Spring training performances rarely matter. Oh sure, every once in a while there’s a Ryan Howard swatting 10 home runs type of spring that portends incredible results for the season. But for every one of those, there are 50 Jung Ho Kang 2019 springs, where fantasy owners fool themselves into thinking that they’ve stumbled upon a potentially dominant player they’ve snuck through in the late rounds because of a few hot weeks.
Nevertheless, for various reasons, players’ stocks do and should rise and fall throughout spring training. Whether it be from injuries, a change in approach, or the addition of a new pitch, a player’s pre-draft ranking will occasionally move significantly based on spring developments. And this year is no exception. Here are some notable risers and fallers from the spring so far.
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Risers
Noah Syndergaard (SP – NYM)
Few pitchers have been as frustrating for fantasy owners as Syndergaard. Armed with elite velocity and one of the best sliders in the game, Syndergaard’s results have simply never matched what his pure stuff suggests they should be. Last year’s 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, along with a strikeout rate of barely one per inning, simply isn’t going to get it done.
Syndergaard’s issues are somewhat about his approach. He has been criticized for failing to attack hitters or work consistently, and he often nibbles around the corners.
But there were warning signs with his arsenal in 2019. His slider velocity dropped nearly three miles per hour, which led to a significant increase in slugging percentage against the pitch (.235 in 2018, .353 in 2019). The whiff rate on his slider also dropped 6.5 percentage points (46.1% in 2018, 39.6% in 2019), and his overall swinging strike rate dropped to 12.5%, a career-low.
But the early returns in the spring are good for Syndergaard. Although his slider velocity is actually down from last year, the development is purportedly intentional, a result of Syndergaard working with new pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. The slower velocity is intended not only to create a bigger differential between his slider and fastball/sinker, but also to give the slider more movement.
Syndergaard has gotten a ton of swing and misses on his slider so far this spring, and reports are that the pitch has far more downward break than in the past. At the very least, it appears that the notoriously stubborn Syndergaard recognized that he needed to make changes in the offseason, and he worked hard to do so.
The early positive returns shouldn’t be enough to thrust Syndergaard massively up draft boards. But it should give fantasy owners more optimism about drafting him.
Dylan Bundy (SP – LAA)
Perhaps no pitcher needed a change of scenery more than Bundy. Pitching in a hitter’s haven in a division with consistently strong offenses, Bundy barely had a chance.
Now with the Angels, however, Bundy gets a fresh start, and the results could be extremely impressive. Despite a career 4.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, Bundy has one of the best sliders in the game, with batters hitting just .152 against it last year with a 47.9%(!!!) whiff rate. His curveball, changeup, and sinker aren’t half bad either.
What is bad, however, is his fastball, and the guy just throws the pitch non-stop. He relied on it 47.8% of the time in 2018 (batters hit .303 against it with a .576 slugging percentage) and 42.4% of the time in 2019 (batters hit .335 against it with a .645 slugging percentage). It doesn’t help when his fastball velocity is a sub-par 91 miles per hour.
But Bundy’s fastball actually has an elite spin rate, ranking 11th-best among starting pitchers (just behind Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, etc.). High-spin fastballs generally induce swings and misses when thrown up in the zone, an area Bundy has rarely attacked with the pitch but is now committed to doing.
The results so far this spring? Gold, Jerry. Gold. We’re talking 11 strikeouts through 7 1/3 scoreless innings pitched.
Is Bundy suddenly going to turn into a top-20 starter? No, probably not. But should he be drafted with a late-round pick everywhere? Definitely.
Kenley Jansen (RP – LAD)
This one is pretty simple. Jansen had an extremely poor season (by his standards) last year, continued to see a downward trend in velocity and a lack of movement with his cutter, and was no longer trusted by his manager to close games in the postseason.
But Jansen, to his credit, did something about his decline. Jansen, (along with Clayton Kershaw and fellow spring riser Alex Wood) spent time this winter at Driveline Baseball, a baseball think tank that has revived the careers of several pitchers. And if the early returns are indicative of what Jansen’s season is going to look like, fantasy owners should be jumping at the chance to draft the veteran closer.
Jansen’s velocity on his cutter in the spring has been anywhere from 92 to 94 mph so far. And although his cutter averaged a tick under 92 mph last year, starting at that point (and higher) in the spring is a major development, as pitchers generally gain velocity as they move into the season.
Fantasy owners (and experts) weren’t jumping off the Jansen bandwagon anyway. He’s the sixth relief pitcher in both the expert consensus rankings and consensus average draft position (once you remove starting pitchers eligible at relief pitcher). But if he really has his velocity back, he could easily be the top reliever in fantasy.
Alex Wood (SP – LAD)
As mentioned, Wood also went to Driveline Baseball and, like Jansen, he has seen an early rise in velocity this spring. In 2016-2017, Wood averaged just under 92 miles per hour with his fastball. He struck out 217 batters in 212 2/3 innings over that span.
Over the last two seasons, Wood has averaged just 89.9 miles per hour with his fastball. He has struck out only 165 batters in 187 1/3 innings.
But so far this spring, Wood’s fastball has consistently been between 92 and 93 miles per hour. And again, a pitcher often takes time to build to his peak velocity, so Wood’s early numbers are extremely impressive.
Wood’s results thus far haven’t been eye-opening. He’s allowed three runs in just 2 1/3 innings pitched. But with a purportedly guaranteed rotation spot, ignore these types of numbers. If Wood can hold the velocity gains, he’ll be a prime sleeper on draft day.
Dylan Carlson (OF – STL)
Carlson is the lone non-pitcher who is a notable spring riser thus far, though if you want to talk about Chris Davis or Miguel Cabrera, I’d be willing to listen. With a 1.170 OPS and a 4/5 K/BB ratio, the former first-round pick has been opening some eyes in the spring.
Carlson is just 21 years old, but John Mozeliak has spoken glowingly of the young outfielder. And it would be hard not to, not only because of his impressive spring, but also because of his outstanding minor-league season last year. during which he hit 26 home runs and stole 20 bases in 126 games between Double-A and Triple-A.
The Cardinals have depth, but they made no effort to replace the departed Marcell Ozuna, and they even dealt Jose Martinez to the Rays. With outfield options such as Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill, and Lane Thomas, Carlson can absolutely force his way onto the Cardinals’ roster and into a starting spot in the outfield with a big spring.
Carlson is not being drafted in any casual league, but in deeper expert leagues, he’s being scooped up. If he continues his hot spring, he could be a difference-maker in fantasy, particularly with his speed.
Nate Pearson (SP – TOR)
Every once in awhile, that prospect who wasn’t on fantasy owners’ radars at all at the start of spring gains immediate traction based on his early showings. And that’s what we have with Pearson.
Pearson has dominated the spring, easily hitting triple digits with his fastball and making hitters look silly. Based on his spring, his pedigree, and his minor-league career, it seems obvious that Pearson would be one of the Blue Jays’ best options for their rotation.
The thing is, although the Blue Jays should be more competitive this year, they seem unlikely to challenge the Yankees for a division title, and that’s with or without Pearson in the rotation. Also, their plan has been to bring Pearson along slowly, considering that he hasn’t topped 102 innings yet in the minors due to injuries and that he has made only three starts in Triple-A.
But we’ve seen plans go out the window before, most notably last year with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack, and fantasy owners can still remember when Jose Fernandez essentially forced the Marlins to bring him to the majors immediately.
Even if Pearson doesn’t begin the season in the Blue Jays’ rotation, it’s a strong bet that he’ll make it there at some point this year. And given his pure stuff, fantasy owners would be wise to stash him late in their drafts.
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Fallers
Chris Sale (SP – BOS)
There were plenty of concerns over Sale’s 2020 outlook based on his performance and injury last season, but he was still regarded as the type of pitcher who could front a fantasy staff before the spring started. A bout of pneumonia set him back just a bit, but still, fantasy owners weren’t (and shouldn’t have been) overly concerned.
But now, a flexor strain in his elbow not only puts Sale’s immediate fantasy value in doubt, but it also calls into question his entire season and long-term future. Sale will be shut down for a week and then try to throw. His best-case scenario is that he misses a few weeks or a month of the regular season.
His worst-case scenario, however, is Tommy John surgery, as he himself admitted on Thursday. And, at this point, it feels like surgery is the most likely outcome based on Sale’s tenor.
In re-draft leagues, until we hear more, fantasy owners should continue to draft Sale, but at a point closer to the 50th starter taken, rather than in the top 10.
Blake Snell (SP – TB)
After an inconsistent 2019 season, Snell had surgery on his pitching elbow to remove loose bodies. Coming into 2020 purportedly healthy, Snell looked ready to jump right back into being a potential ace of a fantasy staff.
And then, suddenly, he wasn’t. Snell had inflammation in his left elbow and received a cortisone injection. And although this does not appear to be related to Snell’s UCL, it’s obviously a negative development.
Snell insists he feels good and will pitch this week, but come on. You can’t have elbow surgery after a sub-par season and then immediately receive a cortisone injection in that same elbow the following spring. At least, you can’t do that if you want to inspire any sort of confidence in fantasy owners.
Snell may be completely fine, to be clear. His elbow may be totally healthy going forward, and he may pitch roughly a full season. But given that he’s already behind schedule, and that he had elbow surgery last year, it would be prudent for fantasy owners to drop Snell down their draft boards slightly for now.
Aaron Judge (OF – NYY) and Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY)
Judge and Stanton land in very different tiers in the “spring fallers” section, but we’ll lump them in together because, you know, Yankees outfielders.
After shedding his injury-prone label with two fully healthy seasons in 2017-2018, Stanton was limited to just 18 games in 2019 due to bicep and knee injuries. And just when fantasy owners were ready to trust him enough to make him one of the cornerstones of their teams, he suffered a Grade-1 calf strain right at the start of the spring.
Stanton is not going to be ready for Opening Day, and the only timeline fantasy owners have is that he is expected to play “at some point in April.” Bear in mind, a Grade-1 calf strain is the least severe type of strain, and players who suffer the injury are often able to avoid the injured list altogether — or miss just a couple weeks at worst. And yet Stanton, who suffered the injury in February, is expected to play “at some point” two-and-a-half months later.
Injury-prone or not, that is an extremely troubling sign for his 2020 season. His slower than typical recovery from a minor injury, which will at least somewhat delay his debut, is all the more reason to avoid the slugger unless his draft price slips significantly.
As for Judge, he’s a spring faller, for sure, but just how far he should fall is only an educated guess. Judge has a vague shoulder/chest ailment and has undergone multiple MRIs, but there are zero firm reports on either the nature of his injury or how much time (if any) he will miss.
Although Judge and Brian Cashman still hold out hope for Opening Day, that’s looking highly unlikely at the moment. Instead, the likely best-case scenario for Judge is a bit of rest and rehab, which almost certainly means he won’t be ready before April.
As with Snell, Judge’s injury may be much ado about nothing. But without any firm diagnosis or timetable, fantasy owners need to be careful and drop Judge down into the fourth-round range.
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Dan Harris is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.
