Skip to main content

DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy: Tuesday (7/28)

Jul 28, 2020

Baseball is back, and by mid-week, most teams will already be over 10% of the way through their season. Nothing is “business as usual” this season, and that holds true for DFS. Finding value will be tougher than ever, but our goal is to cash in as much as possible now that we have a least a condensed season. Today is a 10 game featured slate, so let’s set up a successful strategy.

If you have any questions, reach out to me on Twitter @RyanWhitfieldNE

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Daniel Mengden (OAK) vs. COL $7,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Zach Davies (SD) @ SF $8,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Matt Hall (BOS) vs. NYM $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

All three of these come with some inherent risk, and they are largely matchup-based plays. Look, where we are early in this season (a season unlike any that any of us have ever seen), where there isn’t a lot of concrete data to base decisions on. That said, here’s why these three have the potential to bring some value.

Daniel Mengden is coming off of the DL after a season where he averaged 9.4 FPPG, so that’s the risk. The matchup is favorable, though, as Colorado is in the bottom five of the league in terms of runs scored. The club also features one of the two worst batting averages so far. It’s a small sample size, but that’s what we have to look at.

Zach Davies faces a less desirable matchup, at least to this point, as the Giants are closer to the middle of the league in batting average and runs scored. However, Davies was 10-7 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP last season. Those numbers certainly aren’t going to blow you away, but they are good enough to compete at this value. Also, he is being pushed by some young arms in San Diego, so it’s important that he get off to a hot start.

Matt Hall faces off against the Mets, who are last in the league in runs scored and in the bottom third for batting average. Hall has no set spot in the rotation, and he’s an extremely risky play. That said, he has an ideal matchup and an extremely low cost.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Yadier Molina (STL) @ MIN $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. SEA $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Max Muncy (LAD) @ HOU $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

Yadier Molina is off to a three-game hit streak, faces Homer Bailey, and only costs $3,900. Shohei Ohtani’s health has been in question, but pitching coach Mickey Callaway said he his totally healthy. He will face off against Justus Sheffield, who has a 5.82 ERA in just 38.2 innings pitched in the majors. He’s worth a buy at this price. Max Muncy is 4-for-16 this season with four extra-base hits and will face a guy with less than 40 career MLB games.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Keston Hiura (MIL) @ PIT $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Kolten Wong (STL) @ MIN $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Max Muncy (LAD) @ HOU $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

Keston Hiura is off to a slow start, but the second baseman slashed .303/..368/.570 just last season. Today, he faces off against Derek Holland, who has posted a sub 4.00 ERA just once in the last five seasons. With Kolten Wong, I’m again attacking the Homer Bailey matchup. That aside, Wong is off to a good start batting .333 with three runs scored. Muncy has the 1B/2B designation, with 2B being a tough position, if you don’t use him at 1B, he’s worth a play at 2B.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Justin Turner LAD) @ HOU $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
J.D. Davis (NYM) @ BOS $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Josh Donaldson (MIN) vs. STL $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐ High

As noted with Max Muncy, I like this matchup for the Dodgers, and they have produced the second-most runs scored this season. In addition to that, Turner has slashed .467/.556/.733 through the beginning stage of this season. While his price isn’t cheap, he is only the fifth most expensive third baseman tonight.

Since I mentioned Boston’s Matt Hall for pitchers earlier, suggesting Davis may sound contradictory. But I’m just playing both sides here. The Mets offense has been abysmal, but the Red Sox are eighth-worst in the league with allowing 5.33 runs per game, including seven to the Mets last night. Davis is off to a slow start, but he hit .307 with 22 home runs just last year. At this price, I’m buying. Donaldson is off to a slow start this year, and this isn’t the perfect matchup. Still, he hit 37 home runs and drove in 94 runs last season, and the Twins are averaging nine runs a game so far.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) vs. NYM $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jorge Polanco (MIN) vs. STL $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Niko Goodrum (DET) vs. SD $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

Xander Bogaerts is only hitting .214 this season, but he went yard for the first time this season on Monday against the Mets. Bogaerts is a premiere shortstop and is priced as only the seventh most expensive one for Tuesday. As mentioned, the Twins offense has been hot to start, and Polanco is hitting .308 with two RBIs. Goodrum is a riskier option, but he’s hitting .250 with a home run and has an ideal matchup.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Cody Bellinger (LAD) @ HOU $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Mookie Betts (LAD) @ HOU $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Nelson Cruz (MIN) vs. STL $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Tommy Pham (SD) @ SF $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Eddie Rosario (MIN) vs. STL $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Cody Bellinger has not had a fast start, but he is only the eighth-highest salary tonight. Knowing that, and knowing his high-end potential, he is a worthwhile investment. Keeping it in LA, we are applying the same logic here. Betts is hitting just .150 so far, but we know what his ceiling is. Buying low on him makes sense right now. Nelson Cruz is even cheaper and is playing out of his mind right now. He has a .538 batting average with three home runs and 10 RBI. Tommy Pham has a .222 batting average but has three runs scored and four stolen bases. Eddie Rosario is batting .250 but has four runs scored, two RBI, and a favorable matchup.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Christian Yelich (OF – MIL) $5,900: Yelich is the second most expensive outfielder today and is just 1-for-18 so far this season.
  • Rafael Devers (3B – BOS): Devers is slashing .118/.167/.235 and is the third most expensive third baseman today.
  • Will Smith (C – LAD): Will Smith has a home run, but that’s his only hit in seven plate appearances this season. With the fourth-highest salary for a catcher today, I’m fading him.
  • Walker Buehler (SP – LAD) $11,300: Buehler is the most expensive pitcher today, and the Astros lineup has produced the third most amount of runs this year.
  • Rougned Odor (2B – TEX) 4,100: Odor is slashing just .182/.250/.273, and he is the seventh most expensive second baseman today.

Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Beyond our daily fantasy baseball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Baseball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.

Ryan Whitfield is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive and follow him @RyanWhitfieldNE.

What's your take? Leave a comment

Build winning DFS lineups

Use the FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer to build winning lineups based on expert projections.