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12-Team PPR Mock Draft (2020 Fantasy Football)

12-Team PPR Mock Draft (2020 Fantasy Football)

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our Cheat Sheet Creator – which allows you to combine rankings from 100+ experts into one cheat sheet – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

With free agency in the books, player values have changed to account for all the player movement. While we still have the NFL draft in a couple of weeks, we’re finally starting to get a look at teams’ final rosters. You might think that doing a mock draft this at this point in the offseason, mock drafts provide one of the best ways to gauge player values in fantasy football. Thus, doing mock drafts now can help identify player value now that may be exploitable late in the draft prep process.

For this exercise, I used FantasyPros’ Draft Wizard, which you can also use to prepare for your drafts this offseason. Below are specifics on the league format that I used for the mock draft from the 4th spot:

  • 12 teams
  • Full point per reception, 4 points per passing touchdown scoring
  • 1 QB
  • 2 RB
  • 3 WR
  • 1 TE
  • 1 RB/WR/TE flex
  • 6 bench spots

What follows is the team that I ended up with, including some thoughts and analysis of each pick that I made.

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1.04 (4th overall): Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
First-round draft picks, especially in the top half, are usually easy decisions  – this one was no different. Ezekiel Elliott has been a model of consistency in his four years with the Dallas Cowboys, making him one of the most valuable assets in all of fantasy football. Elliott hasn’t had a game with fewer than 13 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) and has averaged over 25 opportunities per game in his four-year career. Though his reception total dipped a bit last year after setting a career-high in 2018, the Cowboys remain one of the best offensive units in the league. The Cowboys’ offensive efficiency helped Elliott greatly as he led the league in red zone rushing attempts with 59. Barring a catastrophic injury, he is primed for another stud season.

2.09 (21st overall): Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
Speaking of consistency, Travis Kelce has been the epitome of that at the tight end position – he has been the first overall tight end in fantasy football each of the past four years. We haven’t seen domination like that at a single position in quite some time, and there’s no reason to think that trend won’t continue in 2020. He’ll have the best quarterback throwing him the ball on one of the best offenses, yet again. I had the option of selecting Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler at this spot, but since I already had a stud running back in Elliott, I felt comfortable passing on the two of them for the elite tight end production.

3.04 (28th overall): D.J. Moore (WR – CAR)
I’m extremely high on D.J. Moore this year, making the first three rounds of this draft nearly perfect in my opinion after selecting him. Moore took a big leap in his second year last season, finishing in the top ten in fantasy points per game (excluding the one game he left early due to injury). With Teddy Bridgewater the starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, Moore has a chance to further improve. Bridgewater’s tendency to play conservatively is well documented, as evidenced by his 7.54 career average depth of target (aDOT). Because of this, Moore will be able to thrive as the team’s primary possession receiver. Furthermore, I believe that the Robby Anderson signing with the Panthers doesn’t impact Moore’s value as much as it does that of teammate Curtis Samuel’s – both Anderson and Samuel had an aDOT above 14.5 in 2019, while Moore’s was at 11.5 last year. Moore is ready to break out once again.

4.09 (45th overall): Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL)
Calvin Ridley is another one of those players, similar to Moore, that I’m a bit higher than consensus on. His late-fourth-round value is extremely appealing to me given the upside he has in an offense that is losing its second-most targeted player in Austin Hooper. Though he isn’t the type of possession receiver drafters typically target in PPR leagues, Ridley displayed his ceiling in his rookie season. His first year, he scored 10 receiving touchdowns and has the opportunity to hit that mark again in his third year with over 200 targets up for grabs in the Atlanta Falcons offense.

5.04 (52nd overall): Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
Knowing that I had three wide receiver spots to fill in my starting lineup as well as this being a PPR league, I felt compelled to take another receiver to fill out my starting group. At the time, Tyler Lockett was the best available receiver and is a great value this late in the draft. Though Lockett has dealt with injuries in the past, he managed to play in all 16 games last year. He is also one of Russell Wilson’s favorite targets, which allowed him to post career-high numbers in several categories last year. Many will point to the Seattle Seahawks’ proclivity for running the ball as a reason to avoid Seattle pass catchers. However, it’s likely that Seattle won’t be in as many positive game scripts next year. Using nflscrapR data, I discovered that Seattle faced a positive game script (leading by at least 9 points) on 13.7 percent of their offensive plays last year, the 14th highest rate in the league.

6.09 (69th overall): David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
As mediocre as David Montgomery’s rookie season was from a fantasy football perspective, he showed plenty of reasons why he can thrive as a fantasy football asset. From a workload perspective, he was trusted with a near-workhorse role. His 242 carries were tied for 13th last year and he was used at an extremely high rate when the Chicago Bears got close to the goal-line. The Bears gave him 14 carries inside the five-yard line, which accounted for 87.5 percent of the Bears’ such carries (the second-highest rate in the league). It’s apparent that Montgomery warrants the rushing workload as he forced 28 broken tackles, the sixth most among running backs. Unfortunately, his receiving ceiling is capped with the presence of Tarik Cohen, but I’ll take the high-level workload at this point in the draft, regardless of where it comes.

7.04 (76th overall): Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG)
At this point in the draft, I wanted a serviceable backup option at wide receiver that could fill in for bye weeks or in the event of an injury to a starter. Sterling Shepard made sense, for a number of reasons. Though he missed several games due to injury, Shepard played well in the ten games that he started – his 14.2 fantasy points per game were good enough to make him a WR2. Furthermore, he commanded a 23 percent target share – by far the highest on the team – when both he and Daniel Jones played. What’s more, is that he was able to convert those targets into receptions. His 5.7 receptions per game landed him among the top 12 wide receivers in that category. With the New York Giants likely to have one of the worst defenses yet again, they will be forced into passing the football, benefitting Shepard greatly.

8.09 (93rd overall): James White (RB – NE)
Tom Brady leaving the New England Patriots may very well have hurt James White’s value, but he has still been one of the best PPR running backs in the league as of late. In each of the past four seasons, White has averaged over five targets per game and 30 receiving yards per game. He’s also second among running backs in targets over the past two seasons (218) behind only Christian McCaffrey (266). Whoever is under center for the Patriots in 2020 would be well served to throw the ball to White as an outlet option. Per PFF, White had a 110.4 passer rating when targeted last year. He may not be a ceiling pick, but he’ll provide a great floor with continued use in the passing game.

9.04 (100th overall): Raheem Mostert (RB – SF)
Frankly, I’m a bit shocked that Raheem Mostert lasted this long. I understand the concern from drafters regarding the committee approach that the San Francisco 49ers typically employ. However, if the playoffs are any indication of how the 49ers backfield will play out in 2020, then Mostert has demonstrated that he is the RB1 in San Francisco. He recorded double-digit carries in each of the San Francisco 49ers’ final eight games of 2019 (including the playoffs). On the season as a whole, he was one of the most efficient running backs, averaging 6.3 yards per touch (per RotoUnderworld). He’ll definitely face competition as a 49ers running back, but if he can separate himself the way he did at the end of the year then this will prove to be an extremely valuable pick.

10.09 (117th overall): Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Diontae Johnson showed a ton of promise in his rookie season despite the entire Pittsburgh Steelers offense being terrible for most of the season. He ended up leading the Steelers in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns despite less-than-ideal quarterback play. Furthermore, per PFF, he forced 18 missed tackles after the catch, the third-most among all wide receivers and tight ends in 2019. Over the past couple of years, the Steelers have been able to support multiple wide receivers as valuable fantasy assets. Johnson could be that second guy this year, especially with Ben Roethlisberger back healthy.

11.04 (124th overall): Carson Wentz (QB – PHI)
While I considered taking Carson Wentz a round or two earlier, I’m happy I didn’t because waiting paid off (long-live the late-round quarterback strategy). He is a prototypical post-hype sleeper, having been drafted inside the top six quarterbacks just a year ago and now falling down draft boards due to under-performing last year (he finished as QB15 in fantasy points per game). A large contributor to Wentz’s lack of production was losing so many of his receiving options to injury throughout the year. Despite that, he threw for 27 touchdowns last year, the fifth most in the league. In any case, if I’m able to wait this long to get a quarterback with as high of a ceiling as Wentz on draft day then I’ll come away feeling great!

12.09 (141st overall): Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
I typically don’t advise drafting a running back handcuff knowing that their ceiling is capped without an injury to the lead running back. However, I wasn’t going to draft a backup quarterback or tight end so I was comfortable spending a pick on Elliott’s backup in Tony Pollard. In limited work last year, Pollard demonstrated that it might be worth giving him more touches, despite how much the Cowboys have invested in Elliott from a contract standpoint. Last year, Pollard got double-digit carries in four games, of which he eclipsed 100 rushing yards and scored twice. Overall, his 5.3 yards per carry average ranked third among running backs with at least 80 carries. Though I mentioned Elliott’s consistency and nearly perfect bill of health the past several years, he has accumulated over 1,433 total touches in his career and that may end up catching up to him.

13.04 (148th overall): Mecole Hardman (WR – KC)
This morning, Sammy Watkins signed a restructured deal to stay with the Chiefs in 2020 for $9 million. That doesn’t bode well for Mecole Hardman, whose value is built on an increase in volume. However, keep in mind that Watkins has failed to play in all 16 games since his rookie season, so the door could still be open for Hardman to have a good season. Hardman only received 41 targets and averaged a 45% snap share in 2019, so a boost to his playing time could offer a significant reward for his owners. If we look at Hardman’s fantasy scoring per 100 snaps, he ranked 26th among receivers in 2019 at 24.9 fantasy points per 100 snaps. His ceiling is as high as anyone’s, making his value this late potentially exponential this late in the draft.

14.09 (165th overall): Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV)
This is the second time that I’ve drafted Hunter Renfrow in a FantasyPros mock draft with one of my last picks. It may come back to haunt me if the Raiders draft a receiver later this month, but until then I’ll enjoy the potential upside that he offers. For example, in the 13 games that Renfrow played as a rookie, he commanded a 17.5 percent target share, which was second on the team. It’s looking more and more likely that Derek Carr will remain the Las Vegas Raiders’ starting quarterback in 2020, which provides Renfrow with a huge boost. His 6.2 aDOT matches up extremely well with the conservative nature of Carr’s passing as he posted a 6.5 aDOT last year (the second-lowest in the league). Renfrow can be a PPR machine in 2020.

Overall, I’m extremely pleased with the way this draft turned out. The Mock Draft Simulator graded me with an A as the best team overall, leaving me with lots of hope that this could be a league-winning team!

Here’s the full draft board:

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Sam Hoppen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sam, check out his archive and follow him @SamHoppen.

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