last four starts.

Carlos Ortiz ($7,100)
He has made 10/11 cuts, including three top-five performances. Recently, he has finished T16 at the WGC-Mexico, T26 at Genesis, and T25 at the WMPO. As for the API, he finished T29 (2019) and T21 (2015).

Matthew NeSmith ($6,800)
His T38 last week at the Honda was his eighth-straight made cut. In his last 10 events, he has nine made cuts and four top-20 finishes, including a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open. He is seventh in total strokes gained and 17th in fantasy scoring over his last 24 rounds played.

Patrick Rodgers ($6,600)
His T21 at the Honda gave him his seventh made cut in his last eight starts. Included in that is a T9 at the Farmers. He has three top-30 finishes in his last four events. He has a decent history at Bay Hill finishing T46, T7, MC, and T20 in the last four years.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.