Skip to main content

DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (8/14)

Aug 14, 2020

Today marks the final day of the regular-season bubble, and it’s been a heck of a journey up to this point. With that said, it could get rather ugly. We have nobody really playing for anything, and it’s going to cause chaos for DFS purposes. That means we need to try to guess who will play and who will sit, as that is where all the value will come from.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Shake Milton (PHI) vs. HOU $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
P.J. Dozier (DEN) vs. TOR $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Terance Mann (LAC) vs. OKC $3,300 ⭐⭐⭐ High

__________

  • With Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid likely out again, Milton should get another start at PG.
  • We believe that the Nuggets may rest most of their starters, leaving Dozier to play big minutes. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 22.1 DK points per game across 23 minutes of action. That’s enough at this price tag, but imagine how good he could be in 30-35 minutes!
  • Mann is a must-play if Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Lou Williams, and Patrick Beverley are all out.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
James Harden (HOU) vs. PHI $11,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Tyler Herro (MIA) vs. IND $5,700 ⭐⭐ Medium
Matisse Thybulle (PHI) vs. HOU $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

__________

  • Harden is the easiest play on the board, as he leads the NBA in fantasy points scored. He is also a basketball fiend and should play plenty
  • With Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, and Bam Adebayo all out, Herro should lead this team in usage rate. That’s all we can hope for after scoring at least 29 DK points in four-straight games.
  • Thybulle could be asked to play big minutes, and a defensive stud like this could thrive against the fastest-paced team in the NBA.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Robert Covington (HOU) vs. PHI $7,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Hamidou Diallo (OKC) vs. LAC $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Doug McDermott (IND) vs. MIA $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐ High

__________

  • Covington plays a ton for this short team, and we’ll talk more about that later!
  • Diallo could start with Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, and Steven Adams all potentially resting. That’s big for a guy who’s averaging 20 DK points per game across his last four outings in limited minutes.
  • With half of Indiana’s roster sitting, McDermott could be looking at 30 minutes and 15-plus shots. If that’s the case, he should explode below $4,000.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Al Horford (PHI) vs. HOU $6,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Darius Bazley (OKC) vs. LAC $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Bol Bol (DEN) vs. TOR $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐ High

__________

  • Horford averaged more than 30 DK points per game without Embiid this season, and he could be an intriguing option against the worst defense in the bubble.
  • With OKC likely resting many players, Bazley could be looking at a start and 30 minutes. That’s huge, as he’s scored at least 37 fantasy points in three-straight outings.
  • This could be a game where the Nuggets ride their youngsters. When Bol Bol gets minutes, he produces.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Nerlens Noel (OKC) vs. LAC $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Kyle O’Quinn (PHI) vs. HOU $3,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
TJ Leaf (IND) vs. MIA $3,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High

__________

  • Something tells me that Steven Adams will sit with CP3 also out, and that would make Noel one of the best plays out there. In his seven starts this season, Noel is averaging 30 DraftKings points per game across 26 minutes of action
  • O’Quinn just started on Tuesday and had the best game of his career. He fell one-point shy of a triple-double, finishing with 45 DK points. If Horford and Embiid are out again, don’t fade O’Quinn.
  • With Myles Turner, T.J. Warren, and Domantas Sabonis out, Leaf may be looking at big minutes. Anyone who plays 20-plus minutes at a minimum price tag is in play.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • James Harden (HOU) $11,500: Harden is the easiest play of the day. The guy just loves to play basketball, and it’s unlikely that he’ll play anything less than 25 minutes. Even if he does only play 25 minutes, this guy can still provide 50 fantasy points, and those raw points are huge on such a volatile slate like this. Not to mention, he’s much better without Russell Westbrook.
  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $10,000: Leonard has surprisingly been playing a lot recently, and we have to ride him as long as he’s suiting up. We’re talking about a guy who’s played at least 37 minutes in three of his last four games that’s averaged nearly 50 fantasy points per game in that span. What adds to his value is the fact that Paul George may be out too, but this Leonard situation is something that needs to be monitored as well.
  • Robert Covington (HOU) $7,100: Covington just plays minutes. Getting a guy who plays a lot is all we can hope for with so much uncertainty out there, and RoCo should be extra motivated against his former team. Over his last eight games played, Covington is averaging 34 DK points per game across 36 minutes per game.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Joel Embiid (PHI) $9,900: Embiid enters this matchup with a questionable tag after yet another injury, and it would be hard to imagine him suiting up with nothing to play for. Even if he does, it’ll likely be limited minutes anyway, making him impossible to trust at $9,900.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $9,400: Jokic hasn’t been ruled out yet, but something tells me that he will be. Even if he’s not, it’s unlikely that he’ll play more than 20-25 minutes in yet another meaningless game.
  • Paul George (LAC) $8,600: George has been in and out of the lineup with many different ailments, and it would be hard to imagine him playing much in the final game with nothing on the line. Even if he does play, he may not play much.
  • Here’s a list of players who have already been ruled out as well: Russell Westbrook, Ben Simmons, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Myles Turner, and Victor Oladipo. There will be more, so be sure to keep an eye on that!

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

What's your take? Leave a comment

Build winning DFS lineups

Use the FantasyPros Lineup Optimizer to build winning lineups based on expert projections.