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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Monday (8/31)

Aug 31, 2020

Dragic has been a stud since re-entering Miami’s starting lineup

We’re deep into the playoffs at this point, with one first-round game and one second-round matchup on this slate. It happens to be a Game 6 for the Oklahoma City-Houston matchup and a Game 1 meeting between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat. That means the pickings are slim, but we’ll do our best to provide a good mixture of studs and value plays to help fill your lineups!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Chris Paul (OKC) vs. HOU $8,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. MIL $6,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Eric Bledsoe (MIL) vs. MIA $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • CP3 is one of the best plays on the board. He’s averaging nearly 40 DK points per game in eight meetings with the Rockets and that should be his floor in a must-win game for the Thunder
  • Dragic has been starting for the Heat recently, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in eight-straight games.
  • Bledsoe has been inconsistent but a lot of that is because of his return from COVID. His minutes appear to be on the uptick and that’s big news with him averaging 31 DraftKings points per game in the regular season. If he gets ruled out, George Hill is a fantastic pivot.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Harden (HOU) vs. OKC $11,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jimmy Butler (MIA) vs. MIL $8,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Andre Iguodala (MIA) vs. MIL $3,500 ⭐⭐⭐ High

__________

  • Harden is averaging about 60 DK points per game in the bubble and is almost impossible to fade on a two-game slate.
  • Against a team like the Bucks, Butler should be playing huge minutes and carrying this offense. That’s all you can ask for from an $8,100 player who’s averaging over 41 DK points per game.
  • Iguodala is risky, but this is why the Heat signed him. He’s played at least 25 minutes in all four playoff games thus far and he should provide plenty of value if he keeps doing that here.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Danilo Gallinari (OKC) vs. HOU $6,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Robert Covington (HOU) vs. OKC $5,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Luguentz Dort (OKC) vs. HOU $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • Gallinari is coming off a nightmare Game 5 but that has lowered his price to this $6,000 tag. That’s way too low for a guy who averaged 30 DK points per game in the regular season and averaged over 33 fantasy points in the first three games of this series.
  • Dort obviously can’t shoot, but he’s still playing hard and getting plenty of minutes opposing James Harden. It’s super rare to see a $4,100 player average 30 minutes and 12 shots a game, making him a great choice.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) vs. MIA $11,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Danuel House (HOU) vs. OKC $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jae Crowder (MIA) vs. MIL $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • Giannis scored at least 57 DK points in all five playoff games thus far and is really difficult to fade as well.
  • House is averaging 23 fantasy points per game across 31.4 minutes of action over his last 15 fixtures. He’s been even better recently, averaging 28 DK points per game across 37 minutes over his last four fixtures.
  • Crowder is averaging 23 DK points per game over his last 13 outings and that makes him a great option at just $4,500.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bam Adebayo (MIA) vs. MIL $7,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Brook Lopez (MIL) vs. MIA $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
P.J. Tucker (HOU) vs. OKC $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • Adebayo is the clear-cut top option at center, averaging over 40 DK points per game.
  • Lopez is way too good to be sitting at just $5,300. That looks even better when you consider that he averaged over 29 DraftKings points per game in three meetings with the Heat this season.
  • Tucker is regularly playing 40 minutes a game and should walk into 5X value with that in his favor. He’s actually scored at least 19 fantasy points in every game of this series and that’s a great floor for a $4,300 player.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,400: We already discussed how Giannis has scored at least 57 DK points in every game of the Orlando series and that’s pretty much on par with his season average. What’s scary is that he did that in that in just 30 minutes and could play even more here.
  • James Harden (HOU) $11.300: Harden averaged 60 DK points per game in the regular season and is another tough fade in an elimination game.
  • Chris Paul (OKC) $8,200: Paul should be hungry with his team’s back against the wall. Look for him to play 40-plus minutes and flirt with 50 DK points.
  • Goran Dragic (MIA) $6,600: Dragic has been a stud since re-entering the starting lineup. He should be at $7,500 with his aforementioned production and he’ll need to keep doing that against Milwaukee.
  • Brook Lopez (MIL) $5,300: Lopez is by no means a stud but he’s too valuable to be sitting at $5,300. Not only did he average nearly 30 DK points per game against Miami in the regular season, he also averaged over 26 DK points per game in the regular season. In addition, he’s scored at least 25 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, making him one of the best values out there.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Russell Westbrook (HOU) $9,700: Westbrook had just 27 DK points in his debut and it’s hard to trust him coming off of injury at $9,700. Not to mention, he has to compete with Harden for touches.
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $8,100: While we did say we like Butler earlier on, it’s tough to squeeze him in when you need to get Giannis and Harden into your build. Facing an elite Bucks defense makes it even tougher.
  • Khris Middleton (MIL) $7,900: Middleton really struggled in the last series and that could continue against an elite Miami defense.
  • Eric Gordon (HOU) $6,100: With Russell Westbrook back, Gordon is hard to trust. That means he has to deal with James Harden and Westbrook handling the ball, limiting Gordon’s opportunities and usage.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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