Stolen bases are an important statistical category in fantasy baseball. However, while most fantasy owners know the players who are most likely to hit for average or the players who will fight for the lead league in home runs, steals are not always given the same analysis or attention.
There is an art to picking up stolen bases. The runner must get out to a decent-sized lead, have a good read on the pitcher, and obviously be fast enough to beat the throw.
However, before a runner can even think about swiping a bag, he must have a manager who is willing to send him or allow him to run on his own. In this article, we will look at how MLB teams approached stolen bases in 2019 and use that data to find some players to target for the steals category in 2020.
In 2019, MLB teams averaged 104 stolen base attempts over the course of the season and teams succeeded on 73% of attempted steals. In general, teams who succeeded at a rate much higher than 73% can be expected to see regression, while teams who were caught stealing more than 27% of the time could expect to have more success in 2020.
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MLB Teams Stolen Base Attempts and Success Rates in 2019
| Team | SB Attempts | SB Success | Success Compared to MLB Average |
| Rangers | 169 | 78% | 4% |
| Mariners | 162 | 71% | -2% |
| Royals | 156 | 75% | 2% |
| Cardinals | 145 | 80% | 7% |
| Nationals | 145 | 80% | 7% |
| Indians | 138 | 75% | 1% |
| Rays | 131 | 72% | -2% |
| Brewers | 126 | 80% | 7% |
| Reds | 118 | 68% | -5% |
| Braves | 117 | 76% | 3% |
| Orioles | 114 | 74% | 0% |
| Padres | 107 | 65% | -8% |
| Diamondbacks | 102 | 86% | 13% |
| Rockies | 102 | 70% | -4% |
| Red Sox | 98 | 69% | -4% |
| Phillies | 96 | 81% | 8% |
| Astros | 94 | 71% | -2% |
| Pirates | 93 | 69% | -4% |
| White Sox | 91 | 69% | -4% |
| Angels | 85 | 76% | 3% |
| Marlins | 85 | 65% | -9% |
| Mets | 83 | 67% | -6% |
| Tigers | 77 | 74% | 1% |
| Yankees | 77 | 71% | -2% |
| Giants | 75 | 63% | -11% |
| Blue Jays | 71 | 72% | -1% |
| Athletics | 70 | 70% | -3% |
| Cubs | 69 | 65% | -8% |
| Dodgers | 67 | 85% | 12% |
| Twins | 49 | 57% | -16% |
The top teams in the league for stolen base attempts were the Rangers, Mariners, Royals, Cardinals, and Nationals. All of these teams had far more than the league average of 104 steal attempts. In addition, only the Royals have a new manager in 2020, which means we can reasonably expect the other four teams to remain aggressive on the basepaths.
The Diamondbacks and Dodgers, respectively, had stolen base success rates of 13% and 12% greater than the MLB average. Both teams were in the bottom half of the league in stolen base attempts and they should be expected to be caught stealing at a higher rate in 2020. This does not mean that you should avoid Dodgers or Diamondbacks batters, but you will likely need to find steals production elsewhere.
Notable Manager Changes
Joe Maddon has become the manager of the Angels after being with the Cubs for the last five seasons. In 2019, the Cubs attempted the third-fewest stolen bases in the big leagues. Halo runners could see a decrease in stolen base attempts in 2020.
On the other hand, the Cubs and Giants were in the bottom third of the MLB in stolen base attempts, but both teams welcome new managers for 2020. The new manager tendencies are unknown, but batters on these teams should not be downgraded based on their 2019 steal attempt totals.
While these team trends are good to keep in mind, there will be exceptions on the batter level. Slower players on teams who are aggressive on the basepaths will not immediately see an increase in stolen base production. Likewise, players who reach base and possess speed may be asked to run even if their manager is generally more timid with sending runners.
Batters to Target for Stolen Base Production
Adalberto Mondesi (SS – KC)
He plays for the steal-happy Royals, and while he has a new manager, his 43 stolen bases in just 102 games mean he will get plenty of opportunities in 2020.
Elvis Andrus (SS – TEX)
His team led the MLB in stolen base attempts in 2019. Andrus had 31 steals in 39 attempts last season. The veteran shortstop will play on most days and he offers fantasy owners some cheap production in the stolen base category.
Kolten Wong (2B – STL)
The Cardinals were in the top five in stolen base attempts in 2019 and Wong swiped 24 bags himself. He should be the everyday shortstop for St. Louis, giving him many chances to reach base and be asked to steal.
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Shane Bryant is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Shane, follow him on Twitter @ShaneBryant31.
