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Mock drafts are all about testing. We can’t always accurately gauge the results of a mock, but we can determine how we feel as certain events unfold. If we get sniped, do we make rash decisions? If a position run begins, do we chase?

In the case of this particular article, if we were to draft only hitters for the first five rounds, can we make a winning team?

I recently performed this experiment in the opposite direction, where I selected only pitchers for the first three rounds. There’s a catch with that setup. I generally try to draft pitchers as early as possible. It’s closer to my preferred method.

This is not. This is outside of my comfort zone.

Which is exactly why it is worth practicing it via a mock draft.

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Results

The lineup of this 12-team draft is C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 4 P, 5 BN, and was conducted using FantasyPros’ Draft Simulator.

1.6 Mookie Betts (OF – LAD)
With the exception of 2017, Mookie Betts has been a consistent fantasy baseball monster. The one ‘down year’ is probably what pushes him to the back of the top-five in terms of fantasy hitters for 2020, but the reality is that Betts is one of the rare players who produces in all categories. We even get a potential uptick in value as he enters his contract year where he will be seeking a massive payday in the offseason. Seeing as pitchers were off the table for me, Betts is an easy first-round pick.

Others Considered: Trea Turner

2.7 Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS – SD)
It’s only natural that, if I am intentionally stretching myself to a point where I am not comfortable, I would lean on some of my preferred players. Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of my preferred players. In fact, he is usually the reason why I would take a pitcher in the first round, as I am confident that I can gain from Tatis in the second. Like Betts, Tatis contributes across the board and is arguably getting better as he enters his first full season of Major League Baseball — or as close to a full season as we will get in 2020.

Others Considered: Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper

3.6 Yordan Alvarez (OF – HOU)
To this point, I have been relatively fortunate that most of the pitchers I normally target were drafted shortly before my pick. I’m still in a position where I am not tempted by the arms available — maybe Blake Snell — but I also need to fill a hole. As I have written for each of my first two picks, I already have a wide net of statistics covered. Power, however, is lagging behind. I’ve soured a little on Yordan Alvarez as the preseason has extended — perhaps its the lack of knowing when he will be healthy versus when the season will start — but I simply can’t turn away from the home runs. He will contribute power, and I need it.

Others Considered: Starling Marte, Jose Altuve

4.7 Anthony Rizzo (1B – CHC)
To my surprise, the FantasyPros Draft Simulator has not yet yelled at me for bypassing on pitchers, but I suspect that will happen in the near future. As it stands, I have to make a decision between two players I normally don’t draft but have to consider for this lineup. If this were an on-base percentage league, Anthony Rizzo would be the easy choice, but he likely would be gone by now. Ozzie Albies looks to have developed power and steals bases, but speed is the one area where I have an abundance — relative to the rest of the categories, anyway. I’ll be taking the more boring — on the surface — pick of Rizzo, but partly because I’m targeting a second baseman in the next round. I have found that, unless I nab Miguel Sano in the later rounds, I am not thrilled with my first base selections. It’s best for me to fill the hole before it grows.

Others Considered: Ozzie Albies

5.6 Keston Hiura (2B – MIL)
I’ve hit a milestone. I have now drafted Keston Hiura for the 385,250th time, this preseason. Too much exposure? Fear not. Some of those were mock drafts. Like this one. Where I alluded to taking a second baseman right after choosing Rizzo over Albies. Hiura is that second baseman. Had it gone south, I probably would have turned to fellow mainstay Yoan Moncada or Manny Machado. The important note here is that I have filled my requirements of drafting five hitters through five rounds and I will be turning to pitching for the foreseeable future.

Others Considered: Yoan Moncada, Manny Machado

6.7 Aroldis Chapman (RP – NYY)
As if sensing blood in the water, four consecutive robot drafters before me selected starting pitchers. As an added shot fired, they left me with Moncada. They must know how bullish I am on him. Once I finish weeping, I will turn to my most trusted strategy. That is, instead of simply grabbing the next-best starting pitcher, I am going to change course and take a closer in Aroldis Chapman. Best case scenario, others follow and I started a closer run. Worst case? They don’t, and I don’t exactly get value later. It’s a calculated risk because of my future plans at starting pitcher.

Others Considered: Yu Darvish, Kirby Yates

7.6 Jose Berrios (SP – MIN)
I’m caught somewhere in between the best and worst-case scenarios described in my last blurb. Kirby Yates went — right before me, too — but no other closers were taken between my two picks. I did not start the run, nor do I see particular value as a result of my move. Moncada is still staring me in the face and I am pained by looking away. Forgive me, Yoan. Thankfully, I will grab another player who lands on almost every team I draft. Jose Berrios consistently delivers one solid season after another and, while I don’t love him as the ace of my staff, he’s there by default because of my self-imposed restrictions.

Others Considered: Mike Soroka

8.7 Shohei Ohtani (SP – LAA)
I’ve written about this before, but Shohei Ohtani is a potential league-winner based on format. This presents a problem in a mock draft. If we are mock drafting for a daily points league in which he is dual-eligible, then he would be long gone by this point of the draft. If he were a hitter-only in a weekly league, then he’s probably a reach here. I’m splitting the difference and considering him mainly a starting pitcher where we have to declare his status before each week. Why? Because, if you’re following along at home, you can just swap out Ohtani for Kyle Hendricks or Zack Wheeler.

Others Considered: Kyle Hendricks, Zack Wheeler

9.6 Franmil Reyes (OF – CLE)
This is mildly disappointing. One of the assumed benefits of taking hitters early was that I would not have to carry any risk with them later and, instead, would shift said risk to my high-upside starting pitching targets. It hasn’t happened. I’ve found myself pushing pitchers up the priority list while also skipping some hitters because “I have enough.” Now, I’m in a position where Franmil Reyes is more important to my team than he should have been. I still love his upside and power, but I don’t love that I had to place him above pitchers that are clearly a need at this point. I am doing it for the sake of still taking chances later.

Others Considered: Kyle Hendricks, Zack Wheeler

10.7 Zack Wheeler (SP – CHC)
No more excuses or procrastination. I have been considering Zack Wheeler with each of the last two picks, but only now can I take the plunge. He’ll be my second full-time starting pitcher, and I am not happy about it, but that’s one of the reasons why I had to delay. In the interim, I filled other needs. Now, if Wheeler can deliver like the Philadelphia Phillies expect after giving him a big contract, I will have bought relatively low.

Others Considered: Willson Contreras

11.6 Zac Gallen (SP – ARI)
I keep alluding to having a bigger plan that I will utilize “at a later point.” It is officially “a later point.” For the time being, I plan to fill my roster with high-upside starting pitching, regardless of the player’s ADP or perceived value. This is not the time for discounts. It’s time to make up ground. I’ll start with the pitcher who has risen up the ADP charts in recent weeks and the one I have been targeting since the start of the preseason. I won’t blindly expect Zac Gallen’s numbers to perfectly extrapolate over a full season — if there were a full season — but he should strikeout an average of one batter per inning while also holding a respectable ERA. If he also approximates what we saw in a half-season, last year, then the price I paid for him was a bargain.

Others Considered: Willson Contreras, Eduardo Rodriguez

12.7 Matthew Boyd (SP – DET)
Quite frankly, I’m disappointed in myself for not having drafted Matthew Boyd more often. I constantly write about how much I love high-upside pitching and is there anyone with noticeably better upside than Boyd? He is now a strikeout machine expected to deliver a full workload. And that’s the floor projection. Imagine how much more valuable he becomes if he is traded to a team that could win games. It’s entirely plausible that the Detroit Tigers look to sell-high on Boyd, but, for his value to be in a “sell-high” position, he’ll need to deliver for Detroit as soon as possible. I’m buying now so that I could reap the same rewards that the Tigers will.

Others Considered: Hansel Robles, Craig Kimbrel

13.6 Julio Urias (SP – LAD)
This trend is intentional, and it’s making me feel a little better about my team. Julio Urias is the latest in a list of high-ceiling pitchers, and he is the perfect candidate to thrive in a short campaign. Granted, we still have no answers regarding the length of the upcoming season, but Urias is worth owning even if we get a full 162 games. He had been a highly-touted prospect in the past and finally delivered a sparkling 2.49 ERA with an excellent strikeout rate. I’ll take that in the 13th round.

Others Considered: Hansel Robles, German Marquez

14.7 Alex Colome (RP – CWS)
As evidenced by my “others considered” section for the past two picks, I was waiting on closers for as long as possible. I can wait no longer. I need the depth and, while I don’t love Alex Colome at all, I do expect the Chicago White Sox to be a much better team in 2020 than they were in 2019. He gets the first save opportunities.

Others Considered: Keone Kela

15.6 Keone Kela (RP – PIT)
If I were nervous about Colome, then I am terrified of Keone Kela. Alas, I’m going for quantity over quality, but I’ll even admit that I don’t see many saves for Kela. If he lasts the full season with the Pittsburgh Pirates and doesn’t get traded, then he’s the most likely player to save both of the team’s wins for 2020.

Others Considered: Will Smith

16.7 J.D. Davis (3B/OF – NYM)
I found myself surprised to select J.D. Davis. Seeing as I am the one clicking the mouse, it shouldn’t surprise me, but it did. Probably because this is the first time I felt compelled to add Davis and the surprisingly high floor he brings to the table. Playing time appears to always be a concern for him, but this is also the reason why he can be drafted in such a late-round. After ignoring hitters for six consecutive rounds, it’s time to lower my risk exposure with Davis. Believe it or not, that’s what he brings to the table.

Others Considered: Bryan Reynolds

17.6 Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT)
As much as I dislike the shifting in my plan, I almost accomplished each of my goals prior to this round. Here is where I lost it. Mitch Keller would have been the last piece of my puzzle, and he went right before I had the opportunity to take him. I won’t shed tears in this particular case because I knew how unlikely it was to land all of my sleepers on the same team — and, really, how dangerous that is — but it’s annoying. Regardless, I’ll shift to his teammate and the nice array of statistics to which he regularly contributes.

Others Considered: Lorenzo Cain, Joey Lucchesi

18.7 Joey Lucchesi (SP – SD)
I remain on the fence about whether we have seen the best that Joey Lucchesi will give us as a fantasy asset or if there is still potential for growth. The problem is that the San Diego Padres have so many capable arms, and any decline from Lucchesi can result in a demotion. The upside is that he delivered almost identical seasons in back-to-back years and is pitching for a team that could suddenly be competitive. He slides in as a low-risk but probably low-reward flier.

Others Considered: Dylan Bundy

19.6 Dylan Bundy (SP – LAA)
I’ve owned Dylan Bundy in too many drafts — mock and real — to be truly comfortable, but I stand by my conviction that the talent is present, but the win potential was not. Now it is. The small tweak of starting games for the Baltimore Orioles to the Los Angeles Angels is enough to raise Bundy’s value to the point that he remains on my radar in every league. Will I overpay? Of course not. But we should always take notice when a pitcher can routinely deliver 160 innings, as he has for three consecutive years.

Others Considered: Chris Archer, Miguel Andujar

20.7 Miguel Andujar (3B – NYY)
I probably don’t need another hitter at this point. but I wanted to strengthen my bench and had no particular pitching interests. Miguel Andujar may be an extreme liability in the field, but he can hit. The New York Yankees see the potential in his bat and will find a way to get him into the lineup regularly — think DJ LeMahieu, last year. If Andujar is, indeed, healthy — and with extended time, he should be — the returns on this low investment could be massive.

Others Considered: Chris Archer

21.6 Chris Archer (SP – PIT)
When I mentioned having “no particular pitching interest” with my last pick, Chris Archer was the one possible exception to the rule. Despite the decline in nearly every area, it’s hard to argue with the ace of a pitching staff who still carries a high strikeout rate. Maybe he’ll implode, but he’s my last pick before the obligatory catcher.

Others Considered: Mychal Givens

22.7 Kurt Suzuki (C – WSH)
Is it acceptable to write that Kurt Suzuki plays the position I need, so I drafted him? If not, I’ll give some analysis. Of the remaining pitiful options at catcher, Suzuki is likely to hurt my team the least in the batting average category. That mattered to me simply because I didn’t expect to gain from any other catcher’s production and I wanted to limit my losses.

Others Considered: Robinson Chirinos

Summary

I was legitimately surprised when I saw my final grade from the FantasyPros Draft Simulator, and it made me think twice before ripping the roster apart and declaring this experiment a “massive failure.” In fact, it showed me something else that I constantly preach but want to emphasize here.

It’s important to like your team.

I love writing about and discussing draft strategies — it’s easily my favorite fantasy baseball topic — and, beneath all of the metrics of risk-reward analysis, I will often turn to a one-word emotion that should ultimately drive the bulk of our decisions: fun.

It should be fun to draft your team. This is the most control you will have over your final roster. Enjoy the process.

It is, however, critical for me to admit my biases. I don’t want to take hitters early if I can get a top-notch pitcher, but, objectively, the system disagrees. It argues that not only can I make a good team from it, but I might end up with a better team than I assembled with my Early Pitchers Only attempt.

Still, recognizing my bias is only the first step. The second is to determine if there’s truth behind it. Possibly. I could be wrong. The projections could be right. Or maybe the level of comfort I feel with my preferred approach is directly correlated with how I foresee eventually achieving success. Since I expect a winning team to have certain key components, I want to take the path of least resistance to secure these components, even if said resistance is self-imposed.

Put another way, if the projected results will be relatively equal, I want the draft process that brought me more fun.

2020 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.