Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
The difference is the position the player was drafted. Aaron Rodgers was viewed as a fifth round pick by many experts last year. If I took Rodgers at the end of the third round or the beginning of the fourth round last year, I was really disappointed. He had only 4,002 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns, which would not justify that high of a selection. He had nine games where he failed to throw multiple touchdown passes and he had only four games where he tallied more than 300 yards passing. I would not have been able to survive taking a quarterback that high that had that little production when I sacrificed taking a good wide receiver or running back in that draft slot I used on Rodgers.
However, if Rodgers had fallen to me in the seventh round and I took him there, he was not that bad of a player. He was the 10th-ranked fantasy quarterback with 17.65 fantasy points per game. At that pick, I would have probably had three running backs and three receivers, so I would hopefully have been strong at those positions. I also probably would have taken another quarterback later in the fantasy draft. I could have survived those bad games, because I was not picking Rodgers to be the centerpiece of my fantasy team. He would have been an overpriced streaming option, which is much better than an overpriced weekly starter.
Fantasy football is all about value. You want to take high-scoring players early in the fantasy draft and streamers and sleepers in the middle-to-later rounds. You want to roll the dice on younger players that may emerge later in the season over veteran players that are not able to stay healthy. By making sure a fantasy draft pick is both a good player and a good value, you enhance your chances of having a strong fantasy team.
Here are the 15 players that I currently think are overrated and overpriced in fantasy football. It does not mean they are bad players or will not be relevant in fantasy football, it just means their value is too high based on FantasyPros ADP.
Running Backs
ADP: RB14, 29 Overall
Fournette was one of the most used backs in the league last year. He tallied 265 carries and 100 targets, which made him third in the NFL in touches. Despite that volume of work, he was the 13th ranked fantasy running back with 1,674 yards from scrimmage and just three touchdowns. The Jaguars were so impressed with that effort that they declined the fifth year option for Fournette this offseason, tried to trade him for a seventh round pick and were unable to find a single taker. This will likely be his last year with the franchise.His current ADP suggests people are assuming he will be third in touches again this year. I am not seeing that type of workload. I think the newly signed Chris Thompson takes away a lot of the third down work. Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo could see more opportunities if Fournette continues to be inefficient. Jay Gruden is the new offensive coordinator, and he has no loyalty to a player that was very inefficient last year and has no future with the organization.
Players with 300 Plus Touches and 3 or Fewer Touchdowns in One Season
| Year | Player | Team | Touches | Yards from Scrimmage | TDs |
| 2000 | James Allen | Chicago Bears | 329 | 1,411 | 3 |
| 2002 | Edgerrin James | Indianapolis Colts | 338 | 1,343 | 3 |
| 2003 | Curtis Martin | New York Jets | 365 | 1,570 | 2 |
| 2005 | Tiki Barber | New York Giants | 347 | 1,677 | 3 |
| 2007 | Reuben Droughns | Cleveland Browns | 348 | 1,601 | 2 |
| 2007 | Willie Parker | Pittsburgh Steelers | 344 | 1,480 | 2 |
| 2009 | Thomas Jones | New York Jets | 338 | 1,336 | 2 |
| 2019 | Leonard Fournette | Jacksonville Jaguars | 341 | 1,674 | 3 |
*Source, Pro-Football Reference
Todd Gurley (RB – ATL)
ADP: RB18, 41 Overall
The Rams were so desperate to move on from Gurley, they took on $25.6 million in dead money and saved only $5.5 million in cap space this year. The reason they bit that bullet was chronic knee and ankle issues that left Gurley as one of the most inefficient running backs in the league last year. Gurley had just 223 rushing attempts and averaged only 3.8 yards per carry. He had just 31 receptions and he averaged only 6.7 yards per reception. His longest play from scrimmage was a 25-yard run, and the only thing that made him fantasy viable was 14 total touchdowns.
Gurley is currently ranked ahead of younger backs like Jonathan Taylor, David Montgomery, and D’Andre Swift. I think Gurley will be lucky to have more success than Devonta Freeman had in Atlanta last year with 243 touches, 1,066 yards from scrimmage, and six touchdowns. Freeman was the 21st-ranked fantasy back last year, so Gurley is being projected as an upgrade when I think his ceiling is similar to what Freeman’s was in 2019.
Derrius Guice (RB – WAS)
ADP: RB27, 77 Overall
Guice was the 59th pick in the NFL Draft back in 2018, and he failed to see a carry in his rookie season due to injury. Last year he had only 49 touches due to injuries and finished with 49 touches, 323 yards, and three touchdowns. To say he is now the 29th-ranked running back seems like a lot for a player that has not shown he can stay healthy. Adrian Peterson is still on the roster and Washington added running back Antonio Gibson in the third round. I could see Peterson leading the team in rushing attempts, Gibson leading the team in targets and Guice having a role as the change of pace back on a rebuilding offense.
Ron Rivera is a new head coach in Washington. He has no pressure to play Guice, because he did not draft him in the second round. There is a real chance Guice sees only 8-10 touches per game as a change of pace back. There is also a chance he suffers another injury and misses most of the season based on past seasons. There is a lot of downside there to take him as the 29th-ranked running back in the eighth round.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
ADP: RB28, 74 Overall
Akers is not being valued as an extremely valuable player, he would currently be a low RB3. The Rams used a second round pick on him, so he is definitely going to have a role on the team. Gurley is gone and there is a void to fill there in both the rushing and passing game. The downside is that with Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, and Akers all in the mix, there are a lot of different directions the Rams could go in when it comes to distributing the touches. This has the potential to be a true RBBC approach where Akers leads the team with 175 rushing attempts, Brown sees 100 rushing attempts, and Henderson sees 100 targets as the third down running back.
This could be a situation where one week Akers sees 15 carries and the next week he sees five carries. I am not sure I want that type of uncertainty with my RB3. Tarik Cohen is the 46th-ranked fantasy running back and the 125th-ranked overall player, and I do not think anyone can say with confidence that Akers sees more touches than Cohen sees with the Bears offense. That makes Akers overvalued at that position. He has some upside if he can earn a bell-cow role, but there is a ton of risk there too.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – TB)
ADP: RB41, Overall 105
Vaughn has become an early favorite to carve out a pass-catching role in the Buccaneers offense. The Buccaneers used a third-round pick on him and, he did have success as a receiving back at Vanderbilt. He had 28 receptions for 270 yards and one touchdown in 2019. Tom Brady loves to throw to running backs, so Vaughn would be a very valuable part of the offense if he wins the third-down back role.
There is more to being a third-down running back than just catching the ball. Third-down backs that do not block well are a liability, and a missed assignment can result in the quarterback being blown up on a blitz. Vaughn is not going incredibly high, but he is ahead of some more established players like Tarik Cohen, Jamaal Williams, and Adrian Peterson. I think Vaughn is a much bigger gamble those players, he could be the third-down back or he could be unplayable this year if he is not up to the task of pass blocking.
Wide Receivers
ADP: WR8, 25 Overall
Tom Brady‘s deep ball passing ability is a source of debate this offseason and there are some interesting numbers on both sides of the argument. One the one hand, he averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt, which was his lowest number since 2002. For comparison sake, Andy Dalton is now the backup in Dallas and many people feel he lacks a good arm. Dalton also averaged 6.6 yards per attempt last year. Where the disconnect is coming in is that Brady also had 60 completions of over 20 yards. That was the third highest of his career and more than the 56 such completions he had in his record-setting 2007 season.Part of the reason for that is he had only a 60.9 completion percentage last year. In 2007, he had a completion percentage of 68.9 percent. That 2007 team was much deeper at wide receiver though and Tampa Bay has some of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Evans is the deep-threat in the offense. He has averaged 17.7 and 17.3 yards per reception the last two years. If Brady’s arm was the problem last year, there is little chance Evans tallies the 160 fantasy points necessary to live up to his preseason ranking.
Tom Brady 2007 vs 2019 Statistics
| Year | Team | Completions | Attempts | Completion Percentage | Yards Per Attempt | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | QB Rating | Completions over 20 Yards |
| 2007 | Patriots | 398 | 578 | 68.9% | 8.3 | 4,806 | 50 | 117.2 | 60 |
| 2019 | Patriots | 373 | 613 | 60.8% | 6.6 | 4057 | 24 | 88.0 | 56 |
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
ADP: WR19, 44 Overall
Last year he was the eighth ranked fantasy wide receiver with 209.5 fantasy points per game. Valuing him as the 14th ranked fantasy player means that he should score about 190 fantasy points, which is about a 20-point drop in production. That does not seem like enough when the quarterback last year was Philip Rivers and this year it is a combination of journeyman Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert. Rivers had a down year last year, but he still had 4,615 yards passing and 23 passing touchdowns.
Taylor’s best passing season was in 2015, when he had 3,035 yards passing, 20 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions. If Taylor is the starter, it is conceivable that they lose at least 1,000 yards passing from their passing offense. If that happens, Allen is still going to be their featured receiver, but not the 19th ranked fantasy receiver in the NFL. I think Allen is a WR3 that is being valued as a low-end WR2 based on past performance with a superior quarterback that is no longer on the roster.
Michael Gallup (WR – DAL)
ADP: WR31, Overall 71
Gallup had his first 1,000-yard season, and he is only entering his third year. He is still only 24-years old and he has a lot of football ahead of him. The problem is going to be targets due to a new receiver taken in the first round. CeeDee Lamb is going to demand targets as a first round pick. Amari Cooper is going to demand targets as their star receiver. Blake Jarwin is going to demand targets as the starting tight end. They also are going to run the ball, and Ezekiel Elliott is going to demand 300 touches.
Last year, the Cowboys’ third wide receiver was Randall Cobb, and he had 83 targets on a team that threw the ball 597 times. Cobb was the 44th-ranked fantasy receiver, which seems a lot more likely ranking for Gallup than the 31st-ranked fantasy wide receiver. Gallup is still a very good player, but fantasy production requires the ball to be in a player’s hand. Gallup is just not likely to see the 113 targets he saw in 2019 as the second wide receiver on this offense.
Brandin Cooks
ADP: WR36, Overall 92
It is amazing to me that Cooks is going to be on his fourth team in seven seasons, despite having 402 receptions for 5,730 yards, and 34 touchdowns in his six-year NFL career. Cooks appeared to have found a home in Los Angeles, but was awful last year after a good debut with the team in 2018. He went from 80 receptions, 1,204 yards, and five touchdowns to 42 receptions, 583 yards, and two touchdowns.
The big problem was two concussions that he suffered in 25 days apart from one another. He was never the same player in the second half of the season. Cooks is actually ranked just behind Will Fuller, who is the 35th-ranked wide receiver and 90th overall ranked player in fantasy drafts. Both players could exceed that ranking, but they are both injury prone. The reality of the situation is that Cooks is a concussion away from not being able to play anymore. I do not believe his ADP reflects that reality and it makes me very hesitant to draft him at that spot.
Marvin Jones (WR – DET)
ADP: WR42, 109 Overall
Jones just turned 30 years old, and he only played 13 games due to injuries last year. His statistics looked much better than they actually were, as he finished the year with 62 receptions for 779 yards and nine touchdowns. The problem is that 16.1 percent of his receptions, 11.9 percent of his receiving yards, and 44.4 percent of his touchdowns came in a fluke performance against the Minnesota Vikings where he torched them for 10 receptions, 93 yards, and four touchdowns. He had eight games where he failed to tally 60 yards receiving and another eight games where he failed to score a touchdown.
I know that Matthew Stafford will be back this year and that the Lions will benefit from having him throw the football to their fantasy wide receivers, but Jones strikes me as the type of player that has a good game against Green Bay, another good game against somebody else, and a lot of games where he finishes with three or four receptions for 40 or 50 yards. I am not sure if I want to make that my ninth-round selection. I think guys like CeeDee Lamb, Mecole Hardman, and Diontae Johnson offer a lot more upside much later in the draft.
Quarterbacks
ADP: QB12, Overall 110
Why was Brady not Brady last year? Was it age finally catching up to him at 42-years old or was it a weak supporting cast at wide receiver and tight end? If you think it was his arm, you are not going to be impressed with the improvement in skill position talent. If you think it was the supporting cast, you think he is poised for a monster year on one of the most talent-rich offensive rosters in the NFL.
I would feel more comfortable with him for fantasy in the 250-point range, which would make him the 15th to 20th fantasy quarterback. There is not much room for error at his current ranking, he basically needs to have 4,000 yards passing and 25 passing touchdowns for that ranking to be accurate, which does not leave much room for him to be a bargain at his current ranking. The reality is that he does not have many years left in the league and 43-years old is very old to play quarterback in the NFL. His current ADP does not allow him to have any type of regression.
Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE)
ADP: QB14, 105 Overall
Mayfield was expected to build on his QB16 ranking in 2018. Instead, he fell to the 20th-ranked fantasy quarterback despite attempting 48 more passes in 2019. His QB rating fell from 93.7 to 78.8, his interception percentage increased from 2.9 to 3.9 percent, and his touchdown percentage decreased from 5.6 percent to 4.1 percent. By all measurements he was both a terrible fantasy and real life NFL quarterback.
What I do not understand is the optimism that new head coach Kevin Stefanski is the solution for every problem in Cleveland left by former head coach Freddie Kitchens. Stefanski is only 38 years old, he has only been an NFL offensive coordinator for one year, and the Vikings were 30th in passing attempts with him as the offensive coordinator last year. The Browns are hoping for the 12th time since 1999 that a new head coach is going to be the savior in Cleveland, which makes me pessimistic that Mayfield is a value as the 14th ranked fantasy quarterback due to a new guru as the head coach.
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN)
ADP: QB18, 139 Overall
Tannehill is not going to sink you at his current ADP, as he is the 18th-ranked fantasy quarterback with an overall ADP of 139. If you take him at that spot, he is a backup quarterback to a solid fantasy starter. I just question the wisdom of taking Tannehill when he had an extensive injury history in 2016-2018. Last year he only had to play 10 games after taking over for Marcus Mariota.
The Titans also run the ball a ton and throw it very little. The Titans were 31st in passing attempts last year. Joe Burrow currently has an ADP of 17 for quarterbacks and 167 overall. They should both be available in the 13th round, and I would rather roll the dice on Burrow having a big rookie year at that spot than taking a quarterback with an extensive injury history in one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league.
Tight Ends
ADP: TE4, Overall 40
The Eagles targeted the tight end position 235 times in 2019, which was by far more than any other team in the league. The Ravens were second with just 180 targets. The Eagles threw that much to the tight end position out of necessity. They had a lot of injuries at wide receiver and their tight ends were their best chance to move the ball through the air. Ertz had 135 targets, 88 receptions, 916 yards receiving, and six receiving touchdowns as one of the featured targets in the offense.
This year, the Eagles still have Dallas Goedert as a second tight end. He had 87 targets last year and he figures to still be a huge part of the offense. The Eagles still have Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson on the roster and hopefully they will stay healthy this year. They also added Jalen Reagor in the first round. Quarterback Jalen Hurts was drafted in the second round and he could be a gadget player that carves out a role in the offense. If Ertz sees only 100 targets this year, there is not going to be much margin for error for him to live up to that 41st-overall ADP.
Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB)
ADP: TE11, Overall 86
Gronk retired after the 2018 season, and he estimated that he had 20 concussions and nine surgeries before his retirement. His back was a disaster his final season. He had only 47 receptions for 682 yards and three touchdowns in 2018. He was the 11th-ranked fantasy tight end that season.
I think when players retire, we remember only their good moments. When we think of Gronk, we think of his three seasons over 1,000-yards receiving and his four seasons with double-digit touchdowns. It is our instinct to think that is who is returning to the NFL in 2020. We probably are not going to see that Gronk this year. Brady is not in his 30’s like he was from 2011 to 2015, and Gronk is now 31-years old and has had a ton of injuries. He will have fantasy value this year but not enough to justify being the 87th pick. I would much rather have Tyler Higbee coming off a strong end of the season, who is available for about the same price.
