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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Monday (8/10)

Aug 10, 2020

Sunday’s slate was one of the highest-scoring of the season, with five of the six winners scoring at least 120 points. That’s kinda where the NBA is at right now though, with teams running and firing up threes like crazy. For this slate, we have just 10 teams on the docket and a couple of potential Conference Finals previews. With that in mind, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays

Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Mike Conley (UTA) vs. DAL $6,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Eric Bledsoe (MIN) vs. TOR $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Trey Burke (DAL) vs. UTA $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Low

__________

  • Conley has been a different player since the Orlando restart, averaging 36 DK points per game across his last three outings while scoring at least 26 fantasy points in 10 of his last 11 games in total.
  • Bledsoe is pretty cheap because of his limited minutes, but he’s getting close to a full workload. He played 31 minutes in the last game and if he gets 30 minutes here, he’s a heck of a value at $5,400.
  • Burke might be the chalk play of the day with Doncic out, but he’s got legitimate 10X upside at just $3,700 as the starting point guard for Dallas.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Victor Oladipo (IND) vs. MIA $5,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Tyler Herro (MIA) vs. IND $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Luguentz Dort (OKC) vs. PHX $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • Oladipo isn’t quite the All-Star that we remember but he’s getting close to that. Playing 35 minutes in the last game might be the most encouraging sign, with Oladipo scoring at least 25 DK points in nine-straight games.
  • If Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic are out again, Herro is one of the best plays on the board. He dropped 51 DK points across 36 minutes in his last game without those two on Saturday.
  • Dort just continues to find his way into my articles as a value. The stud defender has scored at least 20 DK points in four-straight while averaging 32 minutes a game in that span. That’s all you can hope for from a $4,000 player in a great matchup.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Tim Hardaway (DAL) vs. UTA $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Royce O’Neale (UTA) vs. DAL $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Justin Jackson (DAL) vs. UTA $3,200 ⭐⭐ High

__________

  • With Luka and Kristaps Porzingis out, Hardaway will likely be the focal point of this Dallas offense. He actually averaged over 30 DK points per game in outings without both of those guys earlier this season.
  • O’Neale deserves more respect from DraftKings. Scoring 24 DraftKings points in six-straight is impressive enough below $5,000 but he’s also averaging 31 fantasy points per game across 33 minutes of action in that same span.
  • Jackson could find himself as a starter with Porzingis, Doncic and Dorian Finney-Smith all out. If he starts and plays 25-plus minutes, JJ is a great option at a near-minimum price tag.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Cameron Johnson (PHO) vs. PHX $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jerami Grant (DEN) vs. LAL $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Maxi Kleber (DAL) vs. UTA $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

__________

  • People don’t realize just how valuable CJ has been for the Suns in this restart. Over his last six games, Johnson is averaging 30 DraftKings points per game in 33 minutes per outing.
  • Grant may have surpassed Millsap on the pecking order in Denver, averaging 31 fantasy points per game across 37 minutes over his last three games played.
  • Kleber looks like a good bet to start for Porzingis here. If you look at Kleber’s 21 starts this season, he’s averaging 25 DK points in 31 minutes of action. His numbers are even better without Porzingis.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Brook Lopez (MIL) vs. TOR $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Nerlens Noel (OKC) vs. PHX $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Boban Marjanovic (DAL) vs. UTA $3,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High

__________

  • Lopez just dropped 50 DK points in his last game and has scored at least 29 fantasy points in five straight. That’s all you can hope for from a $5,300 player, and he might be asked to play more against a stout Toronto frontcourt.
  • If Stevens Adams sits and Noel starts, he’d be one of the best plays on the board, averaging more than one fantasy point per minute.
  • If we get word that Marjanovic is starting for this shorthanded Mavs team, he’d be the best play on the board. Whenever he plays minutes, Boban produces. We love his minimum price tag too.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,600: Giannis is always worth his price tag, but his antlers perk up when he faces the Raptors. In fact, Antetokounmpo is averaging 69.3 fantasy points per game in two outings against them this season.
  • Anthony Davis (LAL) $9,900: Davis has been terrible the last three games but it’s lowered his price tag to a number we can’t overlook. In three games against Denver this season, he’s averaging 52 DraftKings points per game which is pretty much his season average.
  • Bam Adebayo (MIA) $7,900: With Butler and Dragic potentially out, Bam might be Miami’s go-to playmaker again. We’re talking about a guy who’s averaging over 41 fantasy points per game for the season and surpasses that average in two meetings with the Pacers this season.
  • Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $6,900: Brogdon is too good to be sitting below $7,000. We’re talking about a stat-stuffing machine, who’s scored at least 41 DK points in three of his last four games.
  • Brook Lopez (MIL) $5,300: This is probably my favorite per-dollar play of the day. All he needs is 27 fantasy points to surpass 5X value and that appears to be the floor with his recent form.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,000: It sounds like Luka will sit here for rest, making all of the cheap Mavs intriguing.
  • Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) $8,500: Same goes for KP, as Dallas is going to ride their youngsters in this outing.
  • Michael Porter (DEN) $7,700: MPJ has been amazing for the Nuggets in this restart, but this sky-high price tag and tough matchup make him someone I want to avoid, especially with how highly-used he’ll be.
  • T.J. Warren (IND) $8,400: This is another case of a player whose salary is getting too high. While Warren has been one of the best players in this restart, he’s due for some negative regression, and a matchup against a stout Miami defense is a good way for that to start happening. Don’t forget that Oladipo and Malcolm Brogdon are seeing an uptick too.
  • Fred VanVleet (TOR) $7,300: This is simply a tough matchup for the undersized guard, having to match up against this lengthy Milwaukee defense. That’s certainly been the case in their first two meetings with the Bucks, averaging just 24 DK points per game, despite playing nearly 39 minutes per outing.

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings >>

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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