Many are willing to wait on the quarterback position, and for good reason. While in some cases it can make sense to let a quarterback fall to you, our writers are here to let you know of some signal-callers that you should avoid, even at their going rate.
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Q: Which quarterback are you least likely to draft at their current ranking?
Drew Brees NO): QB10 ECR
Brees is the easiest fade at his ECR (QB10) and ADP (QB9), as the days of him throwing for 4,500+ yards and 35 touchdowns are probably behind him. While there is no doubt the Saints have enough talent to make Brees a fantasy QB1, his diminishing arm strength has changed how their offense operates; they now tend to favor more routes underneath. Signing Emmanuel Sanders signals more of a commitment to a quick-passing game, which caps Brees’ ceiling. He has virtually no rushing floor either, making later-round targets like Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, and even Ryan Tannehill much more enticing. I am also betting on a big bounce-back season from Alvin Kamara, which could lead to even less touchdown upside than we have seen in the past from Brees. Unless I am playing in a league that carries a heavy penalty for interceptions, Bress is unlikely to find his way onto any of my rosters in 2020. Leave him at his ADP for someone who is more risk-averse and still believes the pre-2017 version of Brees is a reasonable outcome.
– Jason Kamlowsky (@JasonKamlowsky)
Drew Brees is currently 10th among all QBs in the latest ECR. He missed six games in 2019 due to a thumb injury, but still managed to record 27 TDs and four INTs across 11 games. Brees had an unsustainable 32.0 red-zone TD pass percentage and at 41 years old carries more risk than upside. Brees could also lose red-zone opportunities to gadget player Taysom Hill, whom Saints HC Sean Payton loves to utilize in key situations. Brees has the offensive weapons to produce another solid season, but the days of 4,000 yards and 30-plus TDs are most likely behind him. Only 7 percent of his passes went for 20 yards or longer, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. I don’t mind taking Brees as a borderline QB1, but at his current asking price, I would pass and take chances on Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Ben Roethlisberger, who are all ranked as the QB14 or lower.
– Brad Camara (@beerad30)
Josh Allen (BUF): QB7
I like Josh Allen as a football player; he is a big reason the Bills can think about finally winning the AFC East for the first time since 1995. He has a strong arm that allows him to make throws downfield and the ability to run the ball and earn fantasy points on the ground. Last year, he was the sixth-ranked fantasy quarterback despite throwing for only 3,089 yards and 20 touchdowns. The reason for that lofty fantasy ranking was his 510 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Despite that good fantasy season, Allen was a disappointment in the fantasy playoffs. From Weeks 14 to Week 16, he was the QB15 due to some tough matchups against the Ravens, at the Steelers, and at the Patriots. A tough schedule to close the season is also a problem this year. He squares off against the Chargers, 49ers, Steelers, Broncos, and Patriots from Weeks 12 to Week 16. Of those teams, the 49ers were the worst defense against fantasy quarterbacks last year at 10th. While it is difficult to tell if those rankings will hold up in 2020, all of those defenses are in demand in fantasy. The Chargers are the lowest-ranked fantasy defense at 13th in the ECR.
Allen is not quite good enough to just start every week regardless of the matchup. You are going to need some sort of contingency plan for that end-of-season schedule. That makes Allen an expensive buy as the seventh overall quarterback and the 72nd overall player. Matt Ryan is going four picks later, Carson Wentz is going 12 picks later, and Aaron Rodgers is going 25 picks later. I do not even think Allen is overrated as a fantasy quarterback; he should have some big games this year and may very well end up being the seventh-ranked fantasy quarterback. However, when I have to decide between Allen or taking a young wide receiver or running back in the eighth round, the young skill-position player is going to win. There are just so many good quarterbacks available later in the draft, so I have a hard time taking Allen at that spot.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
If it wasn’t for Josh Allen, I would be an outlier and go Kyler Murray. While I love his potential, it’s very optimistic to think he will explode in his second year after a very prosaic first one. Thankfully, I don’t need to go that route. Allen’s QB7 ADP makes this an easy answer for me. If there’s a candidate to become the next Mitchell Trubisky or Blake Bortles, it is indeed Josh Allen. Out of the 32 quarterbacks that started at least eight games in 2019, Allen’s 58.8% completion rate was second-worst to rookie Dwayne Haskins. This was a slight improvement compared to his rookie season, but most quarterbacks take a huge step forward as sophomores. Allen did not. Career-wise, Allen has only 6.6 yards per attempt with a 56.3% completion rate. This means he attempts shorter than average passes and completes them less often than most. Even Bortles and Trubisky have been better. Out of 50 quarterbacks who are currently starting, have just retired or are backups, Allen’s touchdowns to interception ratio is tied for sixth-worst. He’s tied with Bortles and Nick Mullens. He’s worse then Jameis Winston, Jeff Driskell, and Mason Rudolph.
The only thing helping Allen keep his job is the fact that Buffalo has a stellar defense, which has translated into wins. A similar situation as one Mr. Trubisky in Chicago. His rushing upside still entices people to draft Allen. Not only am I down on Allen in redraft leagues, but I fear his career as a starter may be in jeopardy if he doesn’t take a gigantic step forward as a passer. Teams do not have the same patience as they once did in the past. Allen will break many hearts in 2020. He will also devastate those who roster him in dynasty, similarly to those who thought Trubisky would turn things around. Allen is the biggest quarterback ADP trap in 2020.
– Marc Mathyk (@masterjune70)
Jared Goff (LAR): QB19 ECR
Rams QB Jared Goff is currently being drafted as a mid-tier QB2 based on his ECR of 19. While I don’t blame fantasy drafters for wanting steady production from the quarterback position, Goff offers almost no upside at his current ranking based on his inability to produce anything on the ground. He has thrown for over 4,600 yards the last two seasons. However, he regressed a bit last season, only throwing for 22 TDs compared to 32 in 2018. The passing TDs may normalize a bit back to the mean, but it’s unlikely he throws for more than 30 TDs in 2020. Now let’s look at his stats on the ground. Last season, Goff ran 33 times for 40 yards and two TDs. Those 1.2 yards per carry is not what I want from my fantasy quarterback. Compare that to Giants QB Daniel Jones, who is ranked similarly as a mid-tier QB2. Jones rushed 45 times for 279 yards and two TDs in just 13 games. That’s a whopping 6.2 yards per carry average. Jones could run the ball even more in 2020, leading to positive TD regression for the sophomore quarterback. Combine his lack of rushing ability with the departure of two key offensive players in Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks, and you won’t find me drafting Goff at his current ADP. I’m not saying I don’t trust Goff to perform at his ADP, but I’d rather take a shot on guys like Jones, Gardner Minshew, or even Joe Burrow, all of whom offer more upside based on their ability to tuck it and run.
– Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler)
Carson Wentz (PHI): QB9
Carson Wentz sits at QB9 in the expert consensus rankings after finishing as the QB9 a season ago. While he is capable of a repeat finish, he is currently ranked at or near his ceiling. Looking ahead of Wentz in last season’s quarterback finishes, we see a list of names that Wentz is unlikely to surpass. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson are strong candidates to outpace Wentz, while Josh Allen gained Stefon Diggs during the offseason. Further, Drew Brees is likely to overtake Wentz assuming a fully healthy season from the long-time Saints leader. There is a bevy of capable signal-callers ranked behind Wentz, providing little incentive to spend a mid-round pick on him during draft day.
Wentz has missed eight games over the past three seasons, and his receiving corps has also been unable to remain healthy. DeSean Jackson missed most of last season, and Alshon Jeffery is a candidate to start this season on the PUP list. Such a stint would mandate that Jeffery misses at least the first six weeks. While some will roll their eyes at the thought of Jeffery being a significant loss, he was targeted 7.3 times per game last season, so Wentz heavily relied on him whenever healthy enough to suit up. Fortunately, the Eagles added depth and high-end talent at the draft. The most notable addition is first-round burner Jalen Reagor. However, head coach Doug Pederson has stated that Reagor will work behind Jackson until he is ready to handle more responsibility. Therefore, if Wentz does stay healthy himself, he may be forced to work with a limited set of weapons once again. The loss of right guard Brandon Brooks is worrisome, but the Eagles did bring back veteran Jason Peters to fill the void. This is still a net negative for the offensive line and will impact the entire offense. Wentz is a talented quarterback, making his ECR of QB9 a logical one. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to significantly outperform this ranking, and the injury risk associated with him and his pass-catchers should deter drafters from targeting the Eagles’ franchise quarterback.
– Mark McWhirter (@mmcw19)
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