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First-Round Trade Likelihood for All 32 First Round Picks (2020 NFL Draft)

Apr 21, 2020

The Lions may value multiple picks over taking Jeff Okudah as a top 3 pick in the Draft

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The draft is all about identifying talent that fits your team and schemes and then maneuvering your team so that you can collect as many of those helpful assets as possible. One of the best ways to assure a team can get who they want most is to trade with another franchise that is willing to move down as they feel their target should be available lower in the draft order leading to the team trading down to hopefully get better along with collecting additional draft capital and saving money thanks to the rookie wage scale. In this article, I will go through all 32 first-round picks and grade what the odds are that the current owner of the pick will trade it. Along with the chances of a trade, there will be a quick breakdown of who the trade partners could be, whether the team with the pick is more likely to trade up or trade down, and what position could be the target for the team getting the pick.

Before we dive into the team by team breakdown I want to give a bit of a disclaimer. With the new setup of the Draft, it may be difficult for teams to trade up and down due to the fact that they don’t have a team of people all in the same room working on it. If I had to guess this should keep the number of trades lower than usual, but with that said there are still quite a few trade rumors flying around so let’s what the chances are that they actually happen.

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1.01: Cincinnati Bengals

The only way the Bengals could mess up this pick is if they trade down. I don’t see any reason for them to. They actually have a surprisingly talented offense that is ready for a young QB to jump into and Joe Burrow should be able to come right in and thrive if Coach Taylor is the right man for the job.

The potential trade partners also don’t make a ton of sense. The Dolphins have a ton of draft capital, but I don’t see a guy that could have the impact of Burrow at 5, 18, or 26. Chargers could be interested, but they don’t have the instant capital to make the Bengals consider it at all. This has to be Joe Burrow but never say never so I will give it one star for chances.

Trade Chances: ⭐ (out of five stars)

1.02: Washington Redskins

The only way the Redskins should trade this pick is if they can an outrageous haul of draft picks. They would need multiple ones, future picks, and maybe even a current player. I don’t see a player worth trading that for while also ensuring that the Redskins still get Chase Young at the spot they trade down to.

The Redskins should keep this pick because I don’t see any team wanting to trade up for one of the remaining QBs after Burrow is gone. So unless a team shocks everyone, like maybe the Falcons trying to move up and get Chase Young, I don’t see any way that this pick is moved. Chase Young is too great to pass up on. Adding him to the Redskins front seven should turn them into one of the most dominating units in the NFL.

Trade Chances: ⭐

1.03: Detroit Lions

This is the first pick that has seen a lot of buzz about being dealt. With two QBs most likely still on the board and the Dolphins and Chargers in dire need of one, they could make the move to slide up a few spots. With it only being 2-3 spots it shouldn’t cost too much. Dolphins could package two of their three firsts or the Chargers could offer 6 and multiple seconds or next year’s first.

If a trade does occur, the Lions will 100% be moving down to collect assets. They may not be comfortable with making the lateral move of just adding Okudah after losing Slay. Selecting a few players in the first might be more enticing than one player in the top 3.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

1.04: New York Giants

History tells us that you should be able to set in stone that the Giants will be picking here. Gettleman has never traded down in the draft and I don’t see it starting here. There have been a few rumbles that he might finally do it, but I don’t understand why they should. They can either get the best defender on the board or the best offensive lineman in this spot.

If they were to trade down it would need to be with a team currently in the top 10-12 picks so that they don’t miss out on one of the four top offensive linemen. There is a noticeable drop off after the 4th best tackle this year and the Giants can’t afford to miss out on one of them or Isaiah Simmons if they want to go defense. In the end, they look like they will stay put.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.05: Miami Dolphins

If there wasn’t a quarantine in full effect for the last month I would predict this to be a 5 star chance at a trade and it would be to move up, probably to 3, to grab Tua. Unfortunately, with the quarantine teams haven’t been able to private workouts or medical checks on players, so the risk looks too high to make a move.

That being said, if Tua is their guy and they want to guarantee they get him I wouldn’t be shocked by a trade. That is why I gave them the three stars. If they decide he is the guy and word comes out that the Chargers do too the Dolphins might not have a choice but to move up.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

1.06: Los Angeles Chargers

Basically you can look at pick five for the same reasoning. This would be a higher star count fi they could check Tua out, but since they can’t it drops the odds. I won’t take the idea of a trade completely off the table though.

It will be more difficult for the Chargers to make the move than the Dolphins. They don’t have multiple ones like the Dolphins so they would have to dip into future assets, but if in the end, they decide Tua is still the guy a trade will be needed. The quarantine and no rechecks or visits, in the end, holds back the chances of a trade to three stars just like the Dolphins.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

1.07: Carolina Panthers

There hasn’t been any buzz around the idea of the Panthers trading back. The reports that have come out are that they are very interested in acquiring Derrick Brown. This is the perfect position for them to do so, or they could make the move on a young offensive lineman to protect Bridgewater.

Barring a major haul, I don’t see any reason for the Panthers to trade down. They should not be out seeking a trade because they can get exactly what they want at their current pick. Especially with similar rumors that the team right behind them also likes Brown. That leaves no cushion to move down.

Trade Chances: ⭐

1.08: Arizona Cardinals

I believe this is quietly one of the hot spots to trade up to for teams in the teens wanting to secure one of the top receivers or offensive tackles. Before the Hopkins trade, this would have been one or two stars and CeeDee Lamb would be written in here for every mock draft. Now after resigning their left tackle and trading for Hopkins, those two positions aren’t as huge of a need anymore.

This could lead to them trading down and collecting draft capital to add more pieces to what looks like a potential breakout season for the Cardinals. There has been a lot of buzz that the Broncos and Falcons want to trade up and this could be the spot for them to guarantee who they want.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

1.09: Jacksonville Jaguars

I don’t think the Jaguars are actively seeking a trade down partner, but I think they have the best spot to trade up to for the teams in the teens. Just like I mentioned above, the Falcons and Broncos are both actively looking to move up and picks 8 and 9 look like the best spots.

I would say these are the best spots because of what I pointed out above for the Cardinals. For the Jaguars it is a good idea to move down because they have a ton of needs, especially on defense, and extra draft capital would be huge for them. Plus the cornerbacks and safeties fit as a better value in the teens-20s range.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

1.10: Cleveland Browns

The possibility of a move down here is way higher than it should be. Reports are coming out that they are willing to move down and select Ezra Cleveland. This seems like poor value to me when they could get one of the top four tackles at pick 10. They are a team that is ready to compete now and should not be looking to take a developmental tackle.

There would be plenty of trade partners, especially if some of the best tackles and receivers are still available. Or even if a team was looking to move up and take Jordan Love. If I’m the Browns it would have to be an impressive haul to move off the pick, but they seem very willing.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

1.11: New York Jets

The Jets look like they are already in a prime spot to land one of the top players to fill their tackle or receiver need. If anything I would see them move up a few spots to ensure they get a top player even more.

In the end, I think they stay put. They don’t have a ton of capital to make the move. They have an extra third and that is it. If they wanted to make the move it would take future capital, but I believe they are in a safe enough spot to get a tackle or receiver and not have to lose and capital to get them.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.12: Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are one of five teams with multiple first-round picks. With a few of those teams, I could see trading back to create more draft capital in rounds that they don’t have any and to just compile more young talent overall. The Raiders I could see being a team to do that, but not with their earliest pick.

I predict that the Raiders stay put with this pick and target one of the top three receivers. Odds are very high that at least two of the receivers are still available here at 12 and if they are it is a no-brainer pick. Barring a crazy offer they don’t trade down and I don’t see a huge reason to move up from here.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.13: San Francisco 49ers (from IND)

*Copy and Paste the reasoning from above* The 49ers have multiple firsts and they lack picks in the following round so I expect them to trade down, but I don’t see it being with this pick. They definitely don’t have the capital to move any further up, but that doesn’t seem like it will be a problem.

One of the top receivers should be available here still. Worse case they can take Kinlaw and replace Buckner with him, but based on who is and who could trade ahead of them I believe they will get a top receiver to pair with Deebo Samuel.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.14: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers I see as being a sneaky trade team. They are in the range where the linemen have a good chance of being gone, and it is too early to go RB. Unless they look to help the defensive line I think the best option will be to move down and pick up a few more picks while also getting better value from a player who fills a need.

The hard part might be finding a team to make the move with. The teams around them all already look like they are looking to move up even farther than 14. It is shaping up more like this could be a spot that a team in the 20s-30s moves up to if they want to secure their QB of the future in Jordan Love or Jacob Eason.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

1.15: Denver Broncos

Denver is poised to jump up the draft order and grab one of the top receivers in the draft to pair with Courtland Sutton. As for a landing spot, I would predict that they are targeting picks in the 8-10 range. All those teams seem like it would be best for them to move down or they have expressed interest in moving down.

The Broncos should be able to pull it off also with their multiple third and fourth-round picks along with possibly adding a 2020 or 2021 second and the 15th pick. It has gotten to the point where I would be more surprised if they didn’t trade up.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

1.16: Atlanta Falcons

At this point, I would say that the Falcons have the best chance of making a draft-day trade from their starting spot. The Falcons have publicly talked about making a move into the earlier picks in the draft since the Senior Bowl. They are most likely targeting similar picks as the Broncos. Picks 8-10. I believe they are targeting a star defensive player with the move. Someone like CJ Henderson, Javon Kinlaw, or K’Lavon Chaisson.

It will be interesting to see what their final offer is to make the move happen. The Falcons Don’t have a ton of pieces they can trade this year. The offer will probably include next year’s first and this year’s second plus this pick here at 16.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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1.17: Dallas Cowboys

Whether this pick is traded or not will depend on who is available more than any other pick up to this point. If there are still high impact defenders like Henderson, Fulton, McKinney, Kinlaw or maybe even Chaisson I think they stay put and draft one of those defensive playmakers.

If one of those players isn’t there that is when I can see them looking to trade down and collect picks. The more and more mock drafts I do it is looking like some high impact defenders will be there, so I don’t see a trade in the cards.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.18: Miami Dolphins (from PIT)

If the Dolphins don’t trade this pick to move up from 5 I think they will stay put here as well. There is a chance that a player falls and a team just below the Dolphins want to trade up to snatch them up. Unless that happens I don’t see the Dolphins making a move.

The Dolphins don’t need to worry about moving much here. They have a lot of needs and with a top 20 pick, it should be pretty simple to find another player right where they are that will help them on the way through their rebuild.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.19: Las Vegas Raiders (from CHI)

Raiders have a decent chance of trading down here. A ton of mock drafts have them going corner here, and I believe there will be a few available making a move down possible. If they do go for the trade they should attempt to receive a second-round pick in the trade because they don’t have one in this draft. They could combine this pick with a third and look to get a mid-20s pick and a late second-rounder.

The reason I don’t see this as a very likely trade is that I don’t see a ton of teams that would agree to that type of deal. The Patriots jump out to me, but they don’t own a second-rounder this year. There may be a prospect that intrigues the Dolphins and they have a couple of second-round picks. In the end, I think the Raiders keep the pick.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.20: Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)

If the Jaguars trade down from 9, like I think they could, they most likely won’t trade up from here. They have 12 draft picks before possibly trading down from 9. At some point, they have to start selecting prospects. So, either they trade up from here or use the pick. They would have plenty of ammo to move up with 11+ picks at this point remaining.

If there is a specific player they want they can easily make the move to go get them. At this point, I think they make the selection here. Start compiling prospects instead of picks. Their head coach is on the hot seat. He needs as many top options as he can get to turn the team around and keep his job.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.21: Philadelphia Eagles

If a trade occurs it will most likely be from the Eagles going up for a player. I predict they could be targeting Justin Jefferson, Jeff Gladney, Xavier McKinney, or one of the top linebacker prospects.  Pick 21 would be right around where I see those players being selected. To ensure that they can draft them it is very possible they will attempt to move up to the Raiders or Dolphins pick.

Compared to the first half of the round, this type of move shouldn’t cost much and with their 10 draft picks it is a feasible idea. The Eagles are a few impact players away from being back to making deep playoff runs again. A trade could be the first step to getting one of those types of players.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

1.22: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have multiple first-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft and a nice assortment of picks after round one. They could move up if they wanted, but I don’t think that would be a great idea. After a bit of a rough off-season, the Vikings have compiled a ton of needs. Luckily for them, it looks like a lot of players will be available in this range to fill those needs without having to make any moves.

After resigning veteran Kirk Cousins and entering the last year of Dalvin Cook’s rookie deal the Vikings need to attempt to make a playoff run. To do so they will need a good deal of help from their rookie class. That leads me to say this pick won’t be traded as they need to make as many selections as possible. Cast a wide net.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.23: New England Patriots

Bill Belichick has never been afraid to move around in the draft order. This year the Patriots don’t have a second-round pick and Bill doesn’t usually go entire rounds without making some sort of pick or move. I look for him to attempt to address the fact he has no second-rounder with this pick.

I would expect the Patriots to reach out to teams that own picks in the top 5 of round two and attempt to negotiate a deal. The Colts could be the perfect target. They have pick 34 and have been linked to Jordan Love. If Love is available I believe the probability of this trade happening goes from three stars to five.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

1.24: New Orleans Saints

The Saints have one of the most talented rosters in football. They don’t have many holes to patch, so they could easily keep their head down and make a selection right here. What I think could change their mind is if players like Justin Jefferson, Patrick Queen, or Kenneth Murray are all drafted by this pick.

If that is the case then I believe they look to trade down. That could be very helpful because the Saints currently don’t have a second-round pick. If they could acquire one of those to help add effective depth it would be a good move. The odds don’t look super high for all those players being gone by this pick though, so neither are the odds of a trade.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.25: Minnesota Vikings

Nothing much to add here. It is the same thought process as just a few picks ago. They have a ton of needs and need to hit on as many picks as they can. I look for them to stay put and find an instant impact player to fill one of their surprising amount of holes as they look to stay competitive in the NFC North.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.26: Miami Dolphins (from HOU)

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. If they don’t trade any picks up this point the Dolphins should have their franchise QB and another impact rookie. With multiple picks already lined up in the second round, I see no need to pull a Patriots type trade and try to drop to the top of the second.

Instead, Miami stays put and grabs another building block for the rebuild. If they do trade it would be up to grab a player they feel would be a steal. In that situation, it would have to be a player sliding farther than expected. Otherwise, they stay the course and make the pick.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.27: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are hard to predict. They have to be considered a wild card after selecting L.J. Collier and Rashaad Penny in the first round the last couple of years; both viewed as reaches. It has gotten to the point where it would be a surprise if the Seahawks did what we expected.

I think the surprise will come from who they select at 27 not from a trade. I don’t think they would trade down after already having two second-round picks unless a team in the top 3-5 of the second round wants to move up a few spots to guarantee a player. I don’t see a player in this range that would entice Seattle to move up in the order. All their targets should go right in their range with Yetur Gross-Matos and all the interior offensive linemen expected to be drafted here.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐

1.28: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens GM Eric DeCosta has done a great job since he took over the Ravens. He wasn’t afraid to move up two years ago and grab Lamar and if he has his sights set on a player this year he has the capital to make a move to get who he wants to help push the team over the top.

They have been heavily linked to Kenneth Murray and if they really want him it looks like they will have to go get him. The Ravens are one of the teams who could trade with the teams in the early 20s looking to move down and gather more capital. The Patriots at 23 or the Saints at 24 would be great targets to secure Murray.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

1.29: Tennessee Titans

The Titans are a hard team to get a read on. There haven’t been many reports coming out regarding trades or prospects they seem interested in. When you dive into mock drafts the majority of them have the Titans going defense in round one. To me, their defense is already at a point where maybe they should pass on round one and try to add a few more picks to their name.

Right now the Titans don’t have a 4th or 6th round pick and they don’t pick again after 29 until the 61st pick. A trade down with an early second-round team sounds like a likely outcome after not appearing to have one specific need. I’d look for them to trade with a team like the Colts or Chargers.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

1.30: Green Bay Packers

Since Gutekunst, the Packers have been far from the bland team that they have been in the past. He has shown that he won’t just sit around and hope that the player he wants will fall to him. In 2018 the Packers traded down for a future first-round and then further maneuvered to land Jaire Alexander. Then last year he used his second round one pick to draft Darnell Savage after once again maneuvering around some.

It would not be a surprise if Brian Gutekunst once again traded around to get the player he wants at the perfect value. It is hard to tell if that will be a trade up or trade down, but I give it a decent chance that the Packers do trade this pick in the end.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

1.31: San Francisco 49ers

After staying put early, the 49ers are almost guaranteed to trade this pick away and it will be in a trade down to collect more picks. Right now the 49ers have no picks after this spot until the 156th pick overall. They can’t let that happen if they want to maintain their place atop the NFC West.

This pick and the Falcons pick at 16 are the only five star chances of being traded. It would be a bigger surprise to see the two of them use those picks than it would be to see them trade it. To be able to collect a nice haul of picks I would predict that the 49ers would go farther than just the early second looking for a trade partner. I expect them to look for a team in the teens. That way the larger move would require more capital given up to the 49ers.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

1.32: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs do have a slight chance of making a trade with the 32nd pick. It seems that usually picks 27 and down usually have a good chance of being dealt because a team will be willing to jump back into round one to grab another guy that they didn’t think would be available.

Trading down wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Chiefs. They currently only have five picks this year in the draft and they do have to add pieces to the defense and the offensive line and backfield. A couple of extra picks would be more useful than one player at 32.

Trade Chances: ⭐⭐⭐

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Mark Johnson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mark, check out his archive and follow him @MJ_NFLDraft.

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