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12 Undervalued Players vs. ADP (Fantasy Football)

Jul 23, 2020

Fantasy football fans, it’s an exciting time. Opening Day for baseball is officially here, but we’re also seeing more news for the upcoming football season which is what you really care about if you’re reading this article. While there won’t be any preseason games, rest assured there will be plenty of coverage and advice coming from us. Between our expert consensus rankings and average draft positions (ADP), there’s a constant flow of updated data to help you nail your draft. To provide more context, we’ve asked our featured pundits below to provide their thoughts on the current ADP and name which players they feel are the most undervalued by the public. Come draft day, keep an eye on the following names for a chance at some steals.

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Q1. Who is the most undervalued RB based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?

James Conner (RB – PIT): Consensus ADP – RB20
“Mike Tomlin is going to give Conner the opportunity to be the every-down back again in 2020, and we have seen that role yield excellent results for fantasy. Conner’s sample from the games he’s played at least 70 percent of the snaps projects out to 277 carries for 1,289 yards, and 16 touchdowns on the ground with 67 catches on 87 targets over a 16-game season. That would have ranked him as the RB2 in 2019. No other RB around Conner’s ADP brings that type of upside.”
– Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)

David Johnson (RB – HOU): Consensus ADP – RB23
“I’ve heard the arguments against David Johnson, but I still think he should be drafted closer to an RB1 in half-PPR formats, rather than a borderline RB2. Through Week 7 last year, Johnson was the eighth-ranked running back in half-PPR leagues, and looked absolutely fine, despite playing in a system not designed for his style. Yet suddenly, he battles through an injury-plagued second half and everyone is off the train. The Texans gave up a ton to add Johnson and with plenty of vacated targets without DeAndre Hopkins, Johnson should get a big workload in both the running and passing games and vastly outproduce his ADP.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

D’Andre Swift (RB – DET): Consensus ADP – RB30
“I find it odd that  Swift is being chosen much later than Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs have a more explosive offense, but Swift is the superior talent and has a better chance of emerging as the starter. Andy Reid tends to rely on a committee, while Swift only has to worry about Kerryon Johnson, who always seems to get injured.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Joe Mixon (RB  – CIN): Consensus ADP – RB7
“This may seem weird, but I’m going to say someone with a first-round ADP: Joe Mixon. The difference in a given year between the 9th best fantasy player (Mixon’s ADP) and the 5th best (where I have Mixon ranked) is larger than the difference between a 7th round pick and a 5th round pick. I’m “reaching” for Mixon in my drafts because he is that true three-down, game-script-proof bell-cow back that commonly wins fantasy football leagues. Not only that, be only Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley are better talents and the Bengals should have a much-improved offense this year.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Q2. Who is the most undervalued WR based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?

Jamison Crowder (WR – NYJ): Consensus ADP – WR48
“It’s not a sexy answer, but Jamison Crowder is going about 8-10 spots too low in half-PPR formats. With no preseason games, it’s going to be nearly impossible for Sam Darnold to develop chemistry with either Breshad Perriman or Denzel Mims. But Darnold and Crowder already have a connection, and Crowder was the 31st WR in half-PPR leagues last year. In a season like this, “safer” players, especially at wide receiver, should be bumped up all fantasy managers’ draft boards, and Crowder’s guaranteed floor of targets makes him fit the bill.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Darius Slayton (WR – NYG): Consensus ADP – WR38
“I nearly chose Daniel Jones as my undervalued quarterback. I expect him to make a big leap in 2020, and part of that has to do with Darius Slayton, who was very impressive in the second half of his rookie season in 2019. I expect the Giants to be the major breakout team of 2020, and Slayton should be a big part of that. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes as a top-10 fantasy receiver.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – CLE): Consensus ADP – WR12
“Beckham Jr. burned plenty of fantasy owners and is perceived as a bit of a diva but that doesn’t change the facts that he is still just 27 years old and up through this age, he is the 3rd best fantasy football wide receiver in NFL history behind Michael Thomas and Julio Jones and tied with Jerry Rice and Randy Moss. We all know his talent, but it seems some have forgotten it because he decided to play through a sports hernia, while most would have gotten season-ending surgery for. ”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Robert Woods (WR – LAR): Consensus ADP – WR26
“He was the WR11 in 2018, even with Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley healthy and playing at a high level. Last year, he finished as the WR14 despite only reaching the end zone twice. Now, the Rams are missing over 30 percent of their target share and 50 percent of their red zone opportunities from the 2018 and 19 seasons, but Woods is being drafted as just the WR26. The floor is another top-15 finish, and the ceiling is there for a top-8 finish if L.A.’s post-Gurley offense is more pass-heavy in the red zone.”
– Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)

Q3. Who is the most undervalued QB based on his current ADP and why?

Matthew Stafford (QB – DET): Consensus ADP – QB13
“In his first season since 2014 without Jim Bob Cooter as OC, Stafford’s career-best deep ball rate (19.6 percent) and aDOT (11.4) both were at or near the top of the NFL. He ranked as the QB6 in fantasy prior to his season-ending injury in 2019. Over the past three seasons, in games Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones were both healthy for, Stafford’s 16-game pace is 4,454 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.”
– Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)

Jared Goff (QB – LAR): Consensus ADP – QB19
“I’m not a fan of Jared Goff in real life, but he’s undervalued in fantasy. The Rams’ defense will be worse this year with Wade Phillips, Dante Fowler and Corey Littleton all gone. That means Jared Goff will have to throw more in deficits, and the offense will go through him more with Todd Gurley also being a departure.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Tyrod Taylor (QB – LAC): Consensus ADP – QB30
“Once you get outside the top four or five quarterbacks every season, you are historically more likely to find a top 12 fantasy performance in any given week at the top of the streaming waiver wire. Because of that, if I’m not getting Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson or Kyler Murray, then I am solely focused on streaming in Week 1. Believe it or not, the top Week 1 streamer is Tyrod Taylor, who will be ranked within the top 10 in Week 1 at Cincinnati and with the best skill players of his career. Not only that, but his schedule is so easy the first nine weeks that you could feasibly use him that entire time.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Gardner Minshew (QB – JAC): Consensus ADP – QB28
“You’re not drafting Gardner Minshew to be your QB1 most likely, but the fact that he’s going 28th off the board at the position is darn near criminal. Minshew averaged 233 passing yards, 25 rushing yards, and 1.5 touchdowns per game last year, and finished as the 20th-ranked fantasy quarterback overall and 18th in points per game. There is no one looking over his shoulder, the Jaguars’ defense should be terrible, and he’s got a cult following among fans, meaning there’s every incentive for him to keep up his style both on and off the field. That means he should be viewed more as a top-20, rather than top-30 option at the position, and snatched up as a fairly decent QB2 in most leagues.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for giving us their undervalued players based on ADP. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice all year round.

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