There is a large thirteen-game slate on tap for this fine Friday. With a third of the season behind us, we have decent samples of 2020 data to view, but we will still keep the focus mostly on 2019 and 2020 for the purposes of this article. Let’s talk about some plays for tonight!

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Value Pitchers to Target

Houser: There isn’t a ton of upside with Houser, which is a great reason not to play him. However, I cannot sit here and tell you that $8,400 is a fair price tag. Houser has a 24.6% strikeout rate since 2019 and a league-average 8.4% walk rate. The best part is the matchup against the Pirates in PNC Park. Pittsburgh has scored a paltry 1.45 DraftKings points per plate appearance this year, and they are quite possibly the lightest-hitting team in the league (they are second lowest in slugging percentage at .326). The limiting factor is the contact ability of the Pirates’ hitters — as a team, they have struck out just 8.3 times per nine innings. This is a very safe play, but not really a 30-plus point threat.

Heaney: It’s been a few mediocre-to-bad starts in a row for Heaney, as he’s given up nine earned runs in his last two appearances. Let other people worry about that, though, because when we look at his 28% strikeout rate and his 7.6% walk rate, we see a pitcher who should be priced above $8,000 against the Athletics tonight. The A’s are one of the strikeout-heaviest teams in the league, as they’re getting punched out 10.3 times per nine innings this year.

Kuhl: Quietly, Chad Kuhl has been awesome this year. He has racked up a 33.3% strikeout rate, a 7.4% walk rate, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 3.70 xFIP. The Brewers are also one of the best matchups you can ask for, as they have scored just 1.54 DraftKings points per plate appearance while striking out 9.8 times per nine innings. Pirates pitchers are perpetual underdogs, so I wouldn’t feel great about a seven innings performance with a win here, but Kuhl has a lot of whiff upside tonight.

Plutko: A lot of you probably tried this last week only for it go terribly. I don’t really plan to ever play a guy with a 16.6% strikeout rate, but if you really need to dig down in salary, Plutko could pay off. The good news here is that he throws tons of strikes and has a tiny 5.2% walk rate over the last two seasons. Tigers don’t do a lot of damage offensively, scoring just 1.65 DraftKings points per plate appearance this year with a 10.5 K/9 rate. I’ll do my best to find the extra $600 for Kuhl if I’m down in this salary range, but Plutko is worth mentioning.

Catcher/First Base

d’Arnaud: He’s got a pretty terrible matchup against Nola, but if he’s hitting third again, I’m not sure how you don’t click on him. He’s been pretty much a free square at these low prices with that prime lineup spot, but I think hitting five spots higher than the rest of the league’s catchers makes up for it.

Nunez: Brewer has been just awful against right-handed batters with a .380 wOBA allowed with a 1.94 WHIP and a 17% strikeout rate. Nunez has a strong .335 xwOBA since 2019 and makes for a nice cheap play at first base with huge upside.

Flores: While Robbie Ray can be a tough guy to hit with his 30% strikeout rate, Flores counters that nicely with a tiny 11% strikeout rate of his own. And when hitters do make contact on Ray, it’s solid contact, as Ray has surrendered a .347 wOBA and 1.9 HR/9 to righties since 2019. Flores is red hot, but his price hasn’t budged, and this is another strong matchup for him.

Second Base

Marte: The price tag is a little too cheap for Marte, who is by no means living up to the expectations he gave himself with that monstrous 2019 season, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still a very strong hitter. He is still making tons of contact (12% strikeout rate) and continues to rack up the base hits (.343 batting average). The downside is that he is not hitting for power (one homer, .441 slugging percentage), and he is taking no walks (2.8% walk rate). However, Logan Webb is not a good pitcher (.396 wOBA allowed, 4.28 xFIP). There isn’t much home run upside here, especially in this ballpark, but Marte brings a strong floor at $4,400.

Odor: The quintessential 0/5 with five strikeouts risk, Odor will never be considered a “safe” play. However, the matchup here is great, as Margevicius has been really awful over the last two seasons. He has a .365 xwOBA allowed with a 1.9 HR/9 rate given up. Odor can still hit the ball out of the ballpark, and he offers some steals upside as well, so there is big upside for a small price tag tonight.

Wong: DeSclafani has given up 2.03 HR/9 to lefties over the last two seasons with a .342 wOBA allowed and a 1.47 WHIP. Wong has that elusive power/speed combination, and he should be hitting lead-off tonight, making him an absolutely stunning play at $3,500.

Third Base

Rendon: The Angels should make tons of contact tonight, as Fiers comes into this start with a weak 16% strikeout rate. This isn’t really a “value” price tag, but I still think it’s a touch too cheap for Rendon in this spot, given Fiers’ home runs problems (1.8 HR/9 to righties) and lack of strikeout ability.

Seager: He continues to put up numbers this year, as he earned another home run last night. Allard does a fantastic job at limiting the long ball (just a 0.63 HR/9 rate since last year — that’s nearly unheard of in today’s game), but he struggles in everything else. Allard has a 1.52 WHIP, a 5.12 xFIP, and a 17.7% strikeout rate since 2019. Seager should be able to put the bat on the ball tonight and pay off this very low salary, which is $300 below his season average.

Moran: I like Houser tonight, but there is no denying that he has struggled with lefties over the last two seasons. He has given up a .358 wOBA with 1.4 HR/9 and a 1.63 WHIP to lefties in 58 innings since 2019. Moran is a bit of a boom-or-bust play at this point with his .208 batting average and .472 slugging percentage (six dingers), but I like his chances of popping one into the right-field seats in PNC Park tonight.

Shortstop

Lindor: He probably has the best matchup on the board tonight against Fulmer, who has really, really struggled since returning to the big leagues this year. Fulmer has given up a 2.04 WHIP, a .478 xwOBA, and 5.4 HR/9 in his small sample of innings. The Indians have the highest run projection on the board (as of 8:30 in the morning, mind you), and Lindor is right in the heart of it all.

Tatis: Why would someone averaging 13.6 DraftKings per game be priced at just $5,200? I don’t get it. Tatis has averaged 3.2 DraftKings points per plate appearance, which is second to only Juan Soto (who has just 50 plate appearances to show). McCullers is very talented, yes, but when he isn’t striking people out, he’s usually walking them or giving up hard contact. Tatis probably has the highest upside in the league at this point, and you can get him for a non-elite price tag.

Crawford: We talked about how much contact can be made off Allard, so I love Crawford’s chances for a steal and a couple of runs scored tonight at the top of the Mariners’ order.

Outfield

Yelich: Kuhl has been tough on everybody this year, but I can’t get over Yelich at $5,100 in a ballpark that treats left-handed power hitters pretty well. The Pirates bullpen is in complete shambles as well, and Yelich should get a couple of at-bats against them. That makes the tough starting pitcher matchup easier to overcome.

Gallo: If I’m betting on someone to homer tonight, it’s Gallo. He may have the most raw power in the league, and Margevicius gives up long balls in bunches. We’ve already mentioned this, but lefties have mashed 2.4 HR/9 off of Margevicius since 2019. To make things even sweeter, his strikeout rate against lefties is just 12.3%, which goes a long way to offset Gallo’s 37% strikeout rate.

Canha: I do not understand this price tag. Canha has been awesome this year with a .279/.413/.465 triple-slash line, three homers, two steals, and a huge 15% walk rate. Heaney is a pretty tough customer, but this price is just too low.

Choo: See the write-up on Gallo; no need to keep repeating myself here. Play the Rangers lefties!

Happ: I don’t think the home run train keeps chugging for Happ, but he makes up for the tougher matchup by finding himself in the lead-off role for the Cubs. His walk rate has skyrocketed to 16.7% this year, and that’s taken him to a .438 OBP. He’s added six homers and a steal, so it’s been a very good year for Happ. This is far from a great spot for him against the ground-ball inducing Keuchel, but I’ll always be interested in a lead-off hitter at $3,400.

Studs Worth Their Salary

• Walker Buehler (SP – LAD) $10,200: It hasn’t been the greatest 2020 season for Buehler, but he is finally pushing his pitch count toward 90, and I really think tonight is the night he busts through. The Rockies are in that tough spot of leaving Coors Field and immediately facing an ace pitcher. Last year, the Rockies averaged 4.4 runs in road games immediately following a home series — that’s half a run less than the league average. Buehler has one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in the league with a 28.4% strikeout rate to go with his 5.6% walk rate. I’m all over Buehler at this price as a huge home favorite.
• Mike Trout (OF – LAA) $6,200: Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Trout is worth this huge salary. Fiers has given up 1.84 HR/9 to righties over the last two seasons and just does not strike anybody out with a 15% strikeout rate. There are no super expensive pitchers tonight, so I think you can find the cash for Trout.
• Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE) $5,400: The matchup against Michael Fulmer is one of the best in the league, and J-Ram can score you points in so many different ways. He’s either hit two homers or stolen two bases four different times this year. The floor/ceiling combination is nearly unmatched, and Fulmer is just a bad pitcher. He did not appear in the Majors last year, but he is off to a rousing start in 2020 with a 6.24 xFIP, a 2.04 WHIP, and a lowly 14.6% strikeout rate.
• Cody Bellinger (OF – LAD) $5,300: While Jon Gray is a good enough pitcher to avoid stacking against, the price on Bellinger just seems a few hundred too low. He has not been great this year, but he is showing signs of life with homers in back-to-back games and a strong 1.139 OPS over his last seven.

Notable Players to Fade

• Jon Lester (SP – CHC) $9,500: I think this one is probably too obvious to even warrant a spot here, but if you like money, you shouldn’t be paying $9,500 for a guy with a 20.9% strikeout rate.
• Max Fried (SP – ATL) $8,900: Fried has some of the best numbers in the league right now with a 0.897 WHIP and a 1.24 ERA over his first 29 innings of 2020. However, tonight he goes up against a brutal Phillies lineup that is scoring 1.92 DraftKings points per plate appearance. Against Aaron Nola and with Acuna and Albies still out of the lineup, Fried is going to be an underdog here, and he really does not bring a ton of strikeout upside with his 24.8% strikeout rate over the last two seasons. I’ll wait for a better day to go with Fried.
• J.D. Martinez (OF – BOS) $5,800: Usually J.D. against a lefty would be in the “studs worth their salary” portion, but I don’t believe he’s really worth $5,800 here. Means is far from a gas can, and Martinez really has not shown much power this year. While we should never draw conclusions from a 24 game sample and it would surprise nobody if Martinez hit 10 homers in his next 10 games, I’ll pass at this exorbitant price point.

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