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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy: Friday (8/7)

Aug 7, 2020

Thursday’s slate was maybe the worst slate of the Orlando restart, with every game being decided by double-digit margins. That shouldn’t be the case here, with no club being higher than a 6.5-point favorite. That happens to be America’s favorite team, the New Orleans Pelicans. We also have a ton of bad defenses on display and it’ll likely be another high-scoring day.

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Value Plays

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Chris Paul (OKC) vs. MEM $8,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
De’Aaron Fox (SAC) vs. BKN $7,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Ish Smith (WSH) vs. NOP $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

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  • While we don’t have any premier options here, there are still a bunch of solid picks. Paul is just that, essentially playing with a 35-point floor and facing a 23rd-ranked Grizzlies defense. Fox has at least 49 fantasy points in three of his last four games and faces a Brooklyn team that owns a 27th OPRK against opposing PGs. Smith has been starting at PG recently and could excel with his speed against an up-tempo Pelicans defense, who continues to play atrocious defense.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jrue Holiday (NOP) vs. WSH $9,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Bogdan Bogdanovic (SAC) vs. BKN $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Luguentz Dort (OKC) vs. MEM $3,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

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  • Holiday is one of the best plays on the board against the worst defense in the NBA. Bogdanovic just collected 35 points, four rebounds and three assists on Thursday and gets to face a porous Nets team. Dort is not sexy but he’s scored at least 19 DK points in four-straight games while playing 33 minutes a game in that span. That’s plenty from a $3,500 player.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Brandon Ingram (NOP) vs. WSH $8,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Troy Brown Jr. (WSH) vs. NOP $5,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Josh Richardson (PHI) vs. ORL $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

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  • We love all of the Pelicans against Washington and that makes Ingram one of the best options out there in a breakout year. Brown has been thriving with Bradley Beal and John Wall out, averaging 37 DraftKings points per game in the Orlando restart. Richardson has been inconsistent, to say the least, but he should start at PG here with Ben Simmons injured.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jayson Tatum (BOS) vs. TOR $7,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Danilo Gallinari (OKC) vs. MEM $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Brandon Clarke (MEM) vs. OKC $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

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  • Tatum has taken the next step as a player, averaging over 45 fantasy points per game across his last 27 fixtures. Look for him to play big minutes in a rivalry game. Gallinari is just too good to be below $6,000, averaging 31.4 DK points per game for the season while dropping at least 28 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. With Jaren Jackson Jr.out, it’s time to unleash Clarke and play him at least 25 minutes.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Thomas Bryant (WSH) vs. NOP $7,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jarrett Allen (BKN) vs. SAC $6,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Richaun Holmes (SAC) vs. WSH $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

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  • Bryant has been a stud since the Orlando restart, scoring at least 43 fantasy points in three-straight games. Allen is averaging nearly 35 DK points per game when starting for DeAndre Jordan. Holmes just played 32 minutes on Thursday and if he does that again here against Washington, we could literally be looking at 10X upside.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Jrue Holiday (NOP) $9,300: Holiday might be the best bet for 40 fantasy points of any player on this slate. He’s actually scored at least 38 DK points in 12 of his last 15 games in total, averaging 41.2 fantasy points per game in that span and 40 for the season. That’s scary for the worst defense in the NBA, the Wizards.
  • De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $7,600: Fox has at least 35 DK points in 11 of his last 12 games, averaging 41 fantasy points per game since the Orlando restart. We love that with the Nets owning a 26th OPRK against PGs this season.
  • Thomas Bryant (WSH) $7,200: Bryant should be closer to $9,000 the way he’s playing. Over the last three games, he’s averaging 23 points, 11.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals and 3.0 blocks per game. That equates to 51 DK points per game, which is terrifying for a 26th-ranked Pelicans defense.
  • Caris LeVert (BKN) $7,100: With Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie and Kevin Durant all out, LeVert is posting a usage rate north of 30 percent. That’s led to him averaging 41 fantasy points per game across his last 15 outings.
  • Richaun Holmes (SAC) $4,900: Stud? Yeah, Holmes isn’t a stud but he’s way too good to be priced this cheaply. We’re talking about a guy who’s averaging 29 fantasy points per game for the season and finally played 32 minutes on Thursday. If he plays 30-plus minutes against Brooklyn, he’s an easy bet for 30-plus fantasy points, making him one of the best per-dollar plays on the board.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Ben Simmons (PHI) $8,800: Simmons got injured on Wednesday and appears unlikely to suit up here. He’s been struggling mightily anyway.
  • Ja Morant (MEM) $8,500: Ja is one of my favorite players around but this price is absurd. It’s risen $1,500 since the restart and we can’t trust that against a sixth-ranked OKC defense. In his two meetings against the Thunder this season, Morant is averaging fewer than 30 fantasy points per game.
  • Zion Williamson (NOP) $8,000: This price! I just can’t do it. It’s a superb matchup but he’s still not playing more than 25 minutes, making him hard to trust at $8,000.
  • Jonas Valanciunas (MEM) $7,300: JV is awesome but he’s only playing 28 minutes per game over his last nine outings. That’s even more worrisome against a Top-10 Thunder defense and hounds like Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel.
  • Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,000: Walker is still playing limited minutes and that’s no good against an elite Raptors defense.

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings >>

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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