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10 Players You’ll Regret Drafting (Fantasy Football)

Aug 27, 2020

Mark Andrews may be too touchdown-dependent to trust in 2020

We’re now approaching what’s arguably the biggest draft weekend of the year. If you haven’t done your research yet, now’s the time! Draft day for many is one of the most fun days of the season, but the decisions you make then can either have you rejoicing or disappointed over the next few months. If you’re a sane, rational human, you probably prefer the former … that’s why you’re reading this after all.

To prevent you from falling into the depths of despair in the months that lie ahead, our featured analysts have taken the time to identify which players might destroy your season. Take note that these guys will still be useful fantasy options, but they just aren’t worth their lofty draft price. Read on to see who the experts think are the most overvalued early-round selections.

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Q. Who is one player ranked inside the top 50 in half-PPR ADP that fantasy managers will regret drafting the most and why?

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL): ADP – 35th Overall | TE3
“Andrews is a guy that won’t be on any of my redraft teams since he was pretty touchdown-dependent in 2019, posting 10 touchdowns to go along with a respectable 64 catches for 852 yards. Everyone is anticipating some touchdown regression for Lamar Jackson, which will undoubtedly flow down to Andrews. Plus, I expect Marquise Brown to be significantly more involved in the offense this season. Andrews will cost you a late third or early fourth-round pick in redraft and you’d have to pass on guys with massive upside like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor, or Calvin Ridley, among others. I don’t think Andrews’ production will be vastly superior to a tight end that you can get a few rounds later and I’m not willing to let some potential league winners pass me by to get him.”
– Donald Gibson (FantasyPros)

Mark Andrews put up reasonable numbers in 2019 when you look at his overall total. However, a closer examination of his output game-by-game shows a mixture of matchup reliance, touchdown dependency, and fantasy points left on the field. Such is the nature of an RPO-styled offense for tight ends — feast and famine. There’s no reason to target Andrews specifically in your draft over the busier skill positions. Zach Ertz is well-established and a better choice with the scheme in Philadelphia.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack)

Le’Veon Bell (RB – NYJ): ADP – 45th Overall | RB21
“My tone has changed for the worse on Bell’s fantasy outlook. I haven’t been high on him by any means, but to me, it seems like he’s been hungry and ready for a bounce-back campaign after averaging 3.2 yards per attempt on 245 carries. That still may be the case, but I don’t trust Adam Gase or the Jets. In typical Gase fashion, he is now talking up ‘The Geriatric One’ himself — Frank Gore. Don’t forget that Gase and Bell’s relationship hasn’t exactly been rosy during their respective tenures in the green and white. I’ll touch Bell with a 10-foot pole, but not with one much shorter.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

“For me personally, I don’t want any part of Le’Veon Bell this season. This is not because I don’t like him as a player, but it’s simply because I don’t trust Adam Gase. Even at his lowered ADP price tag, there are too many question marks surrounding Bell’s workload on a low-scoring offense that I’m fine letting someone else take him and deal with the potential week-in and week-out volatility.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

A.J. Brown (WR – TEN): ADP – 36th Overall | WR15
“The draft investment of a top-15 WR for Brown comes with too much risk due to his expected regression and boom-or-bust fantasy production. His final stats displayed a rookie breakout season by reaching 1,000 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on just 52 receptions and 84 targets. However, digging deeper into his production should make fantasy managers avoid Brown at his current draft capital. 10 of his 16 games featured him catching fewer than four passes while seeing more than eight targets just once. Brown averaged a massive 20.2 yards per reception and 12.5 yards per target in his rookie campaign. That type of superior per-target production is not feasible. Furthermore, touchdowns are so unpredictable, but that doesn’t stop fantasy managers from falling in love with his highly unsustainable 9.5 percent touchdown rate, which was greater than 80% of the league. The Titans’ offense is ground-heavy and I don’t think we will see the volume that Brown needs to improve upon his rookie numbers. He might win you a few weeks, but he could also disappear as he did in the team’s two playoff games, where he produced a total of 10 targets that yielded five catches for 64 yards. To satisfy his WR15 ADP, Brown would have to continue his super-elite efficiency and Ryan Tannehill will have to match his career season. These two improbable results push me to instead invest in better WR options in Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, and Robert Woods at that draft capital.”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)

Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC): ADP – 37th Overall | RB17
“I can’t get on board with Fournette at his current ADP. In 15 games last season, Fournette finished as the RB20 (half PPR) or worse in nine of them. He finished as the RB10 or worse in 12 of 15. That’s not a lot of upside for a guy being drafted as a top-20 back. On paper, Fournette’s rushing efficiency was at a career-best mark of 4.3 YPC in 2019. However, if you remove just four of his rushes, his per-tote average drops to 3.4. He was also woefully inadequate as a receiver last year. Of the 72 players to garner at least 72 targets, only Tarik Cohen (4.4) averaged fewer yards per target than Fournette’s 5.2. Those targets are going to dwindle and with the Jags likely to be playing from behind quite often, the carries could follow suit. Just like the Jaguars, you could be looking to trade Fournette in the near future if you draft him.”
– Elisha Twerski (numberFire)

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): ADP – 44th Overall | WR18
“It’s weird saying Sutton because I know he’s a good football player, but why is he being drafted ahead of where he finished last year? He saw plenty of targets (125) and finished as the WR19, yet his asking price is WR18? Did everyone miss when the Broncos went out and snagged Melvin Gordon in free agency, then drafted the best wide receiver in the draft (Jerry Jeudy) in the first round, and another wide receiver (K.J. Hamler) in the second round? Let’s not pretend they’re going to be a pass-first team with Vic Fangio as the head coach. Sutton is a gifted player, but the opportunity just isn’t there. You’re drafting him at his ceiling.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Mark Ingram (RB – BAL): ADP – 46th Overall | RB22
“Regret is such a strong word, but I certainly have concerns valuing Ingram as a top-50 overall player. While he posted more than 1,000 rushing yards last season, his 15 total touchdowns were a big reason why he finished as a top-10 fantasy RB, depending on league scoring. Touchdowns are one of the more volatile aspects of fantasy and while J.K. Dobbins is probably not going to take over this backfield as a rookie, he could end up with as many, if not more touches than Ingram when all is said and done. The likelihood of fewer opportunities for Ingram to have the ball in his hands is enough reason alone to make sure you don’t pull the trigger too soon on draft day.”
– Mark Ross (Athlon Sports)

Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN): ADP – 38th Overall | RB18
“Last year, Gordon had only one game where he rushed for over 100 yards and he averaged 3.8 yards per carry over 12 games. Leaving Los Angeles, he now enters a different Denver altitude with not much time to adjust. The Broncos already have a local boy in Phillip Lindsay who has rushed for over 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. Gordon is now in a timeshare and you can pick up Lindsay four rounds later. He’s too much of a gamble in the third or fourth round unless you are in desperate need of a running back.”
– Todd D Clark (The Fantasy Fix)

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV): ADP – 16th Overall | RB9
“If we compile a list of RBs with the potential to disappoint in 2020, Jacobs certainly isn’t as obvious of a choice as others such as Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, and Le’Veon Bell. That said, I don’t share Jacobs’ optimism for a significantly increased passing-game role (60 catches is his goal) as the Raiders’ moves to re-sign Jalen Richard, draft Lynn Bowden Jr. (and make the ex-receiver a running back), and sign third-down back Theo Riddick recently suggest otherwise. While I have Jacobs projected for the seventh-most touches in 2020, I only have him projected to score the 16th-most half-PPR fantasy points and that makes him a little too rich for my taste at his current RB9 ADP.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)

Chris Carson (RB – SEA): ADP – 34th Overall | RB16
“Coming up with a bust inside the top 50 in ADP is extremely difficult. I really think that barring injury or COVID-related missed games, everyone should perform at or around their current draft cost. However, the one player that I haven’t drafted at all in well over 100 drafts is Carson. He has had two great seasons, but let’s not forget, he was a late seventh round (7.31) draft pick, he’s on the last year of his rookie deal, and is coming off a hip injury in a limited-contact offseason. He’s had a history of fumbling issues that thus far hasn’t really affected his playing time, but Seattle signed one of the most reliable backs in the league in Carlos Hyde. Carson has missed nine of 11 practices thus far due to very valid personal issues. He should be fine to go Week 1, but there’s just enough there to keep me from drafting him near his current ADP.”
– Kevin Wheeler (Draftwize)

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): ADP – 47th Overall | QB3
“I understand the reasons for taking Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes early, but that second tier of quarterbacks is so deep that it is a waste to draft Prescott at his current ADP of 47. Fantasy owners could grab a legitimate WR2, like Keenan Allen, D.J. Chark, or Robert Woods, all of which are going after Prescott. Owners could wait an extra 40 picks for a player like Carson Wentz, who is not much of a drop-off from Prescott, if at all. ”
– Zach Brunner (FlurrySports)

Thank you to all the experts for naming their players that you’ll regret drafting. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our latest podcast episode below.

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