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Fantasy Football Impact: Kirk Cousins Signs Extension with Vikings (2020)

Fantasy Football Impact: Kirk Cousins Signs Extension with Vikings (2020)

“You like that!?” If you are a fan of the Kirk Cousins era in Minnesota, then Monday’s news that he’s re-upped with the Vikings is music to your ears. As reported by Ian Rapoport, Cousins secured $96 million over three years, with $61 million guaranteed at signing.

With the departure of offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski and no direct path to replace Cousins in the near future, locking Cousins in for an additional two-plus season gives the Vikings some stability headed into the 2020 season. This move has far-reaching impact in both redraft, and dynasty leagues, so let’s examine the fallout.

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Vote of Confidence

As noted above, former offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski has moved on and in his place steps Gary Kubiak. In 22 seasons of offensive coordinator experience Kubiak led offenses have finished in the top 11 in pass attempts 13 times. This is in stark contrast to the 2019 Vikings offense that finished 30th in pass attempts per game with 29.2 attempts per game. Kubiak has never led a passing attack that has finished worse than 22nd in pass attempts.

With a coordinator who favors a more pass-heavy approach and after being handed another $61m in guaranteed money, Cousins should be expected to improve upon his QB17 (per game) finish in 2019. Digging into Cousins 2019 stats reveals that his disappointing production from last season can be blamed on volume. Though he finished just 24th in pass attempts in 2019, he tied for the sixth-best Adjusted Yards Per Attempt with 8.7. His 3,407 air yards ranked 23rd in the league. With more volume, there’s every reason in the world to believe that Cousins will return to the heights he saw when he was with Washington. Utilizing DLF’s Yearly Data App, we can see the decline in Cousin’s production since becoming the Vikings starter in 2018.

After two top-end QB1 seasons, Cousins drop to a back end QB1 levels in 2018 and become a mid-QB2 last year. If you’re looking for a quarterback to buy low on (and who isn’t), Cousins could be your man.

Wide Receivers

It’s been widely reported that Stefon Diggs isn’t enamored with Cousins and would love to be moved to another team. Diggs has been sending cryptic Tweets out for months now, and his tweet from Monday is undoubtedly only going to throw more fuel on the fire.

Diggs’ unhappiness could be related to a lack of volume in the passing game (but again that was likely a function of Kevin Stefanski’s run at all costs offense). A year after setting a career-high in targets with 149 Stefon Diggs saw a substantial decrease in 2019 with 94 targets, the fewest number of targets since his rookie season in 2015. His targets dropped from 9.3 per game in 2018 to 6.2 per game last year.

I’m going to assume that Diggs isn’t a fan of advanced metrics because if he were, he would realize his drop in volume doesn’t mean there weren’t positives to come from the 2019 season. Despite three fewer targets per game, he still set a career-high in receiving yards with 1,130 yards last year. Though his 94 targets checked in as just the 34th most among wide receivers, his 1,424 in air yards was good for 17th, and his 0.41 market share in air yards was second-highest among all wide receivers. If he doesn’t end up forcing his way out of Minnesota, he could be primed for a WR1 2020 season. If he is moved, a couple of free agent WRs, namely Robby Anderson and Breshad Perriman, could slide into his role and provide excellent production for both redraft and dynasty rosters.

Adam Thielen could present an attractive buy-low target. In his most recent “Dynasty Trade Value Chart,” Mike Tagliere pegs Thielen’s value as a late first-rounder, though you could likely pay less during rookie fever season. Thielen dealt with both in a lower volume passing attack and multiple injuries in 2019 and averaged 4.8 targets per game. It shouldn’t have been much of a shock to see his production decrease from the 2018 season when he averaged 9.5 targets per game.

Tied to what should be a more prolific passing attack in 2020, healthy, and possibly without Diggs on the roster, Thielen should come closer to his 2018 production when he saw 153 targets and finished as the WR17 averaging 19.2 points per game, than what he produced during the 2019 season.

Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. are players heading into opposite directions. Since his breakout 2016 season, Rudolph has seen his role on the Vikings’ offense greatly diminish. During that 2016 season, he was targeted a team-high 132 times but saw just 48 targets in 2019 (just one more target than Smith Jr.). Rudolph’s 77.9% snap share during the 2019 season was the lowest since his rookie year in 2011. Before redoing Cousins’ contract, the Vikings only had a little over $11m in cap space available, and Rudolph was a player in danger of being released. Per Spotrac, Minnesota could save $8m in cap space if they release Rudolph with a post 6/1 designation, so it’s still possible that he ends up being released. It’s clear that Rudolph’s days in Minnesota are numbered.

Smith Jr. didn’t break out in his rookie season, but he provided enough evidence to believe he’s the future of the tight end position in Minnesota. He saw one fewer target (47) than Rudolph last year, and either tied or out-targeted Rudolph in targets in seven of 16 games. Part of the reason that Rudolph saw his lowest snap share nine seasons was due to Smith Jr.’s presence. His 4.9 fantasy points per week probably didn’t win you many weeks, but if Rudolph is let go before the season, Smith Jr. will have the opportunity to move into the low TE1 range.

Running Back

One player whose value shouldn’t be affected by Cousins’ contract is Dalvin Cook. At least not in 2020. Cook’s production and value is mostly tied to his health. Cook finished the 2019 season as the RB2 averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game and did so without being an outlier in any specific area. His 4.5 targets per game matched his 2018 averages, while his 4.5 yards per rushing attempt checked in a tick below the previous two seasons averages. Cook did score 13 touchdowns, but that number isn’t so high that it should be expected to crater. The Vikings as a team, finished 13th in touchdowns scored in 2019, so there might even be room for growth in the touchdown scoring department for Cook.

If you’re in a win-now mode then Cook is a player, you should be confident riding through the 2020 season. Where his situation gets sticky is that his rookie contract expires after this coming season, when he’ll enter free agency at his age 26 season (the RB age cliff!!!). If your team isn’t a contender, now would be a great time to cash out on Cook before his value begins to slip.

Thank you for reading! How do you see Cousins new contract affecting the Vikings fantasy assets going forward?

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Shane Manila is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneIsTheWorst.

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