8 Post-Hype Sleepers (Fantasy Football)The players analyzed in this article were either a bust last year or underwhelmed in a previous season and never recovered. However, there’s optimism that all of these guys have a good shot at heavily outproducing their discounted draft cost. Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, and Mark Ingram were all athletes that fell short of expectations in 2018 and became huge sources of value the next year. Let’s take a look at which forgotten players are primed to step up in 2020.
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Q1. What RB that was overhyped as a sleeper in past seasons, and is falling in draft rankings this season, are you targeting the most?
Kerryon Johnson (DET)
“This time last year we were all salivating at the prospect of Johnson getting a full workload. He dealt with an injury of his own that more or less ended his season five games into it. I know that the Lions drafted D’Andre Swift, but word is that he will be more of the pass-catching back to start. Whenever Johnson has had at least 12 carries in a game, he averages 15 fantasy points. I think he leads the backfield in carries as well as the all-important goal-line touches to give you a nice return on a late-round draft pick.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
“My answer would have been Darrell Henderson if not for his injury. Instead, another training camp injury situation could allow Kerryon Johnson to be an excellent post-hype sleeper. D’Andre Swift’s lingering leg injury could cost him snaps to start the season and Detroit opens up the year with advantageous matchups in four of the first six weeks. This could give Johnson a much better chance of taking the job and running with it than his ADP would suggest.”
– Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)
Ronald Jones (TB)
“Jones was the only running back on the Buccaneers’ roster last year to average more than 3.3 yards per carry (he averaged 4.2), and though Arians didn’t remain consistent with the touches he’d give, we did see Jones finish the year strong, totaling 183 rushing yards and a touchdown on 25 carries and then chipping in with another five receptions for 42 yards over the final two games. It seems like it’s a popular thing to rip him being a “bad receiver,” but I’m not even sure where that comes from. Yards per route run is often a good measuring stick of future success. There were 64 running backs who ran at least 100 routes in 2019. The top five in yards per route run were: Austin Ekeler, DeAndre Washington, Dalvin Cook, James White, and ... Ronald Jones. Stop saying he’s a bad receiver. He’s not announced as the clear starter, I’m buying in at his current RB31 cost.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Nyheim Hines (IND)
“I’m looking for Hines to have a big season in year three. He was just 42nd in running back scoring last year, seeing a drop in production from his rookie season. He is ready for a rebound year with Philip Rivers as his starting quarterback. Rivers is the king of dumping the ball off to the running back, so Hines is setup for career numbers as the third-down back in this offense.”
– Jeff Paur (RTSports)
Duke Johnson (HOU)
“People have been pushing for Johnson to get more playing time for years, drafting him too early in hopes that he would get the work he deserves. This season, however, Duke Johnson is only behind an injury-prone and washed David Johnson on the depth chart and his ADP is as low as ever. The Texans are a very good offense — thanks to Deshaun Watson — that lacks weapons (or at least weapons that can stay healthy). Duke Johnson is expected to receive playing time in two-back sets and as a pass-catcher while having league-winning potential if David Johnson were to get injured again.”
– Jason Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)
Q2. What WR that was overhyped as a sleeper in past seasons, and is falling in draft rankings this season, are you targeting the most?
Anthony Miller (CHI)
“Miller for me. He’s falling outside the top-50 receivers (current ADP WR55), which is odd considering he has a clear path to 100 targets in the Bears’ offense. With Taylor Gabriel out of the lineup last year, Miller posted 29 receptions, 370 yards, and two touchdowns in seven games. Over a full 16 games, that would’ve amounted to Emmanuel Sanders‘ numbers from 2019, who finished as the WR30. Add in some natural progression to his career and role in the offense with potentially better quarterback play and you have yourself a breakout candidate.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
“Chicago’s 2018 second-round pick has struggled to consistently make an impact at the NFL level, but when Taylor Gabriel went down with an injury last year, we saw the type of fantasy potential Anthony Miller can bring. He averaged seven targets and was the WR23 from Week 13 on and it’s possible that he occupies that type of a role in his third pro season. Miller is free in drafts and could be peppered with targets out of the slot if Nick Foles holds onto the starting job.”
– Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)
Dede Westbrook (JAC)
“Only 14 wide receivers in the NFL have at least 101 targets in each of the last two seasons. The majority of these guys are going in the first few rounds. Almost all of them are going inside the top 30 at the position, then there’s Westbrook who can be had with basically your last pick. That’s just 17 targets fewer than D.J. Chark had last season. I get that Chark was better with them and the team drafted Laviska Shenault, but I’m willing to spend a late-round pick on a guy that the quarterback and OC obviously like enough to give more than six targets a game to for two straight years.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Brandin Cooks (HOU)
“Cooks is the only answer here. Consistently drafted as a WR1/2 in years past, he always delivered on his ADP. Now, after one down season, Cooks is being slept on. He is no stranger to joining a new team and has always excelled despite having to learn a new offense. He’s also no stranger to playing with stud QBs, which he again will be able to do in Houston. Deshaun Watson ranked eighth and ninth in True Throw Value (which can be found at BRotoFantasy.com) in 2018 and 2019, respectively, meaning that the targets that WRs see from him are very valuable. Cooks is going to see many of those targets.”
– Jason Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)
Tre’Quan Smith (NO)
“I really like Smith as a guy to take late in drafts. He has not lived up to the hype to start his career, but has 10 touchdowns on just 69 targets in two seasons, so he has shown flashes of his potential. I think he is set up for a more consistent role this year and has a real chance to finally have that breakout season.”
– Jeff Paur (RTSports)
Thank you to the experts above for naming their post-hype sleepers. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and check out our latest podcast below for more fantasy advice.
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