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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy: Sunday (8/2)

Aug 2, 2020

Charlie Blackmon is always a worthwhile DFS investment against a righty at Coors Field.

While the first week of MLB has been absolute chaos in terms of the COVID situation, the majority of MLB teams are still playing. We get seven games for this Sunday slate, and it’ll be interesting to see how things shake out with such poor pitching options available. With that in mind, let’s kick things off with those weak arms.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Yonny Chirinos (TB) @BAL $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jon Lester (CHC) vs. PIT $9,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Kyle Wright (ATL) vs. NYM $6,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Chirinos is probably my favorite pitcher on this slate. He’s got a 1.07 WHIP since last season and gets to face one of the worst lineups in baseball. In addition, Tampa Bay enters this matchup as a -190 favorite. Lester stinks, but the Pirates are way worse. They struggle even more against lefties, which makes Lester intriguing as a -200 favorite. As for Wright, who knows? He gets to face an inconsistent Mets offense at just $6,200, so it might be a good idea to ride him at SP2 and get all of those Coors Field bats in the lineup.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Daniel Murphy (COL) vs. SD $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jose Abreu (CWS) @KC $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Wilson Contreras (CHC) vs. PIT $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
Contreras is undoubtedly the best catcher option on this slate against lefty opener Steven Brault, who will likely be followed by Chad Kuhl. At first base, Murphy should be in a good spot with his low K rate and high BABIP against Zach Davies, who has a 16.8% K rate for his career. As for Abreu, he’s just too cheap in a good matchup against Jakob Junis.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Ryan McMahon (COL) vs. SD $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Mike Brosseau (TB) @ BAL $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Luis Arraez (MIN) vs. CLE $3,300 ⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Let’s keep the Rockies bats rolling with McMahon. He has an OPS approaching .900 at home since 2018 and should bat sixth with the platoon advantage in his favor. Brosseau also gets the platoon advantage against Tommy Milone, and that alone is big news with him batting second against a southpaw on Saturday. Arraez, a career .350 hitter against righties, is just too cheap despite a difficult matchup against Aaron Civale.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nolan Arenado (COL) vs. SD $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jose Ramirez (CLE) @ MIN $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Yandy Diaz (TB) @ BAL $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

 
If we like the Rockies, we have to love Arenado. The superstar is one of the best hitters in the game when at home. Ramirez has a .474 OBP this season and is one of the majors’ best power-speed players. He’s also better from the right side and is more likely to steal. Diaz is one of my favorite value plays of the day, likely batting atop the Rays lineup against Milone.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Javier Baez (CHC) vs. PIT $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Francisco Lindor (CLE) at MIN $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Willy Adames (TB) @ TB $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Baez is one of the best plays of the day. Since 2018, he’s got a .613 SLG and .975 OPS against lefties. Lindor is also affordable considering he’s a strong hitter against righties and lefties. Ramirez and Lindor make for a solid two-man stack against Minnesota in what looks to be a bullpen day. Adames is just another piece to the Tampa stack against Milone, who has a 5.74 ERA and 1.37 WHIP since 2016.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Charlie Blackmon (COL) vs. SD $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
David Dahl (COL) vs. SD $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) vs. NYM $4,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Hunter Renfroe (TB) @ BAL $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Luis Robert (CWS) @ KC $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
Blackmon and Dahl kill right-handed pitching and are even better at Coors Field. In fact, they both have an OPS approaching 1.100 against righties at home since 2017. Ozuna, who homered for the third time this season on Saturday, gets to face a lefty in rookie David Peterson. Renfroe also killed southpaws to the tune of a .575 SLG last season. Robert is coming off a monster game on Saturday, and it’s hard to understand how such a talented player is this cheap.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Charlie Blackmon, COL ($5,600): Blackmon is possibly the best play on the board. He’s got a .909 OPS against righties and a 1.066 OPS at home since 2018.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL ($5,500): Acuna just hit his first dinger of the season on Saturday and could continue that success against a weak lefty like Peterson.
  • Javier Baez, CHC ($4,900): I already explained why Baez is the best shortstop play out there. But, if you needed more incentive, Brault has a career 4.84 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.
  • Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4,700): J-Ram is absolutely raking right now, and he could succeed against Minnesota’s bullpen.
  • Luis Robert/Eloy Jimenez, CWS ($3,600/$3,700): These young White Sox are just too cheap. The duo scored 31 fantasy points apiece on Saturday, and it’s very possible they could keep that momentum rolling here.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($5,000): Schwarber typically struggles mightily against lefties, and that makes him a tough sell at such a huge price tag.
  • Miguel Sano, MIN ($4,900): Sano has been striking out like crazy this season and he could falter against a talented righty like Aaron Civale.
  • Mitch Garver, MIN ($4,600): Garver is in the same boat as Sano. It’s just a better idea to go cheap at catcher and fill out your lineup with Tampa and Colorado bats.
  • Aaron Civale, CLE ($9,600): Civale went off in his first start and is actually the highest-priced player on the board. That makes him a fade for me facing the best offense in baseball.
  • Zach Davies, SD ($7,900): This is literally one of the worst plays/prices I’ve ever seen. I probably wouldn’t even play Davies if he was $3,000. Just stack against him with Colorado projected for seven runs.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tyler, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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