Round 21 Fantasy Baseball Draft Analysis (2020)
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While the delay to the start of the MLB season is hard on everyone, it does allow for deeper dives into different aspects of fantasy baseball. You’ll notice that we’re doing this on a team-by-team and player-by-player basis with a pair of series we’ve put together. Additionally, we’re going to examine fantasy baseball on a round-by-round basis, covering 12 players per article and providing you a plethora of info specific to each fantasy baseball round.
We’ll keep things going with Round 21. You can find the complete series here.
Round 21 Player List
*Value: A total assigned to how the overall fantasy value of the round compares with other rounds relative to ADP/ECR (10 = most value: 1 = least value); Risk: A total assigned to how much potential risk exists compared with other rounds (10 = most risk: 1 = least risk); Studs: the number of potential league-winning players that can be found in the round; Busts: the number of potential busts that can be found in the round.
Q1. Who has the most league-winning potential of any Round 21 fantasy pick?
|Jarad Evans||@PFF_Jarad||Luis Arraez|
|Andrew Gould||@AndrewGould4||A.J. Puk|
|Jon Anderson||JonPGH||Garrett Richards|
|Mario Mergola||@MarioMergola||A.J. Puk|
|Carmen Maiorano||@carmsclubhouse||Garrett Richards|
|Bobby Sylvester||@BobbyFantasyPro||Starlin Castro|
|Dan Harris||@danharris80||A.J. Puk|
Q2. Who has the biggest bust potential of any Round 21 fantasy pick?
|Jarad Evans||@PFF_Jarad||Dallas Keuchel|
|Andrew Gould||@AndrewGould4||Aristides Aquino|
|Jon Anderson||JonPGH||Aristides Aquino|
|Mario Mergola||@MarioMergola||Garrett Richards|
|Carmen Maiorano||@carmsclubhouse||Dallas Keuchel|
|Bobby Sylvester||@BobbyFantasyPro||Aristides Aquino|
|Dan Harris||@danharris80||Aristides Aquino|
Q3. What is your general strategy tip for Round 21?
Luis Arraez is a batting average machine and a late-round target of mine in every single league, he has not hit worse than .298 in any minor/major league season. Ryan Yarbrough is the best option here among the pitchers as a bulk guy for the Rays. He will rack up wins and strikeouts while not killing your ratios.
– Jarad Evans (@Jarad_Evans)
Given a diminished emphasis on accumulating innings, I’d rather bet on Puk or Richards being healthy enough to get an extended opportunity as a late upside arm than take a Keuchel type. Pollock and Aquino would deserve to fall further down the draft board if not for the universal DH lurking as a probable life preserver. Following last year’s second-half power surge, Castro finds himself on my rosters more than any of these dozen players.
– Andrew Gould (@AndrewGould4)
It’s all about your team makeup at this point. Luis Arraez is a guy who can give your batting average a big boost late in the draft, but it does come at the expense of your home run total. Richards is my pick for biggest upside just because I think he can still be a solid top 50 SP when he is healthy, but it is pretty ridiculous to expect more than 15 starts from him at any point in his career moving forward.
– Jon Anderson (@JonPGH)
While the risk is not necessarily increasing — it can’t, as we’re in ‘depth and bench’ stage of the draft — the reward is also low. In a perfect world, this is where we would grab the big-time sleeper. Fantasy drafts are not a “perfect world,” however, and it’s highly unlikely that any major sleepers have lasted this long. Instead, I’m going in the opposite direction and drafting someone who has had a track record of success — maybe Dallas Keuchel or A.J. Pollock here — but suffered a drop in value in recent years.
– Mario Mergola (@MarioMergola)
Now, I’m transitioning to balancing needs with high-upside guys. In a normal season, Miles Mikolas would eat up innings and provide a great WHIP. However, volume guys like Mikolas and Keuchel have less value in a delayed season. On the other hand, high strikeout guys with an injury history like Richards have more value, since they only need to pitch half of a season. As for the needs side of the equation, if I haven’t picked up a catcher yet, Narvaez finally represents a catcher who could exceed their ADP, so he’s a solid option. If I need batting average and a second baseman, Arraez and Castro are two of the last hitters who fill both of those needs.
– Carmen Maiorano (@carmsclubhouse)
While I love the upside of 6’7″ left-handed rookie, A.J. Puk and veteran, Garrett Richards if he can finally stay healthy, this round is all about Starlin Castro to me. He finished as a top 30 middle infielder last season despite playing half of his games in the worst ballpark for right-handed hitters and all of his games in what may have been the worst lineup in baseball. He gets a major bump in both areas this year and is an absolute must-have for me.
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)
If you can get A.J. Puk this late, it’s a no-brainer, as his upside is nearly unmatched at this stage of the draft. Starlin Castro also offers value, batting in the middle of a strong Nationals lineup. And although I wasn’t considering A.J. Pollock before the delay, he should see everyday at-bats with the universal DH. Other than that, I’m passing on nearly everyone in this round. That includes Luis Arraez and his empty batting average.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)