FanDuel DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Sunday (8/2)
It’s only a six-game slate on FanDuel’s main slate of action today, and the pitching options are mediocre at best. With no pitchers priced north of $9,000, there’s plenty of salary space to pay up for hitters at Coors Field, and that’s reflected in the touted plays below.
|Aaron Civale (CLE)||@ MIN||$8,400||⭐||High|
|Yonny Chirinos (TB)||@ BAL||$7,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Civale is squaring off with the Twins in an American League Central battle that’s teetering close to a pick ’em with the Twins serving as just -114 moneyline favorite and the Tribe at +102, per the BettingPros consensus line. The game’s Over/Under total of 9.5 runs poses reason for pause, but that’s right in line with the majority of the totals on the main slate and speaks to the lack of top-end quality pitchers toeing the rubber. Civale had an excellent opener and owns a 2.40 ERA through 11 starts totaling 63.2 innings in his young big-league career, but his 4.46 SIERA, per FanGraphs, isn’t nearly as sterling. Furthermore, the Twins pack plenty of punch in their lineup to give even the best pitchers in the game fits. He’s risky, but the same can be said of all of today’s starters.
Chirinos is my favorite option, namely because of a favorable matchup with the Orioles. Also, it doesn’t hurt he and the Rays are -200 moneyline favorites. In his 19 starts spanning 108.1 innings since last year, Chirinos has whipped up a 3.41 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 5.8 BB%, 22.4 K%, and 4.22 SIERA. Only Tommy Milone‘s 4.06 SIERA in starts since last year is better among today’s probable starters.
|Willson Contreras (CHC)||vs. PIT||$3,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Miguel Sano (MIN)||vs. CLE||$2,500||⭐⭐||High|
|Ty France (SD)||@ COL||$2,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
In 358 plate appearances against lefties since 2017, Contreras has totaled a .389 OBP, .241 ISO and 139 wRC+. Opposing lefty Steven Brault is expected to be used as sort of an opener before giving way to righty Chad Kuhl, but Contreras’ .336 OBP, .192 ISO, and 108 wRC+ against righties since 2017 should alleviate concerns about the lefty departing for the righty.
Sano muscled a pair of homers yesterday, and he should get some point-chasing ownership. Of course, he has mammoth power that always puts a multi-homer game in his range of outcomes. Among qualified hitters last year, Sano ranked fourth in barrels per plate appearance percentage and tied for first in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity at a sizzling 99.6 mph, according to Baseball Savant. As for France, he’s playing at Coors Field, home to the runaway leader in park factor for runs at 1.335 and the second-highest park factor for homers (1.249) per our MLB Park Factors page.
|Cesar Hernandez (CLE)||@ MIN||$2,600||⭐⭐||Medium|
|Robinson Cano (NYM)||@ ATL||$2,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Mike Brosseau (TB)||@ BAL||$2,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Hernandez and Brosseau are primarily included due to their lineup spots. Hernandez hits leadoff for the Indians while Brosseau slotted second against a southpaw yesterday. Cano’s my favorite option off the bunch. He’s raking early with a .438 OBP, .179 ISO, and 181 wRC+ through his first 32 plate appearances this year, has a track record of hitting well against righties and draws a plum matchup. Youngster Kyle Wright hasn’t figured out big-league hitters yet, and the 49 lefties who’ve faced him since last year have amassed a .408 OBP, .545 SLG, and .401 wOBA against him.
|Yoan Moncada (CHW)||@ KC||$3,300||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Jeff McNeil (NYM)||@ ATL||$2,800||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Yandy Diaz (TB)||@ BAL||$2,600||⭐⭐||High|
For full disclosure, I’d much prefer to use a soon-to-come third baseman at the hot corner tonight or his opponent, but if you’re going to fade the massive upside both posses, Moncada’s no slouch. His .216 ISO and 126 wRC+ against righties since 2017 are plenty good, and Jakob Junis was punished by lefties last year to the tune of a .352 wOBA.
McNeil draws the same dreamy matchup as Cano, calls a better lineup spot home and owns a .390 OBP, .204 ISO, and 147 wRC+ against righties since reaching The Show in 2018. Diaz is easily the least attractive option of the group, but a Rays stack is an interesting contrarian option, and Diaz would fit into that nicely.
|Francisco Lindor (CLE)||@ MIN||$3,300||⭐⭐||High|
I’m not going to blow smoke up your keester and pretend like there are value shortstop options I’d consider even with numerous GPP entries beyond Lindor. Spoiler alert, but one of the expensive shortstops playing at Coors Field today is included in the studs worth their salary. If he doesn’t play, I’d spin over to his opponent. Having said that, if for whatever they aren’t options (weather, a COVID positive test being revealed and resulting in a postponement, or either/both are given a day off), Lindor’s the next-best play. If you’re entering double-digit or triple-digit GPP lineups, he’s also worth mixing in.
|Trent Grisham (SD)||@ COL||$3,300||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Michael Conforto (NYM)||@ ATL||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Luis Robert (CHW)||@ KC||$2,800||⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Hunter Renfroe (TB)||@ BAL||$2,800||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Franmil Reyes (CLE)||@ MIN||$2,400||⭐⭐⭐||High|
Grisham provided the only offense for the Friars at Coors Field last night with a solo homer. The dinger was his third of the young campaign and helped lift his wRC+ to 177 in 40 plate appearances. He enjoyed an encouraging rookie season for the Brewers, and he’s providing positive returns for his new club thus far.
Conforto is the third member of the Mets to get the nod in the tables. He, too, will benefit from Wright’s struggles against lefties to date in his career. For Conforto’s part, he’s a handful for righties in general with a .382 OBP, .249 ISO and 139 wRC+ against them since 2017.
Robert is quickly living up to his prospect billing and hit leadoff yesterday. He’s unlikely to relinquish that lineup spot after a four-hit performance that included a single, two doubles and a homer. He’s up to a .273 ISO and 184 wRC+ through his first 34 plate appearances for the Pale Hose.
Renfroe and Reyes are tater-chasing options with Renfroe the more appealing, yet more expensive, option of the two.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Trevor Story, COL ($4,300): Story’s a man on fire to start the year, and he owns a .295 ISO against righties at home in his career.
- Fernando Tatis Jr., SD ($4,200): Tatis Jr. is the direct pivot from Story at just $100 cheaper and treated to the same tasty park factors.
- Nolan Arenado, COL ($4,000): In 732 plate appearances against righties at home since 2017, he has a .387 OBP, .269 ISO, and 122 wRC+.
- Charlie Blackmon, COL ($3,900): In 649 plate appearances against righties at home since 2017, he has a .437 OBP, .342 ISO, 166 wRC+.
- David Dahl, COL ($3,700): In 365 plate appearances against righties at home in his career, he has a .379 OBP, .265 ISO, and 127 wRC+.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Tommy Pham, SD ($3,900): Some concessions for players at Coors Field have to be made, and Pham’s solid but unspectacular .194 ISO against righties since 2017 made him one of my choices to fade from the Coors Field game.
- Javier Baez, CHC ($3,700): With my attention on Story and Tatis Jr., Baez is a fade. Additionally, Brault’s projected short start paving the way to Kuhl knocks down Baez’s value given his lefty/righty splits (.289 ISO and 144 wRC+ against lefties and .230 ISO and 107 wRC+ against righties since 2017).
- Kris Bryant, CHC ($3,500): Bryant was scratched from yesterday’s lineup due to illness. Even if he’s back in today’s lineup, I’ll pass on spinning down from Arenado or Machado to a possibly still less than 100% Bryant.
- Ryan McMahon, COL ($3,300)
- Daniel Murphy, COL ($3,100): McMahon and Murphy suffer from a numbers crunch. You can only stack four players from the same team, and the one-through-four of Dahl, Story, Blackmon, and Arenado are far more appealing than dumping anyone from the quartet for them.