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Fantasy Impact: Teddy Bridgewater Signed by Panthers

Fantasy Impact: Teddy Bridgewater Signed by Panthers

The Cam Newton Era is over in Carolina. The Panthers are finalizing a three-year, $60 million deal with Teddy Bridgewater, and they have given Newton permission to seek a trade.

Bridgewater has finally fought his way back into a starting role after a scary knee injury in August 2016. Perseverance, thy name is Teddy. But what does this mean for fantasy lineups entering 2020? Let’s break it down.

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2019: A SEASON TO FORGET FOR CAROLINA

Things did not go well for the Panthers in 2019. The team finished 5-11 and fired head coach Ron Rivera midway through the season, replacing him with Perry Fewell in Week 14. Their defense was repeatedly torched by opposing rushers, and none of their quarterbacks, not Newton, not Kyle Allen, and not Will Grier, looked like the future.

There were some silver linings, however. Despite poor quarterback play, D.J. Moore finished as the WR13 in half-PPR formats, and Christian McCaffrey put up a dominant finish as the overall RB1 in every format. Both players were consistently featured in the passing game, too.

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?

The Bridgewater signing won’t fix all of Carolina’s problems, and Bridgewater isn’t suddenly in the fantasy QB1 conversation. The 27-year-old is more of a game manager than a game-breaker, so he’ll depend on his teammates to make plays. Fortunately, he’s got some good ones.

The more significant change for Carolina comes at head coach, and that’s worth just as much discussion. The Panthers will turn to Matt Rhule at head coach in 2020. Bridgewater seems like a good match for his aggressive, physical style, as Rhule seems prepared to emphasize the running game. And with Christian McCaffrey in the backfield, he’s got good reason to do so.

The Running Backs
McCaffrey is a big winner through Carolina’s offseason so far. The franchise has committed to their star running back with their choices at quarterback and head coach, and I’d expect them to add some depth at offensive line and running back as 2020 approaches.

Bridgewater has worked well with running backs in the past. He played the bulk of six games for the Saints in 2019, and he targeted Alvin Kamara 31 times through that stretch. Kamara missed one of those games with an injury, too, so that comes out to 6.2 targets per game.

McCaffrey should be the first overall fantasy pick in 2020, and the Bridgewater signing hasn’t affected that. It has, however, increased the value of whoever backs up McCaffrey, as his limitations as a passer will force the Panthers to rely on the running game no matter what.

The Wide Receivers
This position is a bit more complicated. On the one hand, Bridgewater is an upgrade over Kyle Allen, Will Grier, and an injured Newton. On the other hand, the Panthers should emphasize the running game under Bridgewater and Rhule, so they may not pass as much.

Another concern is Bridgewater’s lack of arm power.

That’s not bad news if you excel in catching dump-offs, like Christian McCaffrey. But it is concerning for both D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, who both excel at the deep ball. Moore’s WR13 finish last year was, in part, driven by air yards, which are the total distance a pass travels to the receiver. He put up the 12th-most air yards of any receiver, giving him an average depth of target (aDOT) of 11.1 — five yards deeper than Teddy’s average passes.

Bridgewater’s arm is even worse news for Curtis Samuel. Samuel actually out-performed Moore in terms of air yards, finishing ninth overall with an aDOT of 15.3. Among top-50 receivers, only Mike Williams and Breshad Perriman had a higher aDOT, while Mike Evans also finished with 15.3.

So while better quarterback play may lead the Panthers to a better season in 2020, it’s no sure thing that their leading receivers end up with better fantasy finishes.

The Tight Ends
Well, I guess it’s just Ian Thomas now. The Panthers sent Greg Olsen to Seattle earlier in the offseason, so the 23-year-old Thomas should have the job on lock for now. The Panthers could always add one in the draft, but I expect them to fill other needs instead.

I suppose this is good news for Thomas. Bridgewater’s last full season came in 2015 with Minnesota, and tight end Kyle Rudolph finished that year with 495 yards and five scores, good for TE13. That’s not quite a TE1 season, but it shows that Bridgewater can produce a streamable option at the position. He also showed good chemistry with Jared Cook this year, targeting him 24 times across five starts — good for a TE14 performance across that span.

Thomas isn’t suddenly a TE1, but he has more appeal as a streaming option now that Bridgewater is in town.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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