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ThriveFantasy NBA Best Bets for March 4th, 2020

by Raju Byfield | @FantasyContext | Featured Writer
Mar 4, 2020

Caris LeVert has been scoring almost at will lately

ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.

Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two correct selections pay a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pay a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks pay an 11 times multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount. 

The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NBA involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.

Fantasy sport players, especially DFS players, have an edge when it comes to player prop betting. DFS players set lineups taking into account potential production when weighing competing options against each other. This is most pronounced with the NBA and the NFL DFS players. As such, diving into prop based DFS contests is a smart way to further monetize your knowledge. While the Contest Lobby requires you to select 10 different props, you can still make a return even if you do not get every over/under prediction right. 

To identify whether to select the over or the under we will take a look at some recent trends and key stats. We will also take any injuries, and narratives into account. Finally, we will use lines at sportsbooks to identify whether the lines hold any immediate value. Let’s dig in.

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Caris LeVert 25.5 points + rebounds (o 105/u 95)

  • Averaging 21 points + rebounds on the season
  • Averaging 19.7 points + rebounds at home
  • Averaging 29.9 points + rebounds since the all-star break
  • Averaged 25.2 points + rebounds in February
  • Recorded 21 points and seven rebounds against the Grizzlies earlier this season
  • Over in two of last four contests
  • Over in seven of last 12 contests

Caris LeVert is a man on fire. Despite being injured and playing with a wrapped hand, LeVert exploded for 51 points last night. According to ESPN stats and info, his 37 points in the 4th quarter and overtime was the most by any player in the last 20 seasons. He started the season slow which affected his averages, but has been reliable whenever Kyrie Irving has been sidelined. Most of the key stats suggest that the under is the play, but DFS players may be hard-pressed to fade LeVert after his terrific performance last night. LeVert has gone over 25.5 points + rebounds in two of his last four contests, and in seven of his last 12. The juice is actually on the under at the sportsbooks, which is surprising against a team LeVert scored 27 points, and hauled in seven rebounds against earlier this season. Memphis boasts the ninth-worst scoring defense in the league, and allows opponents to shoot .491 from the floor. LeVert over appears to be one of the top plays on the board for tonight’s contest at ThriveFantasy.

Pick: Caris LeVert over 25.5 points + rebounds (105 points)

Donovan Mitchell over 23.5 points (o 100/u 100)

  • Averaging 24.7 points per game on the season
  • Averaging 24.1 points per game on the road
  • Averaging 27.8 points per game since the all star break
  • Averaged 25.5 points per game in February 
  • Recorded 16 points in only game against new York this season
  • Over in four of last five contests 

Donovan Mitchell has been on a mini tear recently. Averaging 24.7 points per game on the season, he has bumped his average up to 27.8 points per game in the six games since the all-star break. He has gone over 23.5 points in four of his last five contests, and appears to be a good bet to do so once again against a New York Knicks team that boasts the 12th worst scoring defense, and the ninth-worst percentage-based defense (.499). The juice is surprisingly on the under at the books, possibly due to the fact that Mitchell scored just 16 points against the Knicks in his only contest against them this season. Mitchell was right on the mark over the month of February, averaging 25.5 points per contest. The key stats and trends above suggest that this prop indeed deserved to be 100 points on either side at ThriveFantasy, but the lean here is the over. 

Pick: Donovan Mitchell over 23.5 points (100 points)

Sign Up on ThriveFantasy and Use Promo Code “BPROS” for a $5 FREE Credit!

Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.