Trying to pinpoint the exact value of a pitcher in fantasy baseball is one of the most underappreciated elements of the game. In a given year, we have to decide which pitchers are worth buying at a premium (because some always are), and which need to fall into the discounted range before we can take a chance (because some always will).
We continue to see that 2020 is not a normal year — not for the world, and not for fantasy baseball. Pitchers are no exception. There is, however, an interesting phenomenon that has unfolded as a result of the prolonged offseason. Amazingly, it’s largely directed at starting pitchers. The draft market for pitching has stabilized.
Every year, we have to decide if an innings limit will hurt the fantasy upside of a young starting pitcher. Not in 2020. We always have to consider the threat of an injury and thus downgrade players with risk. This time, we’re ready to downgrade anyone.
Approximately 32 starts for a pitcher can allow the statistics to balance out over the year. Now, we need players who can become dominant for a half-dozen games, at least. How we view pitchers in 2020 will largely differ from how we have viewed them in the past, but one common thread will always remain the same: unless we can get tremendously high upside, we want to limit risk.
Practice fast mock drafts with our fantasy baseball software 
Yu Darvish (SP – CHC)
The argument against Yu Darvish is as easy to make as the argument for Yu Darvish. That is, he was a complete disaster for half of 2019, and then he was an absolute beast in the other half. Which Darvish will we get in 2020? Over a full season, many were willing to take the chance that he would pitch to his averages yet again. In a 60-game season, the range of outcomes is too wide to pinpoint exactly where Darvish lands. In essence, if his first four starts of this year resemble the first half of last year, one-quarter of the season would already be gone before the possible turnaround. We can’t afford to wait in 2020.
Lucas Giolito (SP – CWS)
Lucas Giolito finally delivered on the hype that surrounded him since his days as a top prospect. His breakout 2019 campaign included an outstanding strikeout rate coupled with a sharp decline in walks. It was the perfect combination of a pitcher learning to use his weapons appropriately. The problem is that his numbers reach so far in the ideal direction that some regression has to be considered for 2020. But according to his ADP, it’s full speed ahead. Like the aforementioned Darvish, if Giolito had a full season ahead of him, we could make the case that he can work his way back to his stellar 2019 numbers. To ask for him to hold all of his statistics at an elite level in a short span is flat-out dangerous. Even if he keeps his strikeout rate high, will his walk rate remain low? What about his home-run-to-fly-ball-ratio that held from ’18 to ’19 despite the highest fly ball percentage of his career? For Giolito to deliver on his ADP, he’ll need to prevent any decline in production in roughly one dozen starts.
Aroldis Chapman (RP – NYY)
It’s easy to make the case against Aroldis Chapman now that he has tested positive for COVID-19, but the key is in his price before-and-after the news. Chapman was typically one of the top two closers off the board in most drafts thanks to his team’s win potential and his own talent level. The shortening of the season will also cause the gap to shrink between the top closers’ save totals and the league average, but Chapman missing any time now destroys his advantage. We also need to consider that the New York Yankees have a loaded bullpen and probably won’t rush Chapman back until he is needed. If New York is closing in on a playoff spot and can trust that Chapman will be at full strength toward the end of the regular season, it’s likely that his return — at least to the closer’s role — is delayed accordingly.
Lance Lynn (SP – TEX)
Maybe I’m stubborn, but I refuse to accept that a 32-year old pitcher who suddenly spiked all of his key statistics will hold them at a high level in his age-33 season. If I’m wrong, then Lance Lynn will continue to deliver a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, low home-run-to-fly-ball-ratio pitching in Texas during the summer months. The last part is actually the most important because, if Lynn’s numbers survive with all else being equal (it’s certainly possible that he breaks the trends), he will have to fight the dimensions of his new home ballpark. The Texas Rangers’ new stadium is small compared to other parks, and there is a chance that home run totals soar in the first few weeks similarly to the spike we saw with the new Yankee Stadium in early 2009. Conveniently, Lynn had the highest flyball rate of his eight-year career in 2019.
8 Hitters to Avoid in 2020 Fantasy Baseball Drafts
Roberto Osuna (RP – HOU)
Much of what was written about Aroldis Chapman applies to Roberto Osuna in that the higher-end closers may not separate themselves from the pack as dramatically as we have seen in the past. With Osuna, there might be an even further return to the mean. Despite his ERA staying under 3.00 for the fourth time in five years, his FIP was actually the highest of his career. There is also the controversy surrounding the Houston Astros acquiring Osuna, and it specifically carried into last year’s playoffs. While it is unlikely that anything more will come from this, it’s an added talking point for an organization that will be under the microscope in 2020. If Osuna becomes a distraction and is pitching poorly, his leash might be shorter than it would in a normal year.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP – TOR)
Over the last two seasons, Hyun-Jin Ryu’s numbers have been laughably good. He pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in 2018 and then, even with regression, held a 2.32 ERA throughout 2019. Again, “laughably good.” What’s most impressive is that he kept his ERA incredibly low while failing to strike out more than one-batter-per-inning. If all else remained in-place, it would be irresponsible to expect Ryu’s regression to hit one year later than anticipated. Of course, everything did not remain “in-place.” Ryu is now a member of the Toronto Blue Jays and will have to pitch in the American League East. Again, his pitiful strikeout rate leaves little room for error. Joining a new organization in a division that featured two-of-the-top-four highest-scoring offenses in the league will likely be too much for Ryu to handle.
Jesus Luzardo (SP – OAK)
This one pains me to write. Earlier this offseason, I made it a point to take Luzardo in most of my mock drafts. Then, when preparing my sleeper article, his name made the list. Simply put, I was buying into Luzardo, and I was doing so even more aggressively with news of a shortened season. What changed? Obviously, the positive COVID-19 diagnosis dealt an irreversible hit to Luzardo’s stock, but moving away from him actually runs deeper than just the missed time from the coronavirus. The new schedule brings different service time requirements than we see in a given year, and the Oakland Athletics would have been forced to either keep Luzardo off the roster for an extended period to gain another year of control. If the Athletics delay Luzardo’s season for four weeks, it would destroy any fantasy value in 2020. That decision might actually be easier to make if Luzardo’s recovery is taking longer than expected.
Kenley Jansen (RP – LAD)
Kenley Jansen might be one of the more recent players to be associated with the coronavirus, but he certainly isn’t the newest to get infected. It’s the opposite. Jansen is among the first to have recovered from the virus and returned to Summer Camp. The problem is that we cannot accurately project Jansen’s effectiveness following said recovery. The other issue is that Jansen had been on shaky ground in the closer’s role for quite some time, and his ERA — once well below 2.00 — has ballooned to the point where the Los Angeles Dodgers must be considering a change. The Dodgers clearly have their sights set on a championship, and they won’t hesitate to take out a struggling Jansen if it gets in the way of their plans. A potentially compromised physical status makes this even more of a possibility.
Prep for your draft with our award-winning fantasy baseball tools
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Beyond our fantasy baseball content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Cheat Sheet Creator – that allows you to combine rankings from 100+ experts into one cheat sheet – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball draft season.
Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.
