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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Thursday (7/30)

Jul 30, 2020

Arguably, Donovan Mitchell owns the best matchup of the night.

Welcome back to the official re-launch of the 2020 NBA season! Tonight’s schedule offers a two-game slate, with the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans tipping-off at 6:30 p.m. EST, and the Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers tipping-off at 9:00 p.m. EST. Tonight’s slate may include some rust as teams have been sidelined since mid-March, but the hope is all goes well and the re-launch of the NBA season and DFS season is as smooth as can be.

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings >>

Point Guard

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Mike Conley (UTA) @ NOP $6,200 Two Stars MEDIUM
Lonzo Ball (NOP) vs. UTA $7,400 Two Stars MEDIUM
Patrick Beverley (LAC) @ LAL $4,100 Two Stars LOW
LeBron James (LAL) vs. LAC $10,700 Three Stars MEDIUM

With only two games on the docket, every player will be listed in every position. The best matchup of this bunch is LeBron James’ matchup, even if he draws a lot of Kawhi Leonard or Paul George defensively tonight. Lonzo Ball’s matchup is an intriguing one, but the pace of the Jazz certainly hurts his value to some degree. Mike Conley’s matchup against the Pelicans (team-wise) is ideal, but his individual matchup against Ball will be a tough one to exploit.

Shooting Guard

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Donovan Mitchell (UTA) @ NOP $7,000 Three Stars MEDIUM
Jrue Holiday (NOP) vs. UTA $8,600 Three Stars MEDIUM
Paul George (LAC) @ LAL $7,200 Three Stars LOW
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL) vs. LAC $4,000 Two Stars LOW

Arguably, Mitchell owns the best matchup of the night, even though his individual matchup looks to be a tough one as he opposes Jrue Holiday. The pace of the Pelicans is sure to lead to a ton of opportunities for Mitchell. Holiday’s matchup going the other way is juicy, as Mitchell does not offer the same defensive prowess, but the lack of pace will limit his opportunities. George will likely draw a fair amount of Danny Green on defense — that’s certainly a matchup he can exploit, even though Green is one of the better 3-and-D players in the NBA.

Bet $1, Win $100 if the Lakers or Clippers Hit a Three >>

Small Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Joe Ingles (UTA) @ NOP $5,700 Three Stars LOW
Brandon Ingram (NOP) vs. UTA $8,300 Four Stars LOW
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) @ LAL $9,200 Three Stars HIGH
Danny Green (LAL) vs. LAC $3,500 Three Stars LOW

The best matchup of this group is certainly Brandon Ingram’s — which is why his matchup ranks as a four-star option. Again, the pace of the Jazz may limit his opportunities to some degree, but Ingram’s complete game should keep him productive — evidenced by his average of 58.0 DraftKings points against the Jazz this season (three games). Joe Ingles will have a decent shot at returning a value, too — he’s averaged 28.8 DraftKings points in three games versus the Pelicans this season. Leonard is arguably the most interesting player on the slate — he’s scored an average of 47.5 DraftKings points against the Lakers this season (three games). He’s likely to draw a fair amount of LeBron on defense, which is a tough matchup for anyone to exploit, but Leonard has been productive against the Lakers this season.

Power Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Royce O’Neale (UTA) @ NOP $4,900 One Star MEDIUM
Zion Williamson (NOP) vs. UTA $7,500 Five Stars LOW
Marcus Morris (LAC) @ LAL $4,700 One Star LOW
Anthony Davis (LAL) vs. LAC $10,000 Four Stars MEDIUM

Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis headline this group as the two star-studded options. Davis has experienced admirable success against the Clippers this season, with his average of 46.3 points across three contests. Williamson was on an absolute tear when he finally got on the court, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue — even if he has to work in the paint against the Jazz’s and Rudy Gobert’s¬†tough defense. Morris could be a cheap buy-low option for some exposure to the Clippers, as Montrezl Harrell is expected to miss tonight’s contest.

Center

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Rudy Gobert (UTA) @ NOP $7,100 Four Stars LOW
Derrick Favors (NOP) vs. UTA $5,800 One Star HIGH
Ivica Zubac (LAC) @ LAL $4,500 Two Stars LOW
JaVale McGee (LAL) vs. LAC $3,600 Three Stars LOW

No center has a better matchup than Gobert — he may have the best matchup of the night. The Pelicans play with a lot of pace and don’t really possess a big body that can bang with Gobert in the paint. Conversely, Favors will need to oppose Gobert. He’ll likely have a tough time producing down low, but he has averaged 41.0 DraftKings points in two contests against the Jazz this season.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Zion Williamson, NOP ($7,500): Zion is a machine — plus, his matchup is a good one. Fire him up with confidence tonight.
  • Anthony Davis, LAL ($10,000): While AD is always an injury concern, his matchup is pretty decent, and he carries less risk than most of the big-name options on this slate.
  • Rudy Gobert, UTA ($7,100): Gobert should have a field day opposing Derrick Favors. Expect a strong game out of the defensive stalwart, as the pace of the Pelicans is sure to help.
  • Paul George, LAC ($7,200): A discounted price tag for a star player is always a good option to target, and that’s exactly what George offers tonight. PG13 doesn’t even need a great game to reach value.
  • Brandon Ingram, ($8,300): Ingram has a shot to really produce tonight, even on a loaded Pelicans roster that is hard to predict when healthy. Certainly, Joe Ingles won’t be the man to stop him.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($7,000): Expect Mitchell to receive a strong workload and all the shots needed for a strong night. The only issue is the defensive prowess of the guard combo of the Pelicans.
  • LeBron James, LAL ($10,700): LeBron has been fairly productive against the Clippers all season, hovering right around value in his three-game average against them. It should be a tough matchup for the veteran, though, which carries a lot of risk on such a small slate.
  • Lonzo Ball, NOP ($7,400): Conley is still a decent defender at this point in time. In addition, the Pelicans are fully healthy and should field their legitimate starting roster tonight, leaving Ball with fewer scoring opportunities.
  • Derrick Favors, NOP ($5,800): Favors has experienced a ton of success against the Jazz this season, but it should come as no surprise his name is on this list. He’ll oppose arguably the best defender in the NBA.
  • Jrue Holiday, NOP ($8,600): Holiday can reach value on any given night, mostly due to his dominant defensive presence. The issue is the health of the Pelicans — which should limit his offensive opportunities a fair amount. In addition, the pace of the Jazz won’t help with getting more opportunities.

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Sosa Kremenjas is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sosa, check out his archive and follow him @QBsMVP.

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