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DraftKings Lineup Advice: The PGA Championship (2020)

DraftKings Lineup Advice: The PGA Championship (2020)

Justin Thomas (12/1) won his 13th career PGA Tour victory and third title of 2020 at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational. Thomas took over the number one spot in the official world golf ranking with the win. The 27-year-old carded rounds of 66-70-66-65 to finish at 13-under par and win the tournament by three strokes. Thomas becomes the third-youngest golfer to reach 13 wins in the last 60 years, behind just Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus.

It’s officially Major week in the PGA! The first Major of the season will be played at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, California. The PGA Championship will be the first of three Majors this year, and it will be the first Major since Shane Lowry took down the Open Championship in July of 2019. Despite there being no fans on the grounds this week, there will be no shortage of excitement heading into the event, as we will see an incredibly strong field with the best golfers in the world teeing it up.

A field of 156 players will be in the mix this week at TPC Harding Park. As per usual, the top-65 with ties will advance to the weekend. Newly crowned world number one Justin Thomas (11/1) and defending champion Brooks Koepka (11/1) are the betting favorites. Rory McIlroy (15/1), Jon Rahm (16/1), and Bryson Dechambeau (17/1) round out the top-five on BetMGM.

Here are the past five winners of the PGA Championship:

  • 2019 Brooks Koepka (-8)
  • 2018 Brooks Koepka (-16)
  • 2017 Justin Thomas (-8)
  • 2016 Jimmy Walker (-14)
  • 2015 Jason Day (-20)

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Course Preview

Located on the west coast of San Francisco, California, TPC Harding Park is a mid-length parkland golf course that has undergone plenty of changes since its opening in 1925. This week, the course will play as a Par 70 and it will measure at 7,234 yards. However, as is the case with any Major event, tee boxes will be lengthened and with the thick San Francisco air, it will play much longer than the scorecard indicates.

Distance off the tee will be a major advantage at TPC Harding Park. With very few water hazards in play, bombers will be able to cut corners and use their off the tee game to set up shorter approach shots. Similar to last week at TPC Southwind, this course will feature seven Par 4s that measure over 450 yards long. There is even a Par 3 that is playing at a cruel 250 yards, which could easily play as the hardest hole this week. Proximity on approaches greater than 200 yards will be a key metric to look at.

Plenty of strategically placed bunkers, thick rough, and big Cypress Pine trees will be a challenge to the golfers this week. Players will be making the switch to Bentgrass greens, which are said to be mostly flat with little undulation. Coastal winds will pose another test for the golfers, and with the event being played in August, the course will be a bit more dried out than usual.

The last PGA Tour event we saw at TPC Harding Park was the 2015 WGC Match Play. Rory McIlroy was victorious over Gary Woodland in the final of the event. This is something to keep in mind, as these two are some of the longest, most accurate drivers of the golf ball in the PGA. Tiger Woods also has good vibes at this course, as he was the leading scorer in team USA’s President Cup victory in 2009, and he won the 2005 WGC American Express.

Key Stats

  • Ball-Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Scrambling
  • Performance on Bentgrass Greens
  • Par-4 Scoring (450-500 yards)

Recommended Plays

Brooks Koepka ($11,200)
Koepka will be going for the three-peat of the PGA Championship. He always seems to elevate his game to a new level on Major week. All signs are pointing in the right direction for Koepka, who finished T2 last week at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Koepka finished first in strokes gained: approach and third in strokes gained: tee-to-green. His elite ball-striking ability has returned just in time for the biggest event the year has seen.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,300)
DeChambeau’s insane driving distance will be a huge asset this week at TPC Harding Park. With several long Par 4s, and two drivable Par 4s, DeChambeau should be able to let it loose. DeChambeau is seventh in opportunities gained in the last 36 rounds and ranks 12th in scoring on Par 4s between 450-500 yards. With eight top-10s in just 13 events this season, DeChambeau is playing the best golf of his career.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
Cantlay was third at the PGA Championship in 2019, tied for ninth at the Masters, and placed T21 on the US Open. The 28-year-old has proven he is a threat in Majors and has a great all-around golf game to go well once again. Top-ten in both strokes gained: approach and tee-to-green, Cantlay sets up well for TPC Harding Park. He is one of the best ball-strikers on Tour and very accurate with his approaches. Cantlay caught fire on the weekend at the WGC last week, closing with rounds of 65 and 67.

Dustin Johnson ($9,000)
This is simply too good of a price for a player of Johnson’s caliber. He has a high winning upside and really enjoys playing in California. According to Future of Fantasy, Johnson has gained the most strokes on California courses since 2008 than any other golfer. The 21-time PGA Tour winner won the Travelers Championship in June and it featured a mix of Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens. He is also coming off a solid T12 showing at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

Daniel Berger ($8,800)
The underlying stats look great for Berger heading into this week. In the last 36 rounds, Berger ranks third in Par 4 efficiency on holes between 450-500 yards. He also ranks ninth in proximity on approaches greater than 200 yards. These are two key stats this week, and the way Berger is rolling it with the putter, I expect another high finish. The 27-year-old is coming off an impressive T2 finish at the WGC in Memphis. He shot rounds of 71-67-67-65 to make a big push on the weekend.

Jason Day ($8,400)
Day has quietly put up three straight top-10 finishes. He seems to be regaining the world-class form that made him a threat every time he teed it up. In the last 36 rounds on Bentgrass where scoring is difficult relative to par, Day ranks first in strokes gained and 13th in DraftKings points. He is tremendous on Bentgrass surfaces and should continue to roll in California.

Tyrell Hatton ($8,000)
Another misprice for one of the best golfers in 2020, Hatton is the type of grinder that should go well this week. In just seven events this year, Hatton has five top-10s including a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He ranks fourth in the field in scoring on Par 4s between 450-500 yards and is elite with his long irons. He has the all-around game to make a big difference for your lineups at this price.

Shane Lowry ($7,500)
The 2019 Open Championship winner is trending in the right direction ahead of this week’s Major. Lowry placed T6 last week at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational in a very stacked field. He is sixth in the field in proximity with approaches over 200 yards, so he should have no problem with some of the longer holes TPC Harding Park presents. The Irishman is a great driver of the ball and can scramble with the best of them.

Harris English ($7,200)
In the last 36 rounds on Bentgrass surfaces where scoring is difficult relative to par, English ranks second in strokes gained. He is also a top-15 putter in the field on Bentgrass, so he sets up very well here. It has been a very solid season for the 31-year-old. He has five top-10s in 15 events, including a T3 finish at The Greenbrier. English has very few holes in his game, and his high GIR numbers should bode well for TPC Harding Park.

Mackenzie Hughes ($6,600)
If you’re looking for a cheap option to round out your roster, I like the chances Hughes has of making the cut and performing well this week. The Canadian has a T3 finish at the Travelers and a T6 finish at the Memorial a few weeks ago. These were very strong fields and he tends to go overlooked quite a bit in DFS. It’s no surprise that in the last 36 rounds on Bentgrass where scoring is difficult relative to par, Hughes ranks 11th in strokes gained.

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Whether you’re new to daily fantasy golf or a seasoned professional, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Golf Glossary. You can get started with The Stats That Matter Most or head to more advanced strategy — like How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup  — to learn more.

Nic Turner is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.

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