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Our writers took a look at early overvalued players last week. Next up, they’ll provide players that they feel are flying a bit under the radar based on their current expert consensus rankings.
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Q: Which player do you think is most undervalued by the Expert Consensus Rankings?
James Conner (RB – PIT): Overall No. 51, RB21
Everything went wrong for the Steelers’ offense in 2019. Ben Roethlisberger was deemed out for the season in Week 2, and the backup quarterback play was horrific. JuJu Smith-Schuster dealt with injuries. James Conner did as well. This is an offense I’m very interested in buying this year. Of course, we are banking on Roethlisberger staying healthy, but there is a lot of value to be had with Smith-Schuster and Conner right now. Let’s focus on the team’s starting running back for a moment. Coach Mike Tomlin recently referred to the 25-year-old as a “featured guy and proven runner when healthy.” Additionally, Tomlin called himself a “featured-runner type guy by mentality.” It sounds like Conner will get the chance to resume his three-down role from 2018. Priced at RB21 in our ECR, that makes him a rare workhorse running back going outside the first few rounds of fantasy drafts.
– Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma)
James Conner is currently 21st among all running backs in the latest ECR and is a great fourth- or fifth-round value. Everything went downhill with the Steelers’ offense in 2019 once Ben Roethlisberger was ruled out for the year Week 2. Despite battling through a shoulder injury, Conner managed 715 total yards and seven touchdowns across 10 games. Earlier this offseason, Steelers HC Mike Tomlin said Conner was ready to take on a heavy role. “I’m a featured-runner type guy by mentality,” Tomlin said. “I think that when you have a featured runner, it gives him the opportunity to drop a stake in the ground and allows others to rally around him, and it gives him a set of core base run plays that he specializes in, and you find a rhythm that way.” If he can stay healthy, Conner is expected to be the Steelers’ primary running back and could revert to his 2018 level, when he ran for 973 yards and 12 touchdowns. The 25-year-old has the skill set to be a borderline RB1 and should be selected ahead of David Johnson, Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor, and Melvin Gordon, who are all currently ranked a few spots higher.
– Brad Camara (@beerad30)
David Johnson (RB – HOU): Overall No. 47, RB19
Last year for the Texans, Carlos Hyde — a running back who didn’t even join the team until the end of August — had 245 carries and 10 receptions, finishing as the 23rd running back in 1/2 PPR formats. Now, a vastly superior runner in David Johnson, who factors heavily in the passing game, is going as the 19th running back off the board? That’s ridiculous. Yes, Johnson’s 2019 season was dreadful, and he hasn’t excelled as a runner since 2016. But he will factor much more into the passing game than Hyde did, especially with DeAndre Hopkins gone, and be the primary ball carrier. If he gets close to Hyde’s total volume — and he will if he stays healthy — he’ll easily finish as a top-15 running back, maybe higher. He’s vastly undervalued in the ECR both in the overall and running back rankings.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)
Matthew Stafford (QB – DET): Overall No. 96, QB13
Stafford didn’t miss a game for the Lions from 2011-18 and finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in six of those eight seasons. Through eight games before injuring his back in 2019, he was averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game, the sixth-best at his position. Additionally, according to Next Gen Stats, Stafford’s 10.7 average intended air yards was the highest among all quarterbacks in 2019. He was making a concerted effort to throw the ball downfield, something that bodes well for his 2020 fantasy potential. Stafford is currently ranked as the QB13 and is being drafted around the ninth round in standard 12-team leagues, behind the likes of higher-profile targets such as Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, and Tom Brady. I would take Stafford ahead of each of those quarterbacks next season.
– Daniel Comer (@DanComer404)
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR): Overall No. 35, WR15
D.J. Moore is a steal at his current ranking of 35th overall and WR15. He finished the season as WR18 in half-PPR formats in 15 games with shoddy quarterback play. Teddy Bridgewater, who was spectacular in relief of Drew Brees last season, will be a sizable upgrade over Kyle Allen. Plus, new offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s playbook is predicated on scheming wide receivers open. His offense is the perfect fit for Moore’s skill set. Moore is only 23 years old, and with some more touchdowns has the talent to finish as a top-10 receiver. I’d definitely take him over Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, A.J. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, and Allen Robinson, all of whom are ranked ahead of him.
– Matt Barbato (@RealMattBarbato)
A.J. Green (WR – CIN): Overall No. 63, WR28
Green sat out the 2019 season with injuries that never seemed to improve, and many people speculated he refused to return to the field in an attempt to play his way out of Cincinnati. Instead of allowing him to walk in free agency, the Bengals applied the franchise tag. Green can either sign a long-term deal with the Bengals prior to the July 15 deadline, play the season under the franchise tag, or sit out again in 2020. If the 31-year-old wants one last monster contract, he needs to sign a long-term deal with Cincinnati or play for the $17.9 million he will make under his franchise tag and hope for a better outcome in the 2021 offseason. Sitting out 2020 will place him out of football for two years, and that is not going to help him secure a new monster contract next year. All of this sets Green up to have a big year. First, he sat out all of last season and allowed his body to heal, which means he should be 100 percent. Second, Joe Burrow should be a significant upgrade over Andy Dalton. Third, he needs to have a big year if he is going to receive the type of payday he wants in 2021. Green has been a top-10 fantasy wide receiver as recently as 2017; he was not a fantasy star in 2018 only because he missed seven games due to injury. I am not worried that last year’s injuries are chronic. Once the Bengals’ season was a lost cause, he likely decided it was not worth returning to a bad team and risk another injury costing him earning potential in 2020 and beyond. Given his past production, Green is extremely undervalued as a low-end WR3. I think he is going to be closer to a WR2 with WR1 upside, and I would love to be able to pick him as a bargain seventh-round pick.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
David Montgomery (RB – CHI): Overall No. 53, RB23
After a relatively disappointing rookie season in which he finished as the 25th-ranked RB in half-PPR, David Montgomery received a huge vote of confidence from the Bears when they left the 2020 NFL Draft without selecting a running back. That leaves Montgomery in the driver’s seat to operate as a bell-cow back in Chicago this season, with Tarik Cohen complementing him as a change-of-pace guy. Montgomery shouldered a heavy workload in 2019, garnering 71% of the team’s carries by a non-QB despite Mike Davis playing on 56% and 25% of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 2. Davis is now in Carolina, and Chicago didn’t bring in another veteran to replace him. Montgomery also had six touchdowns on 33 red-zone carries last season for a conversion rate of 18.2%, similar to Ezekiel Elliott and Josh Jacobs. Regardless of who wins the starting QB job for the Bears, Montgomery’s sheer volume and opportunity give him a safe floor and a high ceiling heading into this season. He’s currently ranked as the RB23 below Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, James Conner, and Mark Ingram, all of whom enter the season with question marks related to health and a potential time-share in their respective backfields. At just 22 years old with no health concerns and a backfield all to himself, I want all the David Montgomery at his current ADP.
– Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler)
Calvin Ridley (WR -ATL): Overall No. 38, WR17
The Falcons enter the 2020 season with the most vacated targets (258) in the NFL. The departures of Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman account for 167 of them. While newcomers Hayden Hurst and Todd Gurley will soak up most of those available looks, there are plenty remaining for other non-Julio Jones pass-catchers in this offense. Enter Calvin Ridley. The former first-rounder was on pace for 114 targets last season, but he unfortunately missed three games due to injury. Ridley should easily improve upon that per-game pace in 2020. Mohamed Sanu‘s departure midway through last season coincided with Ridley’s target count jumping from 6.3 to 8.2 per game. As demonstrated by his 13.5 average depth of target and 67.7% catch rate, Ridley turned those targets into production. No NFL team threw the ball as frequently as the Falcons last season, with their 684 pass attempts falling comfortably ahead of the second-place mark of 633. Having finished in the top five in 2018 with 617 pass attempts, it is clear that this team is going to throw the ball. Ridley’s target share has grown from 15.2% to 17.7% in his two NFL seasons, and it is likely that Matt Ryan looks Ridley’s way more than 20% of the time this year. That level of talent and target share in a high-volume passing offense provides a level of excitement about Ridley that is not appropriately reflected in his current expert consensus ranking of WR17 and 38th player overall in PPR leagues. Ridley has shown to be an efficient playmaker thus far in his career and is finally going to enjoy the volume that sparks a true breakout. Further, with Julio Jones commanding major attention from opposing defenses, Ridley will rarely work against a team’s top cornerback. Confidently expect 130+ targets this season, with Ridley emerging as a top-tier receiver in the process.
– Mark McWhirter (@mmcw19)
Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN): Overall No. 69, WR32
There is more upside to Tyler Boyd than advertised. Last season, he was top-10 in targets (147) and receptions (90), yet he is ranked 69th in the rankings. While you cannot expect touchdown volume from him, he is a candidate for positive regression after an inefficient 2019 and improved quarterback play. With the Bengals taking Joe Burrow in the 2020 NFL Draft, this should be an upgrade for Boyd. In 2019, he ranked 58th in catchable target rate (76.9%), 62nd in target quality rating (5.5), and 65th in true catch rate (79.6%). The Bengals were a top-five passing volume team in the league last season, and that is not expected to be any different in 2020. The return of A.J. Green should allow Boyd more space to work from the slot and possibly produce as we saw two seasons ago. If the passing volume remains and quarterback play improves, it is not hard to imagine Boyd finishing the season with 100 receptions, 1,200 yards, and, possibly, six touchdowns. It will be crucial to see him increase his yards per reception and yards per target totals. Based on his top-10 finish in yards after the catch, if he had more depth to his target he would’ve finished with more yards. Based on his expected volume, he is a PPR asset with high-end WR2 potential at a low-end WR3 price.
– Brandon Torricella (@Btorricella3)
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