DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Thursday (8/6)
Today’s schedule of games features a six-game slate that tips-off at 1:30 p.m. EST. Both the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers are operating on a back-to-back, and that is something to keep in mind when building out your lineups. Also, with lock coming in early, ensure your late-round selections are likely to play.
|Aaron Holiday (IND)||@ PHO||$4,800||⭐⭐||LOW|
|Ricky Rubio (PHO)||vs. IND||$6,600||⭐⭐⭐||MEDIUM|
|Monte Morris (DEN)||vs. POR||$4,700||⭐⭐⭐||LOW|
The intrigue surrounding Aaron Holiday mostly depends on the status of teammate Malcolm Brogdon, who is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s contest. Holiday has performed admirably since the bubble kicked off, as he’s reached a value in two out of his three contests while coming up just short in the last one.
On the other end of the floor is the veteran in Ricky Rubio, who has played tremendously in the bubble. The Phoenix Suns are closing in on a potential playoff spot, which could propel them to play well — Rubio’s matchup will also ease up considerably if Brogdon is sidelined.
Monte Morris’ matchup is a great one — he opposes the 27th-ranked defense in the Portland Trail Blazers. They also rank 12th in pace. Make sure to keep an eye out on the status of Jamal Murray — he was listed as questionable for last night’s contest.
|Tyler Herro (MIA)||@ MIL||$3,600||⭐⭐||LOW|
|Gary Trent Jr. (POR)||@ DEN||$4,400||⭐⭐||LOW|
|Duncan Robinson (MIA)||@ MIL||$5,000||⭐⭐||MEDIUM|
Jimmy Butler has already been ruled out and Goran Dragic may miss the contest today for the Miami Heat — that places both Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson on this value list for the shooting guard spot. The matchup won’t be easy as the Milwaukee Bucks are the first-ranked defense, but they do rank first in pace — which should create a lot of offensive opportunities for Miami, and they may rest a lot of their best players with nothing left to play for. Herro is particularly intriguing at his low price tag. Gary Trent Jr. has exceeded 34-plus minutes of playing time in his past two contests — that’s a lot of potential damage for a guy at his price tag.
|Cam Johnson (PHO)||@ MIA||$4,900||⭐⭐⭐||MEDIUM|
|Justin Holiday (IND)||@ PHO||$4,100||⭐⭐⭐||LOW|
Like Trent, Cam Johnson has played a ton of minutes for the Suns in his past two contests — he’s registered 40 and 38 minutes of playing time respectively. While he struggled to shoot in his last contest, Johnson has been a productive player and has shown the ability to contribute in a multitude of ways. A lot of Holiday’s intrigue will depend on the Pacers’ injury situation — his ceiling is outstandingly low, but he’s a flier and a shot at some good minutes. There isn’t a player hotter than Michael Porter Jr. right now — he’s registered back-to-back contests with 53-plus points and over 30-real-life points in each game. Not to mention, his matchup is tremendous.
|Jerami Grant (DEN)||vs. POR||$4,300||⭐⭐⭐⭐||LOW|
|Danuel House Jr. (HOU)||vs. LAL||$4,900||⭐⭐||MEDIUM|
|Kyle Kuzma (LAL)||@ HOU||$4,500||⭐⭐⭐||MEDIUM|
Jerami Grant — like MPJ — is scheduled for a great matchup and is coming off a strong 30.5-point performance. In addition, he’s played in 34 and 35 minutes in his past two games, making him a solid target while the Nuggets continue to deal with injuries. Russell Westbrook is currently listed as questionable, and if he misses the contest today, you’ll want some exposure to the Houston Rockets. House presents a nice opportunity to buy low on a player who plays a ton of minutes and will receive an increased usage rate if Westbrook is ultimately sidelined. Kyle Kuzma will oppose the Rockets by lining up on the other end of the court. The pace of the Lakers and Rockets contest is highly intriguing, and while the Lakers don’t have anything to play for, Kuzma could be a guy that receives a few extra minutes on the court. He’s struggled in his last two contests.
|Kelly Olynyk (MIA)||@ MIL||$4,800||⭐⭐||LOW|
|P.J. Tucker (HOU)||vs. LAL||$4,200||⭐⭐||MEDIUM|
|Jeff Green (HOU)||vs. LAL||$3,900||⭐⭐||MEDIUM|
The center position doesn’t offer a ton of value plays, but Olynyk is certainly one of them — he’s likely going to be a chalky option today. Olynyk has crossed 30-plus DraftKings points in his past three contests and scored 41.0 points in his latest game as a starter. He’s expected to start again tonight, and while the matchup won’t be easy, he’s got a shot to crush value. Neither of P.J. Tucker nor Jeff Green possesses the greatest ceiling — Tucker is a better shot to play a ton of extended minutes, while Green has been a better per-minute producer. Both players will receive a boost if Westbrook misses today’s contest.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($8,700): While Kawhi has yet to reach a 50-point performance in the bubble, this price is just far too cheap. Leonard hasn’t shot the ball particularly well, but he’s got the potential to explode on any given night, and at this price point, you have to feel comfortable about rostering him.
- Luka Doncic, DAL ($11,300): Doncic’s price tag is climbing at a rapid rate, but it’s a fair increase — the man just completed a game with a 30/20/10 triple-double. Doncic is one of the best players in the NBA right now and has eclipsed 65 points in both games in the bubble. He’s on a heat-check — buy him.
- James Harden, HOU ($10,700): There may not be a player with a higher ceiling than Harden, particularly if Westbrook is sidelined. His matchup against the Lakers won’t be easy, but Harden should have every opportunity to reach value in this contest.
- Michael Porter Jr., DEN ($6,400): MPJ is simply playing too well right now for you to fade him. His back-to-back 50-plus point performances dwarf his current price tag, and his matchup tonight presents another opportunity for a strong performance.
- T.J. Warren, IND ($8,400): Warren is playing like a man that’s currently possessed. He’s scored 53, 34, and 32 points in his last three contests — yes, actual points, not DraftKings points. I wouldn’t be the guy to fade someone as hot as Warren tonight, but he’ll likely be a chalky option.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- LeBron James, LAL ($10,500): The Lakers have nothing to play for, and LeBron has been average thus far in the bubble. In addition, this game tips off late, leaving you with limited options due to the early lock. Don’t be surprised if the Lakers scale back LeBron’s minutes.
- Russell Westbrook, HOU ($9,000): It’s not often you’ll see Westbrook’s name on this list, but it’s the wise decision to make. Early lock likely won’t provide you the opportunity to sit and wait to see if Westbrook ultimately suits up tonight. Avoid the situation altogether and make sure you field players that are certain to play.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,000): Like the Lakers, the Bucks have nothing left to play for. Giannis registered only 16 minutes of playing time in his last game, and that figure doesn’t seem like it’ll increase today.
- Jamal Murray, DEN ($7,400): Murray has yet to play in the bubble due to a hamstring injury. He was questionable for yesterday’s contest and could go today, though you should avoid this situation as Murray is likely to be rusty. If he plays, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a limited amount of minutes for the starting point guard, either.
- Anthony Davis, LAL ($10,300): Davis’ inconsistency in the bubble is not something we’re used to from the dominant big man. While he has a great matchup tonight, it wouldn’t be a shock to see his workload scaled back significantly.
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