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Negative Target Regression: Running Backs (2020 Fantasy Football)

Negative Target Regression: Running Backs (2020 Fantasy Football)

Earlier this month, I highlighted five running backs who I expect to see positive target regression in 2020. While researching for that article, I came across a few names whose impressive 2019 receiving statistics felt out of place and unsustainable.

Understanding the implications of roster moves and coaching changes is crucial in fantasy football, as they can drastically improve (see Kyle Shanahan’s running back history) or diminish (see Adam Gase’s running back history) a player’s productivity in a new football season. Identifying which personnel changes matter is crucial to crafting an effective draft strategy.

In PPR leagues, the first stat fantasy managers often evaluate is running back targets. The correlation between targets and running back fantasy success is clear, so we’ve identified five guys who outperformed receiving expectations last season and could receive fewer targets in 2020.

For a running tally of player targets, check out FantasyPros’ weekly target report throughout the football season.

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Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
I hesitate to list McCaffrey in an article that has negative fantasy implications, but his record-setting 142 targets at running back last season seem unlikely to repeat, especially with a new head coach and offensive coordinator in Carolina.

While McCaffrey should again lead running backs in targets and fantasy scoring, I wouldn’t be shocked to see his new coaching staff taper the $64 million man’s usage in the first season of his four-year deal.

Look for career performances from receivers D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson in Joe Brady’s electric passing attack in 2020, but don’t expect McCaffrey to rewrite the records books for a second consecutive season.

Leonard Fournette (JAC)
Fournette is the most obvious regression candidate on this list after totaling 76 receptions on 100 targets in 2019. In his first two seasons, the Jaguars’ lead back averaged 56 targets per 16 games, making last year’s significant target share look more like an anomaly than a sign of things to come.

There was a perfect storm of receiving opportunity last season for Fournette, who benefited from a depleted offensive unit led by checkdown-happy rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew.

This season won’t be as fortuitous, however, as the former No. 4 overall pick will likely lose targets to pass-catching specialist Chris Thompson and versatile rookie Laviska Shenault Jr.

Aaron Jones (GB)
Jones had a career-high 68 targets in 2019, finishing the season as the Packers’ second-most targeted player behind Davante Adams.

While Jones’ 68 targets might not seem difficult to repeat, we have to factor in that Adams missed four games to a turf toe injury in 2019. Jamaal Williams, who tied for second among NFL running backs with five receiving touchdowns last season, missed the better part of three games to myriad injuries.

With the addition of second-round pick A.J. Dillon to a crowded backfield, plus expected significant receiving roles for Allen Lazard and Devin Funchess opposite Adams, targets should be distributed more evenly among Green Bay’s skill players in 2020.

Jaylen Samuels (PIT)
Samuels totaled 57 targets last season, which ranked higher than popular fantasy running backs such as Nick Chubb, Todd Gurley, and Joe Mixon.

Looking strictly at last year’s game logs, Samuels seems like an occasional flex-worthy PPR running back entering 2020. Context, however, can’t be overlooked when it comes to Pittsburgh’s downtrodden offense in 2019.

Starting running back James Conner missed six games, star wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster had his most disappointing year as a pro, and franchise quarterback Ben Roethlisberger played in only two contests before suffering a season-ending injury that left Mike Tomlin deciding between Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph on a weekly basis.

Healthy seasons from Conner, Roethlisberger, and Smith-Schuster — plus competition from fellow backup running backs Anthony McFarland Jr. and Benny Snell Jr. — should lead to regression in Samuels’ usage this season.

Royce Freeman (DEN)
Freeman led Denver running backs with 50 targets last season, which ranked 20th in the NFL at the position. The former third-round pick has shown glimpses throughout his first two seasons, but Phillip Lindsay has proven the more effective runner of the two and is more likely to split time in the backfield with free-agent acquisition Melvin Gordon.

While Freeman will likely still have a role in the Broncos’ offense, he’s now third on the depth chart behind two superior players. Touches will be at a premium for him in 2020.

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Daniel Comer is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Daniel, check out his archive and follow him @DanComer404.

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