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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Saturday (8/29)

Aug 29, 2020

The main value of the day is Anfernee Simons, who is expected to enter the starting lineup in place of Damian Lillard.

Welcome back to the restart (for the second time!) of the NBA playoffs inside of the Orlando bubble. Today’s slate features a three-game main slate that has the Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks tipping off, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets in the mid-day game, and then closes out with the Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets contest. Ensure you’re keeping an eye on injury statuses and lineup news.

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Point Guard

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Anfernee Simons (POR) @ LAL $4,000 ⭐⭐ LOW
Markelle Fultz (ORL) @. MIL $5,100 ⭐⭐ LOW

 
The main value of the day is Anfernee Simons, who is expected to enter the starting lineup in place of Damian Lillard. Simons was able to hit value in two of three games against the Lakers in the playoffs and that was on limited playing time and awful shooting splits. If Simon can get some positive regression in that area, he could present a massive value at the point guard spot, although he will likely be chalky. Markelle Fultz is lowkey playing arguably the best ball of his career thus far as he’s managed to reach value in three out of four playoff contests. Fultz is coming off a strong 35.25-point performance and continues to draw starts at the point guard spot.

Shooting Guard

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Dennis Schroder (OKC) @ HOU $6,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ MEDIUM
C.J. McCollum (POR) @ LAL $8,100 ⭐⭐⭐ MEDIUM

 
Dennis Schroder has really begun to hit his stride since returning to the bubble — he’s reached value in his last two contests and has totaled 46.25 and 36.75 DraftKings points in either game. Not only has he played well in general, but he’s scored 29 and 30 real-life points in those games and has played a steady amount of minutes (31-plus). C.J. McCollum is going to be a chalky option undoubtedly, but with good reason — everything falls on his shoulders tonight for the Trail Blazers with Dame out. Expect to see a massive usage rate for McCollum. That is something he could do a lot of damage with.

Small Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Lu Dort (OKC) @ HOU $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ LOW
Eric Gordon (HOU) vs. OKC $6,100 ⭐⭐⭐ HIGH

 
Lu Dort has quietly become a very solid contributor for the Thunder since his return to the court. In his last two playoff games, Dort has played 35 and 36 minutes and has reached value in both contests. While Dort hasn’t shot well (30% in three straight games), he’s managed to make up for it with ancillary stats. Eric Gordon’s floor and ceiling both take a hit tonight with Russell Westbrook returning to the court, but he’s been as steady as a rock in this series — he’s scored between 30.75 and 33.75 points in four straight games against the Thunder and has taken 15-plus shots in each game, topping 20-plus twice over that same time frame.

Power Forward

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Carmelo Anthony (POR) @ LAL $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐ LOW
James Ennis III (ORL) vs. MIL $4,400 LOW

 

As you can imagine, many of the Trail Blazers players are going to make the value list tonight, but mostly their scoring options as the onus will fall on them to try to best replace Dame’s contributions. Melo has been inconsistent in the playoffs but has displayed a large ceiling with two performances topping 36-plus DraftKings points — expect a heavy workload for the former superstar. James Ennis is as boring as a DFS option as there is, but he’s remained near value or slightly above in nearly every playoff game and continues to chip in defensively and on the boards. He’s not a scorer, but Ennis’ cheap price tag isn’t tough to hit, either.

Center

Name (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Hassan Whiteside (POR) @ LAL $4,900 ⭐⭐ MEDIUM
Steven Adams (OKC) vs. HOU $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ LOW

 
Hassan Whiteside will likely see more of the ball and experience more scoring opportunities with Dame sidelined, particularly if he remains in the starting lineup. Whiteside’s reduced price tag lowers his risk, but the big-man is always a risky proposition when it comes to DFS purposes. Steven Adams still has yet to explode against the Rockets but has proven to be a steady contributor routinely hovering right below value. He’s a risky option, but he has the potential to dominate the much smaller P.J. Tucker and his price has dropped by $400.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • C.J. McCollum, POR ($8,100): As I mentioned above, McCollum is about to see as much run as he’ll ever receive in a playoff game. He doesn’t even need to shoot well to reach value, as he is likely to receive a massive usage rate regardless of his shooting splits.
  • Anthony Davis, LAL ($10,500): AD is coming off a weak game in which he only scored 37.75 DraftKings points, but that was in only 18 minutes of playing time. AD is listed as probable for today’s contest and has more than proven the Trail Blazers simply have no answer for his dominance.
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,300): Giannis’ price tag continues to climb, yet it doesn’t matter — he’s simply proven to be unstoppable for the Magic. He’s topped 64-plus DraftKings points in three of his last four games and the final one landed at 59.0 points. Fire Giannis up with the chance of finishing the Magic off today.
  • Jusuf Nurkic, POR ($8,600): If you expect McCollum to do well, then Nurkic should also be in play! While he hasn’t played all that well, Nurk is coming off a strong 43.75-point performance and has a slightly reduced price tag from the start of the series. Expect a lot to fall on his shoulders tonight.
  • Nikola Vucevic, ORL ($9,200): The Magic simply haven’t looked the same since the first game of the series, but it hasn’t been Vuce’s fault — he’s been dominant throughout. The Serbian big man is coming off a spectacular performance in which he just scored 63.25 DraftKings points.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,800): Middleton has struggled in this series — he’s reached value only once and it was in his latest contest. He hasn’t shot the ball well, either, eclipsing over 40% only once in this series.
  • Russell Westbrook, HOU ($9,900): Listing Russ here is tough because he’s so dominant, but he hasn’t played in a while and hasn’t played once in this series — it’s best to avoid this situation for now.
  • Robert Covington, HOU ($5,700): Covington has struggled in this series, as he hasn’t reached value in any game yet. The addition of Westbrook will only lead to even less of a usage rate for RoCo.
  • Evan Fournier, ORL ($5,400): Fournier has performed decently in terms of DFS, but he’s been relatively brutal for the Magic throughout this series. The two-guard has shot miserably from the floor — he’s hit less than 40% of his FG’s in three of four games.
  • Danilo Gallinari, OKC ($6,300): Listing Gallo here is tough because he has performed decently in the playoffs — he’s reached value in two of his four contests. But I expect the Rockets to tighten up defensively with Westbrook back on the court, and Gallo hasn’t shot well (33% and 30%) in his last two contests.

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Sosa Kremenjas is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Sosa, check out his archive and follow him @QBsMVP.

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