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FanDuel PGA Lineup Advice: 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge

FanDuel PGA Lineup Advice: 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge

Welcome back to PGA DFS! Watching Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Phil Mickelson, and Tiger Woods in an exhibition was fun, but now we get a real PGA event to occupy our time. We’ve got a stacked field at Colonial Country Club this week! It’s probably the toughest field from top to bottom since last year’s BMW Championship, and that was during the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Let’s just say right from the start that nobody out there knows for sure how the golfers will play this week after a two-month break. I’ll try to make some educated guesses, but honestly, this development levels the playing field for everyone.

There are 11 golfers priced at $11,000 or above on FanDuel this week. FanDuel provides DFS players with a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Rory McIlroy ($12,200) is the only golfers priced in the 12K range. Jon Rahm ($11,900) is the next most-expensive golfer. Justin Thomas ($11,800), Dustin Johnson ($11,700), and Brooks Koepka ($11,600) round out FanDuel’s top five highest-priced golfers.

FanDuel has contests for everyone, ranging from their “Mega Eagle” contest, where you can turn $7 into $100,000 to their $0.05 “Lob Wedge” contest in which you can get a taste of mass multi-entering 150 lineups if you desire.  Regardless of which contests you choose to play, the depth of the field means that if you finish constructing your roster and don’t feel good about it, you should just start over. Every lineup that you submit should feel like a good lineup. Whether you go stars-and-scrubs or take more of a balanced approach, you should have a lineup that you like.

All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will consider for my own lineups. In fact, most of the plays mentioned are based upon my customized model that includes a variety of statistics and results. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. This article is written early in the week, so additional news, research, and roster construction could lead me to different plays.

You should work at having a solid process week-in and week-out, as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.

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Tournament Notes

  • The Charles Schwab Invitational is played at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The course is a Par 70, and it measures 7,209 yards. Only Augusta National has hosted a PGA tournament longer than Colonial.
  • 144 golfers are scheduled to tee it up this week. The top 65 golfers (and ties) make the cut and move on to the weekend.
  • Even though the tournament has gone through many name changes, it has continued to play at the Colonial Country Club since 1946. Previous title sponsors have included Dean & Deluca, Crowne Plaza, Bank of America, MasterCard, and Southwestern Bell. Two years ago, it had no title sponsor and was just called the Fort Worth Invitational.
  • Previous winners at Colonial scheduled to play this week include Kevin Na (2019), Justin Rose (2018), Kevin Kisner (2017), Jordan Spieth (2016), Chris Kirk (2015), Zach Johnson (2012 & 2010), Steve Stricker (2009), Phil Mickelson (2008 & 2000), Rory Sabbatini (2007), Sergio Garcia (2001), and Keith Clearwater (1987).
  • The Bermuda fairways are narrow (average of 28 yards wide), and the rough can be thick. Length is not as important as accuracy off the tee.
  • The bentgrass greens are small and fast with undulations and false fronts. They are also surrounded by a large number of bunkers.

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. From a stats perspective, this week’s best golfers (in ranked order) are Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Scottie Scheffler, Gary Woodland, and Daniel Berger.

Recent Form
Recent form is normally a good predictor of success, but after a two-month hiatus from golf, nobody has played well recently because nobody has played golf competitively! However, for those of you that still want to consider recent form, the golfers that rated out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) prior to the shutdown were Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Joel Dahmen, Sungjae Im, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, Max Homa, Daniel Berger, Jon Rahm, and Talor Gooch. Among the golfers in this week’s field, Collin Morikawa leads the PGA Tour with 21 consecutive made cuts. Webb Simpson and Matthew Fitzpatrick are close behind with 18 each. The only other golfers in this field coming into the week with double-digit cut streaks are Talor Gooch (12), Jon Rahm (11), Brendon Todd (10), Shane Lowry (10), and Rory McIlroy (10).

Course History
This year’s field is stronger than any other field in the tournament’s history. Many of the game’s top golfers skip this event each year. The golfers who have gained the most total strokes at this course during the last five years (in ranked order) include Jordan Spieth, Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner, Danny Lee, Brian Harman, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Emiliano Grillo, Harris English, and Charley Hoffman. Jordan Spieth has four top-10 finishes, including two runner-ups and a win in 2016. Kevin Na and Kevin Kisner are the only other players with at least three top-10 finishes. In addition to those three players, Webb Simpson is the only other player to have multiple top-five finishes.

Strokes Gained: Approach
Colonial has traditionally been a second-shot golf course. The SG: Approach stat has been the best indicator of success here. If your approach game is good, you will finish well at Colonial. This is always an important stat, but it’s even more so at Colonial. According to my custom stat model that measures both long-term and short-term form, the 10 golfers with the most consistent second-shot game are Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Jim Furyk, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, Tony Finau, Marc Leishman, Russell Knox, and Webb Simpson.

Official World Golf Ranking
While all the statistics and course history are good to know, sports (in particular, DFS golf) often comes down to playing the best golfers. Sure, salary is involved, but the more good golfers you can fit in your lineups, the better chance you give yourself. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Rory McIlroy (No. 1), Jon Rahm (No. 2), Brooks Koepka (No. 3), Justin Thomas (No. 4), Dustin Johnson (No. 5), Patrick Reed (No. 8), Webb Simpson (No. 9), Xander Schauffele (No. 12), Bryson DeChambeau (No. 13), and Justin Rose (No. 14).

Favorite $11,000+ Plays

Rory McIlroy ($12,200)
He’s the best player in the world, and he’s also played nationally televised golf in the last month. I’m not going to overthink this unless it looks like his ownership will be above 50%. If you’re playing DraftKings, then you have a decision to make, because he’s significantly more expensive than Rahm or JT. On FD, the price difference isn’t big enough to go elsewhere other than for game theory reasons. He has seven straight top-five finishes, including two wins. He is the best. If you’re playing only one lineup or three-maxes, then you have to play him. You can diversify a little bit in MMEs. Remember, though, no matter how great he has been, golf is a game of variance, and this is a very strong field this week. I won’t fault you for starting with any of the other elite players, but on FD, I’m playing the guy with the best chance to win.

Webb Simpson ($11,400)
McIlroy is my pick to win, but Simpson might be my favorite play of the week. His game is suited for this place, as he’s not great off the tee, but his approach and short game are alert. He’s become one of the best putters on Tour, and he’s as mentally tough as they come. He has five straight top-10 finishes prior to his ugly performance at the WGC-Mexico. However, that course doesn’t suit his eye, and he never plays well there. He missed the cut here in 2018, but he had top-five finishes in the two years prior. He has also done well lately after taking time off. He finished T3 at Sony, T2 at the RSM, and T7 at the Shriners in the last year when coming off a break of at least a month. Simpson is definitely a favorite this week, but I will also be playing others from this mid-to-lower 11K range. Bryson DeChambeau ($11,500) and Sungjae Im ($11,200) are two others who will find their way into my lineups.

Favorite $10,000 Plays

Collin Morikawa ($10,400)
He will probably be highly owned, but at this price tag, he’s almost an auto-play. He’s great off the tee and is an elite ball-striker. He is extremely consistent, proven by his 21-straight made cuts on the PGA Tour. In less than a year of being on the PGA Tour, he already has six top-10 finishes, including a win at the Barracuda. I will be plugging him in and then differentiating around him. If you want to go to the contrary, you can look at Marc Leishman ($10,700). He’s not usually a popular option, but he can pay off in big ways, like with his runner up at the API or his victory at the Farmers.

Gary Woodland ($10,300)
We sometimes forget about how good Woodland has become. The defending U.S. Open champion has six top-12 finishes in his last eight events. He’s one of the best athletes on tour, and he’s not afraid to go head-to-head with anyone. Nobody knows how any players will play after this extended break, but in the last two years, Woodland has had five different occasions with at least a month rest between events. He has four top-10 finishes coming off those extended breaks.

Scottie Scheffler ($10,200)
The former University of Texas star has played a decent amount of competitive golf recently on the mini-tours, which should have him in the right frame of mind.  In the last 24 rounds, he’s fourth in fantasy scoring. If he can get just an average tournament out of his flat stick, he could find himself on the leader board come Sunday. He’s a very strong ball-striker who’s not afraid to go at pins. DataGolf ranks him as the 11th-best player in the world.

Favorite $9,000 Plays          

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,900)
He’s made 18 straight PGA cuts and was T9 in his last event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Overall, he has six top-10 finishes in his last 11 events. He doesn’t have any weaknesses in his game, but he also doesn’t stand out in any one area. If you’re looking for more upside, you could pivot to defending champion Kevin Na ($9,800), who can be more boom-or-bust. He has two PGA victories in his last 17 starts.

Daniel Berger ($9,700)
Berger was really starting to find his game before the break, with top-five finishes at the Honda and AT&T. He also shot an opening-round 68 at the PLAYERS Championship before the season was paused. He had made six straight cuts, and in those 24 rounds, he ranked fourth in SG:TOT. If it looks like he’ll be highly owned, you could pivot to Billy Horschel ($9,600) or Joaquin Niemann ($9,500).

Harris English ($9,400)
English finished runner-up here in 2016, and then he followed that up with two top-30 finishes afterward. He has made 11 of 12 cuts, including five in a row. His last three events were a T9 at the API, T17 at Honda, and a T16 at the WMPO. He’s not the greatest with his irons, but he has a really strong game around the greens, and he can get hot with his putter (like Kevin Na last year). Colonial member Ryan Palmer ($9,400) is also another option here, and he’s got two top-six finishes in the last four years.

Max Homa ($9,300)
Only Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm have gained more total strokes on the field than Homa has in the last 24 rounds. He’s made 15 of 16 cuts, including nine in a row. He has four top-15 finishes in his last five events, including a T5 at the Genesis and a T6 at the WMPO. He is an excellent ball-striker, and when his short game is on, he can compete with the best. Homa’s good buddy Joel Dahmen ($9,300) is also a strong play on the heels fifth-place finishes at both the API and the Genesis.

Favorite $8,000 Plays

Victor Perez ($8,600)
In his last 11 worldwide events, he has a win and two runner-up finishes. He also was T4 at the WGC-HSBC, so he has shown that he can compete with the PGA’s elite. The world’s 40th-ranked golfer is an elite ball-striker with a strong approach game. He played collegiate golf at the University of New Mexico, so he should also be familiar with weather and course conditions in the southwest.

Talor Gooch ($8,100)
Has made 12 straight cuts, which is really what you’re asking for when playing a player at this price point. He also finished T13 at the API and a T10 at the Genesis before the break, so he has shown that he can sneak onto some leaderboards. He finished T29 here last year, too!

Favorite $7,000 Play

Steve Stricker ($7,200)
The 2009 champion isn’t flashy, and he doesn’t hit bombs, but his game is well-suited for this course. He hits fairways, has a solid approach game, and is elite around the greens if needed. He had a very strong inaugural season on the Champions Tour last season and was a fixture on the Sunday leaderboards. In his last three events, he finished T5 on the Champions Tour and then made the cut at the Genesis and the API, demonstrating that he still has a little bit of PGA game left in him. I like his chances to make the cut, and at this price, that’s all you need. I also don’t mind Jazz Janewattananond ($7,300), who is the 39th-ranked player in the world (though it’s mostly based on his success on the Asian and Japanese tours). He has finished T14 at both the PGA Championship last May and the WGC-HSBC this past Fall.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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