Skip to main content

Similar 2020 Fantasy Baseball Players with ADP Gaps

Similar 2020 Fantasy Baseball Players with ADP Gaps

Besides being able to have fun every moment of my workday, the best part about being full-time in the fantasy sports industry is the opportunity to talk to brilliant minds around the business. One name was especially exciting for me because I grew up reading Ron Shandler’s work as a kid and it is part of what helped me fall in love with fantasy baseball. Even beyond having fun talking to these men and women, I often learn a great deal. Ron turned me onto the notion that you can easily find value by searching for similar players who just so happen to have sizeable gaps in the average draft position. Today, I’ll give seven duos who are very similar in terms of production but one offers a major ADP value.

Mock in minutes (free) with our fantasy baseball draft software partner-arrow

Avisail Garcia (OF – MIL, ADP #244): 20/10 HR/SB, 72/61 RBI/R, .282 BA
vs.
Andrew Benintendi (OF – BOS, ADP #108): 13/10 HR/SB, 68/72 RBI/R, .266 BA

Whoa! This one is shocking, right? Garcia is being drafted 12 rounds later but was clearly the better player last year. Heck, Garcia even missed 40 games and is now moving from a pitcher’s park in Tampa to a hitter-friendly home environment in Milwaukee. In fact, if you go back over the full three years that Benintendi has been in the lineup, Garcia’s .288 BA, 27/9/93/84 per 162 pace also matches Benintendi’s .276 BA with 19/19/97/91 per 162 pace. The fact of the matter is that Benintendi’s prospect value has had him overhyped for years while Garcia continues to fly under the radar despite consistent high-performance.

Eduardo Escobar (3B – ARI, ADP #110): 35/5 HR/SB, 118/94 RBI/R, .269 BA
vs.
Kris Bryant (3B – CHC, ADP #47): 31/4 HR/SB, 77/108 RBI/R, .280 BA

Cubs fans, you might want to look away. It’s about to get ugly for you. You see, your three best players, Bryant, Rizzo and Baez were actually worse last year than Escobar, Mancini and Semien. Meanwhile, their ADPs are 53, 52 and 44 spots higher. Yikes. In Bryant’s case, he is a much better real-life player, as his best tool is his eye. That only adds a small boost from a runs scored standpoint. Not only did Escobar finish as the #5 fantasy third basemen last year (ahead of Eugenio Suarez, Josh Donaldson and Bryant) but in 2018, he was better than Bryant too. Yes, it’s true, Bryant has an MVP to his name, a world series title and was once a can’t miss prospect, but it may be true that Escobar is the more useful fantasy player and you can grab him five rounds later.

Trey Mancini (1B/OF – BAL, ADP #106): 35/1 HR/SB, 97/106 RBI/R, .291 BA
vs.
Anthony Rizzo (1B – CHC, ADP #54): 27/5 HR/SB, 94/89 RBI/R, .293 BA

You won’t find a soul, even an Orioles fan, who would tell you Mancini is the better real-life player. After all, Mancini is a terrible defender, has his stats propped up by a great home ballpark and Rizzo has one of the best batting eyes in the game. But Rizzo was clearly the lesser fantasy asset last year and didn’t even have a down season. In 2018, he hit just 25 homers with a .283 BA and 74 runs. In 2017, he was up at 32 homers, but batted just .273. Perhaps this is just who Rizzo is at this point in his career. I’m not suggesting that I’d draft Mancini over Rizzo, but the fact that Rizzo wasn’t a top 12 fantasy first basemen last year should concern you about grabbing him at his fifth round ADP.

Marcus Semien (SS – OAK, ADP #80): 33/10 HR/SB, 92/123 RBI/R, .285 BA
vs.
Javier Baez (SS – CHC, ADP #36): 29/11 HR/SB, 85/89 RBI/R, .281 BA

Ok, unlike the other Cubs, this one has less to do with the higher drafted player being overhyped in fantasy circles and much to do with Semien, one of the best players in Major League Baseball last year (no, really) still flying under the radar. It isn’t just Baez that Semien beat out in fantasy last year. He also topped Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts and Alex Bregman. I’m not kidding. You might think it was a fluke, but the batted ball data has Semien with a .362 xWOBA compared to Baez’ .334 mark. The xBA was higher too and a lot of it had to do with the fact that Semien nearly sliced his K% in half while his hard hit% and average exit velocity soared. This is an easy value in the 7th or 8th round.

Juan Soto (OF – WAS, ADP #10): 34/12 HR/SB, 110/110 RBI/R, .282 BA
vs.
Mookie Betts (OF – LAD, ADP #5): 29/16 HR/SB, 80/135 RBI/R, .297 BA

From what I’ve seen, everyone seems to agree that you’ve got the top three in whatever order (Acuna, Trout, Yelich) then Bellinger/Betts at #4/#5 in drafts. Sometimes Gerrit Cole will sneak his way in, but did you realize that the 20-year-old, Soto, was just as good from a fantasy perspective as Betts last year? It may be worth considering just how much better Soto is going to get as a 21-year-old this year? Could he win the NL-MVP over Yelich and Bellinger? Yeah, it’s a possibility. Then let’s look at Betts. He had a great year in 2018, but it’s sandwiched by two strong but unspectacular offensive stat-lines in 2017 and 2019. Perhaps 2018 was the outlier. And after swiping just 16 bags last year, fantasy owners can’t expect many more steals than Soto. Round it all off with a sizeable ballpark downgrade and I’m comfortable taking Soto at #5 overall ahead of Mookie.

Starlin Castro (2B – WAS, ADP #241): 22/2 HR/SB, 86/68 RBI/R, .270 BA
vs.
Jose Altuve (2B – HOU, ADP #30): 31/6 HR/SB, 74/86 RBI/R, .298 BA

“Oh, no. Now you’ve just gone way too far, Bobby”. Look, I’m not saying Castro is better than, as good or even close to as good as former MVP, Altuve. What I’m saying is, the stats weren’t too much different last year despite Castro playing in the worst ballpark for righties and Altuve….well, you know, wearing buzzers. Castro jumps into a much better ballpark and into a much better lineup this season. Altuve, meanwhile, just doesn’t steal bases anymore. Sure, maybe he jumps from 6 to 16 now, but are we really going to pay a third round value for a 30-year old with 97 homers in the prior 1,119 games? I’m not, and I’ll tell you exactly what I’m going to do. I’m going to buy 80% of Altuve in the 20th round, thank you very much.

**Bonus Prospect Comp**
Luis Robert (OF – CWS, ADP #96): 32/36 HR/SB, 92/108 RBI/R, .328 BA, 129 K

vs.
Fernando Tatis (SS – SD, ADP #19): 22/32 HR/SB, 75/84 R, .278 BA, 141 K

I had to cheat here a little bit, because as you know, Robert hasn’t played a single game at the big league level. What I did, was took his full-season minor league numbers from last year and compared them to Tatis’ most recent minor league season. They were both consensus top-five prospects with strikeout and batting average concerns but plenty of power and speed. Tatis managed to bat over .300 last year thanks to a league-high and entirely unsustainable BABIP. Likewise, his HR/FB ratio was also unrepeatable. He is due for a major dip in batting average and might not hit 20 homers this season even if he is healthy to start the year. Then there is Robert,  who is definitely healthy, has more power, batter batted ball skills, higher exit velocities, a better hard-hit percentage, just as much speed, plays in a better lineup and a better home park for hitters. Oh, and he’s going in the 8th or 9th round instead of the middle of the 2nd.

Mock in minutes (free) with our fantasy baseball draft software partner-arrow


SubscribeApple Podcasts | Google Play | SoundCloud | Stitcher | TuneIn

More Articles

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 5 min read
Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 10 min read
MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Thursday (3/28)

MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Thursday (3/28)

fp-headshot by Josh Shepardson | 1 min read
Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Jordan Romano, Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Jordan Romano, Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald (2024)

fp-headshot by Austin Lowell | 4 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

4 min read

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Next Up - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Next Article