ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.
Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two correct selections pays a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pays a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks pays a 11 times multiplier. In these contests you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount.
The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby offers prop contests for a variety of different sports and esports, including the PGA. The golf contests are a little different than the format for the NBA or the NFL. The main difference between PGA and NBA or NFL contests in the Contest Lobby, is that instead of selecting 10 of 20 props, you are tasked with making five predictions out of the 10 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.
This week we will take a look at three of our top plays for The Players Championship contest that begins on March 12th. The contest is for the first round only. With only five selections, the point totals take on added importance, as due to a limited amount of possible pick combinations, there are likely to be a number of similar or matching lineups from different entrants. With that being said, there are some strong bets that may be potentially chalky plays, that should make it into at least one of your entries. For a look at our other three best bets, click here. Let’s dig in.
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Tommy Fleetwood 69.5 strokes (o 110/u 90)
The number 10 ranked golfer on the planet, Tommy Fleetwood is on a bit of a roll. He has yet to taste his first victory States side, but his strong play in Europe suggests that is not a matter of if, but when he will finally pick up his first win.
Fleetwood has been excellent at The Players Championship Sawgrass, most notably finishing in the top five in 2019. He was almost as good in 2018 when he finished in the top seven. Finishing in the top five while going over par in the final speaks to how well Fleetwood was playing last year.
He shot a 65 in the first round, and followed that up with a still strong 67. He would go on to shoot 70 in the third round, before succumbing to pressure and posting a 73 in the fourth and final round. He was more consistent in 2018, but lacked the difference making 65 level round. In 2018 he shot 69, 71, 68, and 68 in his four rounds.
His overall average round from the last two events is 68.875. This prop is one of the best values on the board, as the return is 90 points for a prop that has a high enough win probability to be listed at 80 or 85 points. Fleetwood has made just three appearances at TPC Sawgrass, but has shown enough to be a strong under play.
Pick: Tommy Fleetwood over 68.5 strokes
Rickie Fowler 67.5 strokes (o 75/u 125)
Rickie Fowler has been more name than game lately, especially since his injury. He is currently ranked 27th in the world, and is a curious inclusion in ThriveFantasy’s contest. He has had some excellent play at The Players Championship, most notably winning the tournament in 2015. He was also the runner up in 2012. However, Fowler has missed the cut in five of his 10 Players appearances, most recently in 2018. Fowler has shot just one round under 68 strokes in his last six rounds at TPC Sawgrass. That round was the second of last year’s contest when he shot a 67. The recent trends suggest that the over is the only play here, as Fowler just has not shown enough recently to cover this particular number. Take the 75 points and the over at ThriveFantasy.
Pick: Rickie Fowler over 67.5 strokes (75 points)
Dustin Johnson 3.5 birdies (o 85/u 115)
The number five ranked golfer in the world, Dustin Johnson appears primed for another strong finish at The Players Championship Sawgrass. Johnson placed in the top five during 2019’s event, and has placed in the top 20 in each of the last three years. He has averaged a strong 69 per round in his last nine rounds at TPC Sawgrass.
The over/under total here was set very well at 3.5 birdies. Johnson averaged five birdies in his four 2019 rounds, and mustered a 4.75 average in 2018. Johnson had at least four birdies in last year’s event, and is a strong bet to have at least four in the opening round of 2020’s version of the event.
His proven track record and recent success at this court necessitates the over being the play if you wish to include Dustin Johnson in your entry. There is absolutely zero value in the under at just 115 points, as the low win probability does not provide the requisite return. Take the 85 points on the over, or fade this prop completely.
Pick: Dustin Johnson over 3.5 birdies (85 points)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.
