ThriveFantasy NBA Best Bets for July 31st, 2020
ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary-cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop-based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.
Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two-to-four props to win cash. Two correct selections and you win a 3.6x multiplier, three correct predictions earn you a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks give you an 11x multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount.
The Contest Lobby is where things really get interesting. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NBA involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness, just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.
Fantasy sports players, especially DFS players, have an edge when it comes to player prop betting. DFS players set lineups taking into account potential production when weighing their competing options. This is most pronounced for NBA and NFL DFS players. As such, diving into prop-based DFS contests is a smart way to further monetize your knowledge. While the Contest Lobby requires you to select 10 different props, you can still make a return even if you do not get every over/under prediction right.
Instead of providing my full lineup, we’ll instead highlight the top plays to consider. These are Contest Lobby props that are good enough that they would be strong considerations if offered in the prop lobby. Let’s dig in.
DeMar DeRozan over 27.5 points and rebounds (O 90 Points/U 110 Points)
DeMar DeRozan should have a monster outing in store for us later today. LaMarcus Aldridge is injured, and he won’t return this season. That makes the former All-Star guard the unquestioned leading option on offense. Aldridge’s absence vacates 15 shots per game, but more importantly, it increases the scoring burden that DeRozan must shoulder. There is a strong possibility that DeRozan goes over this number on points alone, but when we are allowed to add rebounds to the equation, some value shines through.
Unfortunately, the “juice” is also on the over for this prop. That makes finding plus-money selections a priority for at least two of your other three contest lobby tournament picks. DeRozan was not very good against Sacramento this season, but between the pace and the added responsibility, he seems like a very safe bet for at least a 22-5 line. However, that projection places him right under this number. Of course, that’s just his floor — he’s a good bet to exceed that number.
There is no value to be found when comparing ThriveFantasy’s line to that found at sportsbooks (the number is identical), so this prop comes down to how efficient one believes DeRozan will be today. I don’t doubt that he’ll have the usage rate and shot attempts to hit 25 or more points. An excellent athlete who has averaged 5.6 rebounds per game on the season, DeMar should net between four to seven rebounds against the Kings. He may not clear it by much, but the smart money is on the over for this prop at ThriveFantasy.
Russell Westbrook over 15.5 rebounds and assists (o 115 points/u 85 points)
My initial lean for this prop was on the over, but with Westbrook struggling in scrimmage action, and with his body likely still feeling the effects of COVID-19, we cannot assume that he will be at full strength. His disappointing stats on the season so far cement the under as the smart play here — he’s averaged just 15 combined rebounds and assists on the season thus far. I’m baffled that this line was set so high, as Westbrook has cleared the total in just two of his last 15 contests.
However, with James Harden expected to play more off-ball, taking the over could be a tournament-winning decision. Unlike ThriveFantasy’s Prop Lobby, where making correct predictions are prioritized, you must strike a balance between high probability picks and points awarded in the Contest Lobby. If you pick and hit on all favorites, you will lose to someone who was willing to take a high point total (or dog) or two. And as we can see from the points awarded, the juice is firmly on the under for this prop.
Since it’s set at 14.5 with the juice on the under at sportsbooks, the over is too risky despite my initial lean. Play the under and worry about maximizing point output elsewhere.