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Top Quarterback Values Based on Current ADP (2020 Fantasy Football)

Jul 3, 2020

Gardner Minshew is a late bargain following a quietly impressive rookie season.

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Average draft position, otherwise known as ADP, is a great tool for fantasy football players. It lets you know when you can expect players to be drafted so you can plan accordingly. Using our consensus ADP, we’ve asked our writers to provide quarterbacks that provide the best value based on where they are currently being drafted.

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Q: Which quarterback presents the best value at their current ADP?

Gardner Minshew II (JAC): ADP QB27
Gardner Minshew II quietly had a rookie season comparable to that of Kyler Murray, who is currently ranked at QB5 in the Expert Consensus, but the Jacksonville signal-caller is free in 1QB leagues and dirt cheap in 2QB/Superflex formats. With Cam Newton now off the market, Minshew has more job security and offers everything a fantasy manager would want in a QB. Minshew was a decently high-volume passer in 2019, averaging 33.6 passing attempts and 4.9 red-zone passes per game (both about the same as Murray). He was also impressive on the ground, tallying 4.8 carries per game (ranking fifth among QBs), 24.6 rushing yards per game (fifth), and just shy of one red-zone carry per game (10th). Despite those solid totals, he failed to score on the ground. While Minshew’s true completion percentage was unimpressive, he was excellent on play-action (71.6%, ranked sixth) and deep balls (45.1%, fifth). Minshew was not helped either by his receivers totaling 34 drops, the third-highest mark for any passer. With a mildly improved offense, a year of experience, and (hopefully) more use of play-action, Minshew has all the makings of a solid QB1 in fantasy.
– Mark Leipold (@LeipoldNFL)

The quarterback with a 98.8 QBR inside the pocket on throws of 20+ air yards in 2019, second only to Patrick Mahomes, is being drafted as QB27 based on FantasyPros ADP. Folks, it’s about time we start giving Gardner Minshew II the respect he deserves. As a rookie last season, the sixth-round pick out of Washington State impressed by finishing as QB19 in 14 games, going 6-6 as a starter for the lowly Jaguars. He threw for 3,271 yards and 21 TDs with only six INTs. He also showed ability as a runner, adding 344 yards on the ground in 67 rush attempts. With the departure of Nick Foles this offseason, Jacksonville’s coaching staff has given Minshew a huge vote of confidence. He’s the uncontested starting quarterback this season.

Additionally, the team added some weapons for Minshew to work with via free agency (Chris Thompson and Tyler Eifert) and the draft (Laviska Shenault Jr. and Collin Johnson). New Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has been impressed with what he’s seen from Minshew II so far. “He has shown a skillset where he can sit in a pocket, step up, make things happen outside the pocket,” Gruden said in late May, per NFL Network’s Michael Giardi. “He’s accurate, he’s tough and obviously he’s a great leader, so he’s got the intangibles you want in a quarterback.”

Handed the keys to the castle, Minshew has a golden opportunity to become the Jaguars’ quarterback of the future. His rushing ability will provide fantasy managers with a relatively high floor compared to other guys drafted around him, but it’s his underrated ability as a passer that can propel Minshew into QB1 territory in 2020. Consider this: Minshew (19.71 PPG) averaged just 0.7 fewer fantasy points than Kyler Murray (20.41 PPG) last season, yet Murray has a QB4 ADP. The current disconnect between Minshew’s fantasy value and ADP is astonishing.
– Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler)

Daniel Jones (NYG): ADP QB15
I am targeting Daniel Jones in drafts, as he could perform at a QB1 level for the price of a QB2. He is currently 15th among all QBs in the latest ECR and has an overall ADP of 112. The 23-year-old has a plethora of weapons to throw to in Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, Saquon Barkley, and Darius Slayton. He had an impressive rookie campaign, throwing for 3,027 yards and 24 touchdowns across 13 games. In three of those starts, Jones passed for at least 300 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions. The downside with Jones is the turnovers; he drove fantasy managers crazy by fumbling an NFL-high 18 times. However, he is working with college coach David Cutcliffe this offseason to correct the issue. The Giants drafted RT Andrew Thomas in the first round to improve the offensive line and brought informer Cowboys HC Jason Garrett to run the offense. Garrett should help develop Jones, as Dallas ranked first in total offense last season. If Jones can cut the turnovers and put it all together, he could finish a breakout season as a top-10 fantasy QB.
– Brad Camara (@beerad30)

Cam Newton (NE): ADP QB29
This one is low-hanging fruit, but Cam Newton represents the best value at his current ADP. Since entering the league in 2011, his fantasy finishes are QB3, QB4, QB3, QB17, QB1, QB17, QB2, QB12, and QB52. Newton has never finished below QB4 when playing 16 games. The risks are clear, as nobody knows what to expect from this season’s version of the Patriots. There is little in the way of guaranteed money owed to him, so Newton will have to demonstrate his health to stick on the roster. Having recovered from foot and shoulder injuries, he must beat out young QB Jarrett Stidham in order to become the heir-apparent to Tom Brady. Barring a health setback, Newton should be the favorite to start the Patriots’ season opener.

Brady finished as the QB12 last season after finishing as the QB14 in 2018 and QB3 in 2017, showing the Patriots’ ability to support fantasy success for signal-callers. Newton and Brady are vastly different players, however, and the Patriots are expected to lean on their running game and defense. Thus, Newton is unlikely to throw as often as Brady did. His fantasy success will, therefore, be tied heavily to his rushing ability. Newton has accumulated more than 100 carries in every healthy season, rushing for a minimum of 500 yards and five touchdowns each time. It is worth wondering whether he will be as heavily involved from a running perspective, but Newton’s extensive success as a rusher in the red zone provides the type of touchdown upside that cannot be found elsewhere at his current ADP. Presumptive goal-line back Sony Michel averaged 3.7 yards per carry last season, and that number nosedived in key situations. He averaged only 1.63 yards per carry in the red zone. While Michel did manage to score six times from inside the 10-yard line, Newton has averaged five rushing touchdowns from inside the 10 since 2015. He will directly threaten Michel’s goal-line role.

Examining his receiving weapons, Newton’s history of success with big-bodied receivers should bode well for N’Keal Harry’s progression. Stalwarts Julian Edelman and James White will provide him with the type of safety blanket he enjoyed with TE Greg Olsen in Carolina, and WR Mohamed Sanu represents a capable WR3. Although this is not the NFL’s most talented pass-catching corps, Newton is not completely devoid of weapons. Currently drafted as the QB29, Newton is an absolute steal at the moment. His ADP will rapidly climb now that he has found a new home, but Newton should be viewed as an upside QB2 for fantasy players wondering where to slot the former MVP in their rankings.
– Mark McWhirter (@mmcw19)

Teddy Bridgewater (CAR): ADP QB26
After making a name for himself as a constant Captain Checkdown Charlie, Teddy Bridgewater finally has the supporting cast, coaching staff, and disastrous defense to help him land on the fantasy radar for arguably the first time in his career. Gone are Bridgewater’s days from Minnesota and New Orleans where he was forced to manage the offense while playing with a lead, largely attributed to their respective defenses. Favorable scoreboards will be few and far between for the Carolina Panthers in rookie head coach Matt Rhule’s new era with the franchise in 2020. Luckily for Bridgewater, he will reunite with Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady, as the two spent the 2018 season together in New Orleans.

While playing with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas is nothing to scoff at, I’m intrigued by Bridgewater’s cast of characters in Carolina. Bridgewater will undoubtedly benefit from dinking and dunking to Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel. Robby Anderson’s reunion with Matt Rhule — Anderson played for Rhule at Temple — will be fun to watch, as Bridgewater has never played with a speedy vertical threat of Anderson’s caliber. The question remains: Is Bridgewater capable of landing the occasional shot downfield to Anderson? Bridgewater averaged only 1.7 deep ball attempts (passes that travel 20+ yards in the air) across nine games last year. In order to unlock a much-needed component to Bridgewater’s game, he’ll have to improve here, as he ranked 37th among NFL quarterbacks with 15 deep ball attempts. Staying in the NFC South should only help Bridgewater’s comfort as he transitions to his third team in four years.

While it won’t help matters for Bridgewater in real-life football this fall, Carolina’s egregious defense (31st in points allowed in 2019) will be a sight to behold for Bridgewater’s fantasy value. No one said it had to be pretty, but last time I checked, garbage-time points count just the same for fantasy purposes. I fully expect the Panthers to find themselves in catch-up-mode more often than not this year, forcing Bridgewater to keep the ball in the air throughout the second half. After spending two years in the division, Bridgewater is certainly no stranger to the NFC South shootout. With Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all sharing the division, Bridgewater and the Panthers will have no choice but to keep the foot on the gas for 60 minutes each week. Given the plethora of weapons at Bridgewater’s disposal, their talents will make his numbers look a lot more appealing than they probably should. Give me all the shootouts I can get at his modest QB26 price tag. Bridgewater is a must-have for Superflex leagues while also serving as a valuable late-round dart throw in 1QB leagues.
– Rob Searles (@RobBob17)

Jared Goff (LAR): ADP QB19
Jared Goff tied Jameis Winston for an NFL-high 626 passing attempts last season, and the Rams have lessened the load in their backfield by cutting ties with Todd Gurley this offseason. Goff finished third in passing yards (4,638), but his fantasy relevance suffered from 16 interceptions that tied for fourth-most. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods remain popular options to receive another 100-plus targets each, in addition to tight ends Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee’s predicted 100-plus targets between the two of them. The Rams now have a rotation of three running backs to assist Goff, and after two consecutive seasons of 4,600-plus yards, the former No. 1 pick is a free selection in 12-team leagues at the age of 25. Goff combined for 60 touchdown passes in 2017 and 2018, but only posted 22 in 2019. Goff nevertheless finished as a QB13 (263.52). If he had thrown 30 touchdowns, Goff would’ve finished as the QB8 in 2019. Goff is worth drafting, even if he’s your QB2, because of his yardage upside. After his lowest touchdown total as a full-time starter, he’s in store for a progression in scores, coming most likely on fewer pass attempts.
– Vaughn Dalzell (@VaughnDalzell)

Drew Brees (NO): ADP QB9
Although I wanted to pick someone with a depressed ADP like Daniel Jones or Ben Roethlisberger, I decided to stick with the best QB of the 2010s: Drew Brees. In the 10 games last season where he had at least six attempts, thereby excluding a Week 2 contest in which he injured his thumb after five passes, Brees averaged 294.1 yards per game and threw 27 touchdowns (with one rushing score) against just three interceptions. He passed at an adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) of 8.8, good for fifth in the league. And his offense may have even improved with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders. As the 10th-ranked QB in FantasyPros’ consensus rankings, with an ADP hovering at 87 overall, Brees offers elite upside and immense reliability at a fraction of the cost. I’d be ecstatic to grab him after stocking up on RBs and WRs early and often.
– Jared Lese (@JaredL_FF)

Derek Carr (LV): ADP QB27
Let’s go back in time, shall we? In 2016, Derek Carr finished as the 10th-best quarterback in fantasy football. Why? His top wide receivers, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, played all 16 games at a high level, combining for 172 receptions, 2,156 yards, and 13 touchdowns. With these guys on the field, Carr chucked the ball 560 times for 3,937 yards and 28 touchdowns. The following season, the same two wideouts missed time and under-produced, totaling just 112 receptions for 1,396 yards and 10 touchdowns. Additionally, each player missed two regular-season games. Sure, Jared Cook entered the equation, but Carr still attempted only 515 attempts in the same number of games (15) as 2016. He finished as the 19th overall QB in fantasy. As for 2018? Forget about it. Cooper went down with an injury, the Jordy Nelson experiment flamed out, and Jalen Richard led the Raiders in receptions with just 68. Yikes. It doesn’t even matter that Carr threw the ball 553 times. He had no one to go to. Carr finished as the 18th overall QB in fantasy.

Enter 2019 and not much had changed-except for breakout tight end Darren Waller. But without Waller’s 90 receptions for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns, Carr would’ve been forced to rely on his next most reliable receivers: rookie Hunter Renfrow (49-605-4) and veteran Tyrell Williams (42-651-6). You can see where I’m going with this… and so could the Raiders’ decision-makers. Head coach Jon Gruden and General Manager Mike Mayock did all they could to support their struggling quarterback, selecting three wide receivers in the first three rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft: first-round rookie sensation Henry Ruggs III, third-round standout Lynn Bowden Jr., and third-round powerhouse Bryan Edwards. On top of those monster acquisitions, the Raiders have verbally committed to adding running back Josh Jacobs to the team’s passing attack. Talk about an upgrade to Carr’s weaponry.

Carr has been irrelevant in fantasy football for the past three years, but he’s still only 29 years old with plenty to prove. I love the additions his team has made in the offseason, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sneaks into QB1 territory in 2020. If I have the space on my roster in redraft leagues, I’m grabbing Carr as a sleeper QB2 with QB1 upside. And because he’s the 26th-ranked QB, you can basically get him for free.
– Jim Colombo (@widerightnblue)

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): ADP QB20
As the QB23 in our expert consensus rankings, Jimmy Garoppolo is virtually free in drafts right now. This makes sense to a degree. Garoppolo was more or less a “game manager” as San Francisco leaned on a wildly efficient running game throughout the 2019 season. Jimmy G aired it out when he needed to, however, totaling three four-TD performances when the Niners found themselves in shootouts. We can project San Francisco’s defensive and rushing efficiency to dip somewhat this season, as the heights it reached in the Super Bowl run are almost impossible to replicate on a year-to-year basis. This would give Garoppolo more passing volume as he opens the year facing the Cardinals, Jets, Giants, Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams. Aided by the elite play-calling of offensive guru Kyle Shanahan, Garoppolo checks all the boxes of an ideal late-round quarterback selection.
– Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma)

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): ADP QB16
There is a disconnect when it comes to Roethlisberger’s 2019 season and what that means for his current fantasy value. If we go back to the 2018 season, Big Ben was a fantasy star. He led the league with 5,129 passing yards and threw 34 touchdowns. His 2019 season was filled with promise to start, but he crashed and burned in Week 1, posting a 65.6 QB rating in a 33-3 loss to the New England Patriots. He followed that up with a 67.4 QB rating in limited action in Week 2 at home against the Seattle Seahawks, and his season was done after 62 pass attempts due to an elbow injury.

A lot of people think he lost a step last year because of how bad he looked in those two games. Keep in mind, however, that New England allowed a 62.8 QB rating to all opponents faced last year. We can’t make any conclusions based on last season’s two-game sample size. His career, on the other hand, is not a small sample size. Roethlisberger has been a top-13 fantasy quarterback five times from 2013-2018, and finished three of the seasons in the top 10. The only year outside of the top 13 was 2015, and he was still the 20th-ranked quarterback despite missing four games due to injury.

I am not about to pretend that Roethlisberger is a sure thing. Coming off a serious elbow injury, the 38-year-old could be on the downside of his career and could break down early in 2020. However, all indications are that rehab on his elbow has gone well. Roethlisberger has a great chance to outperform his 124 ADP if he stays healthy. He is so cheap right now that nobody is going to lose their fantasy draft rolling the dice on him in the 13th round. As a second quarterback, one of the most prolific passers in NFL history with something to prove this year is a tremendous bargain.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)

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