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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (7/31)

Jul 31, 2020

Ricky Rubio gets a superb matchup against the worst defense in the NBA.

After a fun opening night, we’re finally getting a full slate of basketball. We have six games spread all throughout the day and it looks like there are some huge prize pools on DraftKings. With that in mind, let’s get into it and breakdown what we like here.

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings >>

Point Guard

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Luka Doncic (DAL) vs. HOU $10,500 Five Stars Low
vs. MEM $9,300 Four Stars Low
vs. WSH $7,400 Four Stars Medium
Shabazz Napier (WSH) vs. PHX $5,700 Three Stars Medium

 
Luka Doncic is probably the best play on the board and I’ll go over that later in the article. Damian Lillard isn’t too bad either, facing a 23rd ranked Grizzlies defense. Rubio also gets a superb matchup against the worst defense in the NBA. As for Napier, he’s the only Washington guard remaining with John Wall and Bradley Beal both missing the restart and could be a sneaky value.

Shooting Guard

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Harden (HOU) vs. DAL $11,000 Four Stars Low
Devin Booker (PHX) vs. WSH $8,800 Three Stars Low
Caris LeVert (BKN) vs. ORL $7,800 Three Stars Medium
Troy Brown Jr. (WSH) vs. PHX $4,700 Three Stars High

 
James Harden is always reliable and is worth a shot at $11,000. Booker gets a superb matchup against the Wizards. LeVert might have the highest usage of anybody, with Brooklyn playing without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Taurean Prince. Brown is certainly risky but someone has to step up in Washington with Wall, Beal, and Davis Bertans all out.

Bet $1, Win $100 if the Lakers or Clippers Hit a Three >>

Small Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jayson Tatum (BOS) @ MIL $8,700 Three Stars Medium
vs. SAC $7,700 Four Stars Low
Robert Covington (HOU) vs. DAL $6,100 Three Stars Medium
Danuel House Jr (HOU) vs. DAL $3,800 Three Stars High

 
This is definitely the weakest position. Tatum is a tough bet against a stingy Milwaukee defense but is still the best option at the small forward position. DeRozan is a great pick below $8,000, taking over in the absence of LaMarcus Aldridge. Covington should play big minutes for this short Rocket’s roster and House is expected to take over the Eric Gordon role.

Power Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. BOS $10,500 Three Stars Low
Aaron Gordon (ORL) vs. BKN $7,200 Four Stars Medium
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM) vs. POR $4,900 Three Stars High
Isaac Bonga (WSH) vs. BKN $3,300 Four Stars High

 
It’s strange to see Giannis not up top in terms of salary. That alone puts him in play and makes him one of the best bets out there. Aaron Gordon was having a breakout season before the restart and should have success against this shorthanded Nets team. JJJ’s price is really surprising and he’s definitely worth a shot in a GPP. Bonga is one of the riskiest plays in this article but could be looking at 30 minutes with Bertans and Beal gone.

Center

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nikola Vucevic (ORL) vs. BKN $8,500 Four Stars Low
Deandre Ayton (PHX) vs. WSH $7,900 Five Star Medium
Jarrett Allen (BKN) vs. ORL $5,800 Three Stars Low
vs. SAC $4,700 Four Stars Medium

 
This is my favorite position. We’ll talk about Vooch in the next section while Ayton gets a spectacular matchup against the Wizards. Allen and Poeltl are expected to step into starting roles, making them some of the best values out there. It’s almost impossible to fade both of those guys with their 8X upside and expanded roles.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic, DAL ($10,500): Doncic gets a super matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. In their one matchup earlier this season, he had 41 points, six rebounds, and 10 assists en route to 71 DraftKings points. Don’t be afraid to pay up for the 21-year-old.
  • Devin Booker, PHX ($8,800): Booker is averaging 42.4 DraftKings points per game for the season. What makes him attractive here is the matchup, facing a Washington club that ranks last in nearly every defensive category.
  • Nikola Vucevic, ORL ($8,500): The Nets roster is dismantled and Vucevic should roll right through them. In two games against them, he’s averaging 44 fantasy points per game.
  • DeMar DeRozan, SAN ($7,700): With LaMarcus Aldridge injured, DeRozan could be looking at 20-plus shots and a usage rate approaching 30 percent. That’s big news against a subpar Kings defense.
  • Jarrett Allen, BKN ($5,800): With Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan, and Taurean Prince all out, Allen should be looking at a huge role. With Jordan off the floor this season, Allen is averaging 35 fantasy points per game in 33 minutes of action. I also love Poeltl starting for Aldridge in San Antonio, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in that circumstance.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Russell Westbrook, HOU ($9,400): I just don’t trust Westbrook with Harden out there. He very well might outperform this price tag but not in my lineup.
  • De’Aaron Fox, SAC ($7,600): Fox is coming off of an ankle issue and may see limited minutes.
  • Kemba Walker, BOS ($7,100): Walker isn’t expected to play more than 20 minutes, making him off-limits.
  • Rui Hachimura, WSH ($7,400): I know that all of the Wizards are out but this price tag is crazy. Hachimura has only performed up to this level a handful of times all season long.
  • Jusuf Nurkic, POR ($5,900): Nurkic just returned from a devastating leg injury and will likely be looking at limited minutes. That makes him and Hassan Whiteside hard to trust.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sosa, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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