Dynasty Rookie Sleepers (2020 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Sleepers (2020 Fantasy Football)

With the dynasty rookie draft season already underway, potential sleepers have started to emerge. Not all sleepers are players available in the later rounds of your rookie drafts. A sleeper is an ADP value that can be had as a potential steal relative to their projected production. In this article, we will take a look at 10 players who may prove to be going much lower than they should be in rookie drafts.

This is a deep draft class with Pro-Bowl level talents promising to be available into the third and perhaps even the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Here are a few of the players that stood out as potential sleepers. 

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – LSU): 7th Overall ADP
Clyde Edwards-Helaire appears to have lost some of his luster after timing slower in the 40-yard dash than some had hoped. He has the talent and ability to become a top-three dynasty rookie draft pick after landing spots are cemented, and he represents a steal in the vast majority of drafts that take place before the actual NFL Draft. CEH led all running backs in this draft with a 7.44 percent big play percentage (percentage of carries that went for 20 or more yards), showing notable explosion all throughout his junior season. He was one of the best backs in the country and played in a pro-style offense spearheaded by former New Orleans Saints assistant Joe Brady. He runs with great vision, excellent cutting ability, and great contact balance — three traits that do not show up in a straight-line track setting. It’s entirely conceivable that CEH emerges as the top dynasty running back from this draft class. Sleep on Clyde Edwards-Helaire at your own peril. 

Laviska Shenault (WR – Colorado): 12th Overall ADP
A talented receiver who opened the 2019 college season as a top-three wideout on most draft boards, Laviska Shenault had another injury-shortened season for Colorado. From a raw tools perspective, Shenault remains one of the top-five talents at his position. He was injured at the NFL Combine, a fact that’s often overlooked when people cite his slower than expected 40 time. The dynasty community’s obsession with the overrated measure of track speed has led to Shenault being available at 12th overall and beyond. It will be a joy to watch the damage he can do at the next level with an NFL caliber quarterback, and a (hopefully) creative offensive mind. The Kyle Shanahan’s and Sean Payton’s of the world will undoubtedly brandish the receiver with a premium draft grade as opposed to some other teams, simply because they are aware that they know how to utilize him to his potential. Even with an ADP of 12th overall, Shenault has the goods to far exceed his draft position.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – Vanderbilt): 19th Overall ADP
As a fifth-year senior, Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s projected dynasty stock is much lower than it will likely be following the NFL Draft. He is lasting into the second round in some dynasty rookie drafts primarily because the soon to be rookie is the same age as Saquon Barkley, who will be entering his third year in the league. While this is a legitimate concern for his dynasty shelf life, it’s not as much of a concern for NFL teams who may view him as a starter. He will still receive the same draft capital as he would if he was turning 22 this year instead of 23. Vaughn is arguably one of the top-six talents in this draft class at the running back position, and he has a very high chance of being drafted to at least compete for a starting gig. Vaughn is a talented, physical runner who could, depending on his spot in the depth chart, enter the RB2 conversation as a rookie.

Henry Ruggs (WR – Alabama): 10th Overall ADP
One of the most divisive skill players in the 2020 NFL Draft class, Ruggs is loved by film grinders but frowned upon by the analytics community. His tape reveals a wide receiver with Marquise Brown level talent and speed in a 6’2″ frame. His numbers reveal a wide receiver who never placed better than third in receiving on his own team. Context explains this, as he played on a team with four other first-round talents at wide receiver (Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle). He also played with Irv Smith Jr. in his freshman and sophomore seasons. While his ADP of 10th overall is within the range he should be considered, in some drafts, he is lasting until the middle of the second round. This will likely change once it is confirmed that an NFL team was willing to take him in the first round, making him a potential steal in dynasty rookie draft rooms that allow him to fall that far. More than just a vertical receiver, Ruggs, much like Brown, can also dominate on drags, slants, outs, posts, and in routes. There is a lot to be excited about when it comes to Ruggs, especially if he lands on a team with a good quarterback and a creative system. 

A.J. Dillon (RB – Boston College): 16th Overall ADP
A.J. Dillon had a remarkable 2020 NFL Combine that should have firmly entrenched him in the day-two mix. However, he is still being treated somewhat as an afterthought in dynasty rookie drafts. Often lasting until the mid to late second round, despite his first-round talent, the dynasty community seems to be highly concerned with his landing spot — and what said landing spot would mean for his dynasty success. He has lead back traits, but he’s also a bit more depth chart dependent than many would like. With that said, there may not be many running backs in the league who offer as much on early downs, making Dillon a potential steal so late in the second round. He proved at the combine that he had better hands than many had expected, a trait that may get him drafted to compete for a three-down role. 

Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR – Liberty): 24th Overall ADP
While Antonio Gandy-Golden shines in his game film, unfortunately, the majority of his competition has come against the likes of Hampton, Maine, and Massachusetts. His lack of strong competition had led to some doubts about his ability to transition to the talent level in the NFL. His numbers dropped when playing FBS Power 5 teams this past season: from 6.1 receptions, 102.4 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns per game on 16.71 yards per reception to 5.7 receptions, 82.3 yards, and 0.66 touchdowns per game on 14.53 yards per reception. These raw numbers have led box score scouts to express skepticism towards AGG, a sentiment that NFL teams likely will not share. His 82.3 receiving per game against the Power 5 is a higher number than what Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Bryan Edwards, and Denzel Mims recorded in 2019. He shined during Senior Bowl week, and he looked just as dominant when playing Power 5 competition during the season. AGG has the talent to emerge as one of the top-five talents in a deep wide receiver class, and he’s a tremendous value in the late second to the third round of current dynasty rookie drafts. 

Van Jefferson (WR – Florida): 44th Overall ADP
Van Jefferson’s route running skills rise to the level of a savant. It is rare to see college receivers so adept at beating press and utilizing a cornerback’s leverage to create separation. He uses great stem to his routes, and he can get open at will. He burned the top corners in the SEC on a regular basis, with some of his best tape coming when he did so to two of the best corners in college football in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kristian Fulton of LSU. He was diagnosed with a foot fracture during the combine medical checks, and he may slip into day three as a result. The unfortunate injury is going to make him a steal not only for his NFL team, but also for his future dynasty owners as well. Make sure to remember his name from the third round on, as he has the skillset to be an immediate contributor to whatever NFL team he lands on. 

Albert Okwuegbunam (TE – Missouri): 31st Overall ADP
In the conversation to be one of the first two tight ends off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft class that featured Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, and Irv Smith Jr., Albert Okwuegbunam seemingly took a step back in 2020. He seemed disinterested at times without Drew Lock under center, which makes it all the more confusing as to why he decided to go back to school for the 2019 season. Perhaps he had dreams of a guaranteed first-round salary, but he stopped caring as much when he realized that Kelly Bryant simply could not elevate him into the first-round conversation. Whatever the case may be, he’s clearly the most talented receiving tight end prospect in this draft class. A deeper look into his numbers reveals that while his receiving yard market share dropped from 12.1 to 11.4 from his 2018 to 2019 season, his receiving touchdown market share exploded from 21.4 to 35.2 percent. Although he currently has the highest ADP among tight ends, he is coming off the board behind names like Cole Kmet, Hunter Bryant, Adam Trautman, and Brycen Hopkins in some drafts. Albert O has instant starter upside, and he should be considered as soon as the second round in dynasty rookie drafts.  

Jordan Love (QB – Utah State): 32nd Overall ADP
Fantasy gamers who are not fans of a team or teams in the Mountain West Conference may not know Jordan Love very well. The box score scout will note that his numbers dropped off from their 2018 level, and they may dismiss Love as a prospect. PFF will tell you that he had 26 turnover-worthy plays in 2019 (Sam Darnold had more in his final college season). What his critics will often not share with you is that he lost nine offensive starters and that he had to deal with a new system and coaching staff in 2019. His 2018 game tape is terrific, and you can still see the same player in his 2019 tape, albeit more sporadically. Love has a little Deshaun Watson to his game, and he could eventually turn into an elite-level starter in that vein. His throw in the tweet below typifies why film grinders are so in love with Love. Since he is lasting until 32nd overall on average in single-QB leagues, dynasty managers should be jumping at the chance to land a potential future QB1 at such a great value. 

DeeJay Dallas (RB – Miami): 49th Overall ADP
One of the most exciting running backs in this draft class, DeeJay Dallas is a potential committee member who can be had in the late fourth to the early fifth round of 12 team dynasty rookie drafts. He has starter level upside, but he’s more likely to be deployed as a spot starter who handles 10-14 touches per game. In 2019, Dallas had the third-highest chunk play percentage (percentage of carries to go for 10 or more yards) in this draft class at 18.26 percent, and he had the seventh-highest big play percentage (percentage of carries to go for 20 or more yards) at 5.22 percent. Dallas has RB2 upside if he gets starters touches, and should immediately be viewed as one as the must-own handcuffs in fantasy football. He is arguably the player with the highest upside that will still be available in the fourth round of dynasty rookie drafts.

On the bubble: Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR – Michigan), Michael Pittman (WR – USC), Eno Benjamin (RB – Arizona State), KJ Hamler (WR – Penn State), Reggie Corbin (RB – Illinois).

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.

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