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The 2020 NFL Draft is almost upon us. Dynasty leagues have been holding their rookie drafts since the day the rookies were added to their league providers platform. Early drafting eliminates some of the benefits of tanking, rewards preparation and research, and is just downright fun. There is even more risk when superflex rookie drafts take place before the NFL Draft as there is no guarantee where quarterbacks who are not slated to go first overall will land. This means that today’s top rookie draft target may not be the top target when landing spots are determined. This is a 12 team, superflex rookie mock draft. These are not personal rankings or how I would draft these players, they are also not meant to reflect ADP. This is a reflection of how current rookie drafts should play out. Let’s dig in.
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1st overall: Joe Burrow (QB – LSU)
While there will be some draft rooms where team needs or doubts of Joe Burrow’s NFL upside cause someone else to be drafted first overall, he is the favorite to be tapped at number one in superflex rookie drafts. Joe Burrow is in a position to make an immediate impact in this format, and could even provide matchup-based QB1 upside. By year two, Burrow is expected to enter the QB1 conversation, making him a high-value target in superflex rookie drafts.
2nd overall: Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Alabama)
This slot is up for debate. There is going to be a large contingent of superflex dynasty owners who are concerned enough about Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history and perceived injury risk to pass on him at second overall. There will be others who simply need a stud wide receiver or running back more than they need a potentially high-risk quarterback. Tua has all the upside in the world and will be a QB1 within a couple of years time if he can stay healthy. The most talented pure prospect at the quarterback position since Andrew Luck, Tua will be an incredible boom or the type of bust that makes you cringe every time you hear the names of the players drafted after him. He will come off the board before Burrow in some draft rooms.
3rd overall: Jonathan Taylor (RB – Wisconsin)
In superflex rookie drafts Jonathan Taylor has the potential to be drafted first overall. Let that sink in. With two near-elite prospects at the quarterback position, even in superflex leagues, there are owners currently considering (or actually) drafting him over Burrow and Tua. That should give us all an indication as to how highly Taylor is held in some circles. In others, Taylor may not even be the RB3 in this draft class. Divisive despite massive production, Taylor has all the makings of an instant RB1. For those of you who hold a top-two pick, and do not necessarily need a quarterback, trading back to 1.03 should still net you one of the top two players in your rookie draft.
4th overall: D’Andre Swift (RB – Georgia)
D’Andre Swift is a talented running back with a workhorse skill set. Swift’s early dynasty value appears to be a little more landing-spot dependent, as the fear is that he may end up in a committee rather than starring with featured back touches. This should change as his initial competition is expected to be a veteran, but it is a reminder that there is a degree of risk and uncertainty when participating in rookie drafts that occur prior to the actual NFL Draft. Swift has RB1 upside given the requisite touches. The betting favorite to be the first running off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft, Swift is currently a value who could start to go as early as first overall once landing spots are determined.
5th overall: Jerry Jeudy (WR – Alabama)
The most talented wide receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft class, Jerry Jeudy has superstar potential. He is not the most polished receiver in this draft class but has the best combination of upside and floor. His number one trait is his Pro Bowl level route-running skills, but he also has the hands, speed, and football IQ to go with it. He is going to be a special player in the NFL, and one can only hope that he does not end up in football purgatory (otherwise known as the New York Jets). Jeudy will start his career as a WR2 type in dynasty but should reach weekly WR1 upside by the end of his rookie season. In year two and beyond, expect him to be in the annual WR1 conversation for the next decade-plus.
6th overall: CeeDee Lamb (WR – Oklahoma)
The most polished of the wide receivers in the 2020 NFL Draft class, CeeDee Lamb plays a lot like a 6’2 Odell Beckham Jr. If that is not enough to get you excited, he has the lowest bust potential of any of the receivers in this class, including Jerry Jeudy. He projects as being less team dependent for fantasy success, as he can still max out as a 100 reception, 8-10 touchdown player in a bad offense with an average quarterback. Lamb is an exciting wide receiver who makes magic happen after the catch. He projects as an immediate WR2 who will change the complexion not only of his NFL team but of his dynasty teams as well.
7th overall: J.K. Dobbins (RB – Ohio State)
J.K. Dobbins lost some of his dynasty shine due to not participating in the 2020 NFL Combine, and then missing out on his Pro Day due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Dropping him too far down draft boards will be a mistake. More likely than Taylor and Swift to end up in a favorable, fantasy-friendly landing spot, Dobbins could emerge as the RB1 of this class. Don’t believe me? Ask dynasty gamers where Matt Forte was drafted in rookie drafts in a class that featured Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, and Felix Jones (Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton, and Peyton Hillis were also in the class). Dobbins is someone to target if you are picking outside the top four or five in superflex rookie drafts. He is also someone to consider trading up or in for.
8th overall: Cam Akers (RB – Florida State)
Cam Akers appears destined to start his career in a competition for the starting job on whatever team he lands on. Akers is a special talent who is a little overlooked due to playing behind a decrepit offensive line at Florida State. He showed off his special movement skills, as well as his hands at the 2020 NFL Combine, and dynasty owners who were paying attention should have given a little bump to his perceived value because of it. His strong performance should garner him higher draft capital, which in turn increases the probability of him being successful in the NFL. Akers should be considered an RB2 with landing spot dependent RB1 upside in dynasty.
9th overall: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – LSU)
If there was a betting line on which running back not being selected in the top three at his position that had the best chance to emerge as the top fantasy running back in this draft class, the best value would be Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He will last even later than this in some superflex rookie drafts but has the type of fantasy-friendly game that suggests he should be in the mix as the second or third running back off the board. He should hit the ground running in the NFL due to his experience in a pro-style offense, and will be someone to target aggressively unless he lands with Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, or the New York Giants. CEH has RB1 upside provided he does not end up behind an even more talented running back.
10th overall: Justin Herbert (QB – Oregon)
Post NFL Draft, I expect Jordan Love, and possibly Jalen Hurts to be in the mix here, but for now it is Justin Herbert who is the lone quarterback who belongs behind Burrow and Tua in round one of superflex rookie drafts. Of course, if you are picking later in the first and have a strong need for a signal-caller, Love and Hurts should be considered, but their stock is not expected to rise until after the 2020 NFL Draft. Herbert is the safest of the remaining ‘Fab Five’ of this class but may have the lowest ceiling. It is almost hard to believe that someone with prototypical size, and plus scrambling ability may be viewed as the potential fifth-best dynasty option in this class when all is said and done, but such is the talent of the Burrow’s, Love’s, Tua’s, and Hurts’. Herbert is the pick here, and may even go as high as second or third overall in some draft rooms.
11th overall: Jalen Reagor (WR – TCU)
Jalen Reagor may have the most upside of any receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft class. Unfortunately, he also has a sizable floor. He is a little more landing spot dependent than one would like from a first-round pick, especially in superflex but his ceiling keeps him firmly in the first-round mix. Pick 11 and 12 will be in flux from draft room to draft room, but this is how early drafts will play out more often than not. This could all change after the draft wraps up, as landing spots will alter perceived value. Reagor is not A.J. Brown but is the type of player to worry more about landing somewhere he can eventually succeed, not succeed immediately. Don’t sleep on Reagor on draft day. He will be more of a WR3/4 to open his career but can reach elite WR2 or even low-end WR1 status within his first two seasons.
12th overall: Henry Ruggs (WR – Alabama)
Henry Ruggs is likely going to surprise a lot of people in fantasy. By now you may know that Ruggs did not have the greatest college numbers, a fact that has the analytics community down on him as a prospect. The annals of history are filled with workout warriors who simply did not produce at either the college or NFL levels at a level commensurate with what their workouts in shorts may suggest. However, Henry Ruggs is a different breed. Yes, speed kills, and burners are often over-drafted, but to believe the entire NFL has not dug deep enough to be aware of the potential cause for his muted college production is incorrect. We will not get into the debate regarding whether playing with four first-round picks at wide receiver affected his production here, but suffice it to say that if Ruggs is drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, that many of the teams will be planning on handing him a featured, high volume role. Will he be a weekly boom or bust option? Sure. But so are/were DeSean Jackson, T.Y. Hilton, Mike Wallace, D.K. Metcalf, and Marquise Brown. Ruggs should settle in as a WR2 with weekly WR1 upside in dynasty.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.
