We’ve finally reached the point of the season where we can gauge one of the most important elements of fantasy baseball: sustainability. In a given year, we always question how “sustainable” a hot or cold start is. This is because we have months after said start for us to see a particular decision unfold. In 2020, we have weeks.

Thankfully, the time before our important decision — and, in this article in which we are purposely buying high or selling low, the decision’s “importance” is heightened — has given us the opportunity to create a data set. Since we are past the midpoint of the fantasy regular season and approaching the true middle of Major League’s Baseball season, we can now better answer the question, “Will this player continue on this pace?”

Below is a list of players to buy at a premium or sell at a discount, as well as some suggested offers and targets. To avoid suggesting like-player-for-like-player, pitchers were often paired with hitters and vice versa.

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Hitters to Buy

DJ LeMahieu (1B/2B/3B – NYY)
It’s quite a risk to pay a premium for a player who just landed on the injured list, but this might be the best opportunity to buy DJ LeMahieu. His value is still through-the-roof as he became a legitimate threat to hit .400 in this shortened season, but most fantasy owners would be looking to offload LeMahieu now for an immediate return.

If your team can survive without LeMahieu’s services but needs batting average, take the opposite approach from most and try to add the versatile hitter.

Players to offer: Aaron Civale

Ian Happ (2B/3B/OF – CHC)
We should not be surprised by what Ian Happ is doing. As Opening Day approached, I wrote an article about deep-league sleepers where Happ fit the perfect mold. He was a highly-touted prospect that appears to have taken a while to develop. So be it. He’s here now, and he’s thriving.

As of this writing, Happ is in the top-20 of qualified hitters for offensive WAR, walk rate, on-base percentage, and wOBA. He shouldn’t be overly expensive, but he’s worth it to increase the price in order to get a deal done.

Players to offer: Kenta Maeda

Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE)
It feels like Jose Ramirez is always fighting for recognition. There’s a chance that this lack of appreciation can diminish his price slightly. It’s unlikely, as the reality is that Ramirez continues to produce consistently and across all categories. That’s what we want in a season filled with uncertainty.

Basically every one of Ramirez’s statistics is in-line with his general season production, and he typically finishes as one of the top fantasy hitters in a given year. He’s already doing well, but he still hasn’t reached his ceiling.

Players to offer: Frankie Montas

Pitchers to Buy

Merrill Kelly (SP – ARI)
It’s almost laughable what Merrill Kelly has done through the first third of the 2020 season. He has an ERA well under 2.00 but a FIP at 3.77. Normally, this would scream for regression, but the reality is that Kelly is not necessarily deviating from his own numbers. His strikeout rate is almost identical to last year’s, but his FIP is actually a big improvement from where he finished in 2019.

There’s certainly danger in adding Kelly after his hot start, but he could be a great find for the playoff push.

Players to offer: Starling Marte

Spencer Turnbull (SP – DET)
He won’t even be one of the two most exciting starting pitchers for the Detroit Tigers by the time this article is published, but Spencer Turnbull has earned our attention.

Through four starts, Turnbull’s ERA and FIP are both under 3.00, while his strikeout rate is aligned with his career average. The simple answer is that he might have found something, and it starts with his ability to keep the ball in the park. Turnbull has not allowed a home run on the season. His team’s name value should help avoid a massive price — people will generally associate the Detroit Tigers with a low win potential — but we can’t ignore how well Turnbull is pitching.

Players to offer: Luke Voit

Kyle Hendricks (SP – CHC)
I considered listing Kyle Hendricks in each of the prior installments of this column, but it always felt like we could get more confirmation that he has returned to the form we saw years ago. Now, there’s no denying that Hendricks should remain a viable fantasy option through the remainder of 2020, and we should be aggressive in buying him. What’s most amazing is that Hendricks is striking out batters at a worse rate than any prior season except his rookie year, but almost everything else is an improvement. His FIP is at a career-best 2.66.

Players to offer: Anthony Rendon

Hitters to Sell

David Dahl (OF – COL)
It might already be too late to sell David Dahl, as he was recently scratched from a game against the Houston Astros. Still, Dahl is talented enough — and plays in the hitter-haven of Colorado — to carry some value. Good thing, too, because his stock is sinking fast. I’ve been one of the biggest believers in Dahl, but we simply don’t have the time to wait for a turnaround.

Players to target: Danny Duffy

Adalberto Mondesi (SS – KC)
While I had been advocating for Dahl as a sleeper in 2020, I was targeting Adalberto Mondesi with an early-round pick a few months ago. This appears to have been a terrible mistake. Mondesi does have five steals — and that’s why we draft him — but his on-base percentage is below .250. Forget about batting average; this is unacceptably bad.

Draft picks as high as Mondesi don’t typically fall to the point where an outright release is likely, so there will still be buyers for the foreseeable future.

Players to target: Nathan Eovaldi

Cody Bellinger (OF – LAD)
Two weeks ago, it was Christian Yelich. Last week, it was Jose Altuve. This week’s “Big Name to Sell-Low” is Cody Bellinger. Like the other two, Bellinger can absolutely turn his season around and carry a fantasy team. Also, like the other two, we can get a nice return from an owner looking for a big name. As we continue to see, the 2020 season is too similar to a sprint for us to fall in love for the long term.

Bellinger is not helping right now, and it’s possible that he can be swapped directly for someone who will contribute immediately.

Players to offer: Max Scherzer

Pitchers to Sell

Cristian Javier (SP – HOU)
In this week’s “Players to Buy-High” section, I highlighted those who have found a way to produce even without staggering statistics. This has actually been the method-of-operation for Cristian Javier as he worked his way through the Minor Leagues. He doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal, but his numbers are great, regardless. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found a way to translate that to Major League Baseball on a consistent basis. Can he get there? Absolutely. But his FIP is quite high compared to his ERA, and the strikeout rate is too low for us to expect an easy positive correction.

Players to target: Bryan Reynolds, Jurickson Profar

Brady Singer (SP – KC)
Brady Singer comes with a much stronger pedigree than the aforementioned Javier, but his production has been just as mediocre. Through five starts, Singer has yet to complete six innings of work or allow fewer than two runs. The Kansas City Royals are sitting at the bottom of the American League Central, so wins remain scarce for any of their starting pitchers. The future may be bright for Singer, but the home stretch of the 2020 season likely isn’t.

Players to target: Adam Eaton

Jon Lester (SP – CHC)
So much of the trade value is tied to name recognition, and we have to play this card if we want to move Jon Lester. It’s arguably the reason why he was drafted as highly and frequently as he was in 2020, and his current numbers appear to justify it. That’s if we only look at his 2.74 ERA.

Lester’s FIP is 4.38, where his xFIP is a career-high 5.35. His strikeout rate is also the worst of his 14-year career, and it looks like an implosion is imminent. Move him now before it’s too late.

Players to target: Marcus Semien

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.