DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy: Monday (8/3)
From several teams having COVID-19 outbreaks to the Yoenis Céspedes no-show yesterday, it has been a busy and newsworthy first week-plus of the season. That said, our focus is on DFS plays and making some money after a four-month gap of virtually no sports. Tonight’s MLB featured slate brings us eight games and we are looking at value plays, studs, and fades.
Reach out to me on Twitter @RyanWhitfieldNE if you have any questions.
|Lewis Thorpe (MIN)||vs. PIT||$8,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Mike Soroka (ATL)||vs. NYM||$9,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Chris Paddack (SD)||vs. LAD||$7,600||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Thorpe does not come without risk tonight, but I like this matchup for him. The Pirates are batting .177 (worst in the league) and are in the bottom third in runs scored. For his part, Thorpe has pitched 4 2/3 innings this season and has a 1.07 WHIP and a 0.00 ERA. While this is a spot start for a guy with 14 career appearances, this is a good opportunity for a strong ROI.
Soroka is off to a nice start following a strong 2019 and is primed for another strong outing tonight. While he is the fourth most expensive pitcher going tonight, he can still be a value play with just 8 games on the featured slate. Soroka has a .159 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP for the season. In 2019, he had a 2.68 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and held opposing hitters to just a .236 batting average. The Mets have the fourth-best batting average in the league but rank in the bottom half in terms of runs scored.
Paddack has been great this season with a 1.64 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and 19.1 FPPG. Though the matchup will be difficult, Paddack’s production at this price is worth a look.
|Willson Contreras (CHC)||vs. KC||$4,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Daniel Murphy (COL)||vs. SF||$4,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Jose Abreu (CWS)||@ MIL||$4,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
Contreras is slashing .333/.419/.630 and is facing a Danny Duffy and his 5.79 ERA. Murphy is 8-for-22 this season with a .986 OPS. Tonight he faces Johnny Cueto who has a 5.87 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. Abreu has been better in his last seven games batting .300, slugging .500., and averaging 8.85 FPPG in that stretch. He faces Brett Anderson in his season debut tonight.
|Whit Merrifield (KC)||@ CHC||$4,800||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|DJ LeMahieu (NYY)||vs. PHI||$4,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
Merrifield is slashing .317/.364/.610, has three home runs, and has driven in nine runs this season. However, he faces Alec Mills who has followed up a nice 2019 with a solid 2020 start. LeMahieu has been held hitless just once this season and is batting .400. He will face Jake Arrieta who is making his season debut but has seen both his ERA and WHIP get progressively worse the last four seasons.
|Justin Turner (LAD)||@ SD||$4,500||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Manny Machado (SD)||vs. LAD||$4,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
|Kyle Seager (SEA)||vs. OAK||$4,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Turner will face a tough matchup against Chris Paddack, but Turner is having a better season than it seems at first blush. Outside of one bad three-game hitless stretch, Turner has hit in every game and is batting .392. I’ll take that for a guy with seven others priced in front of him tonight. Machado is a high-risk play, but his power and boom or bust potential while facing Walker Buehler who is off to a less than desirable start makes him worth consideration. Seager sat Sunday so that’s worth watching today as lineups come out. That said, he is averaging 9.0 FPPG, is batting .286, has driven in 10 runs, and is facing Frankie Montas.
|Dansby Swanson (ATL)||vs. NYM||$4,600||⭐⭐||Medium|
|Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)||vs. LAD||$5,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Jake deGrom is a tough matchup for anyone, but Swanson is slashing .368/.400/.605 and has driven in 11 runs and tonight he is just the seventh most expensive shortstop. Despite batting just .275 this year, but six of his 11 hits have been for extra bases and he has nine RBI.
|Bryce Harper (PHI)||@ NYY||$5,000||⭐⭐⭐||High|
|Nelson Cruz (MIN)||vs. PIT||$4,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Tommy Pham (SD)||vs. LAD||$4,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Marcell Ozuna (ATL)||vs. NYM||$4,200||⭐⭐||Medium|
|Max Kepler (MIN)||vs. PIT||$4,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Harper has just nine at-bats on the season, and Cole is not an ideal matchup but has an OBP of .462 and three RBI. Cruz is batting .324, has three home runs, and 12 RBI. Pham is hitting .306, has scored seven runs, and has driven in seven runs. As I noted with Swanson, this is not an ideal matchup, but Ozuna has three home runs, an OPS. of 1.115, and has scored 10.2 FPPG. Kepler is a boom or bust player who has posted 14-plus fantasy points as many times as he has posted 0 this season (three each). That said, he’s a low-cost option against an average matchup.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Gerrit Cole (NYY) $11,000: Cole is facing a Phillies team coming off of an unusual start to the season and he has been good through the start of his Yankees career.
- Jacob deGrom (NYM) $11,600: While I identified some Braves players for tonight, the fact remains that playing a guy with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.55 WHIP is never a bad idea.
- Evan Longoria (SF) $4,900: Longoria is slashing .429/.444/.768 through 14 at-bats this season.
- Trevor Story (COL) $5,900: Story has a good matchup and is batting .345, has four home runs, and is averaging 13.8 FPPG.
- Mike Yastrzemski (SF) $5,900: Yastrzemski is 12-of-35 with a 1.157 OPS and is averaging 11.8 FPPG.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Christian Yelich (MIL) $6,000: Yelich is just 1-for-27 this season and is the most expensive outfielder tonight.
- Marcus Semien (OAK) $5,200: The second most expensive shortstop tonight is slashing .205/.225/.256.
- Matt Chapman (OAK) $5,100: Chapman is batting sub .200, averaging 5.4 FPPG, and is the second most expensive third baseman tonight.
- Max Muncy (LAD) $5,200: Muncy has really only produced three quality fantasy performances so far this season, he faces a Chris Paddack tonight, and he’s the third most expensive first baseman.
- Gary Sanchez (NYY) ($4,800): Sanchez has the third-highest catcher salary and his batting average is sub .100 while producing 2.6 FPPG.