We have good pitching matchups on the all-day slate but some will cost you a pretty penny. The mid-tier, affordable pitching options definitely require a buyer beware tag and most should be avoided as offenses look primed to win the day. With fireworks expected, going cheap at pitcher and spending up on offense could be a winning strategy today. We’ve built up enough data points now that we’re a third of the way through the season that we can reliably use 2020 stats as a barometer instead of having to draw so much on career numbers to help us make informed decisions. Let’s get after it.

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Value Plays

Pitcher

 
Kevin Gausman is coming off an 11-strikeout performance against the Athletics in his last start and how he gets the middling Angels at home. There’s certainly risk facing a lineup with the likes of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon but Gausman’s 11.9 K/9 and his 6.80 K/BB ratio are well above his career marks. He’s liable to give up a long ball or two but his strikeout upside makes the price worth it.

Spencer Turnbull’s 21:11 K/BB ratio and 1.235 WHIP suggest his stellar 2.78 ERA should be much higher and that he’s been getting lucky. But he’s registered a 2.88 FIP and a 2-1 record over his first four starts so maybe the numbers aren’t lying. He does come with some risk against a tough White Sox lineup and if they make him work it could get ugly, especially in the walks department. But his opponent, Lucas Giolito, hasn’t looked great at all this year so the Tigers have a chance to put up some runs, and Turnbull, if he does his job, could be in line for a win.

The high risk comes with the fact that Alex Young will be making just his second start of the year; he filled in for Madison Bumgarner in his first start against Toronto after coming out of the pen previously. He should be a little more stretched out after going 4.1 innings while throwing 63 pitches against the Jays. He won’t blow you away with his strikeouts, he only has 15 K’s over 14.0 innings this season but the D-backs are arguably the hottest team in baseball and could score enough runs to give Young a victory; that is, if he pitches well enough to earn one.

Catcher/First Base

 
Pedro Severino has been clobbering right-handed pitching this year with a .345/.410/.618 batting line over 55 AB’s. He’s been splitting time behind the plate with Chance Sisco so there’s a risk that he may not be lineup but he had the day off on Wednesday so he should be good to go on Thursday. He’s 10-for-25 over his last six games with two home runs and nine RBI.

Christian Walker’s splits versus LHP really jump off the page as he’s logged a 1.043 OPS (14 at-bats) against a .726 OPS off RHP. The career splits aren’t quite as drastic but the D-backs are facing Sean Manaea who’s looked all kinds of awful this year with his 7.65 ERA. Righties are slashing a cool .333/.368/.508 against him and Walker could be a major beneficiary if Manaea were to have another rough game.

Second Base

 
Marte has been seeing the ball well in August with seven multi-hit performances in 16 games. He’s slugging .429 over the last two weeks and has a .350 BA and a .700 OPS versus left-handed pitching on the year. Sean Manaea has really struggled out of the gates and Marte could be one of many D-backs worth stacking against him.

It’s been a while since we’ve been able to recommend Moustakas as he’s been out for the better part of August with a quad injury. He’s 4-for-14 in his career against Waino, though, with one home run and three RBI and a pair of walks. This may be the cheapest we’ll see Moose for a while and his upside is worth it.

Cano has reached base safely in six of seven games since being activated off the IL on August 14th. He also has three home runs and six RBI over that same span. Even though he’s facing a lefty in Daniel Castano, Robby has fared quite well against LHP throughout his career, and especially this season, slashing .333/.368/.667.

Third Base

 
Devers has been frustrating for both season-long and DFS fantasy players all year but it finally, fingers crossed, looks like he’s turned the corner. His price tag has started to drop and there’s a potential arbitrage opportunity here as we all know he’s better than how he’s played up to this point. Over his last seven games, he’s hitting .315 with two home runs and seven RBI (he only has three home runs and nine RBI on the season). He’s also had back-t0-back three-hit games coming into Thursday. He’s got a great chance to stay hot against Baltimore’s Asher Wojciechowski and his price makes him well worth the risk.

It’s not easy recommending a guy hitting who’s hitting just .186 this year but he’s bound to turn it around at some point…right? Escobar should have a good shot to do against Oakland’s Sean Manaea, if you’ve read this far you’re starting to spot a trend. Eduardo’s .182 BABIP (.226 overall) suggests he’s been unlucky and he’s not striking out a ton, either, with only 19 K’s against nine walks over 86 at-bats. His career splits favor him as well with a .277 BA and a .772 OPS against lefties. He certainly carries a lot of risks, as does anyone hitting below the Mendoza line, so pay with caution.

Diaz is a safer option at third base and feels appropriately priced as he’s one of the only Rays with career success against Yankees starter James Paxton (3-for-6 with a stolen base). Diaz also has a .269 batting average and a .441 OBP versus LHP on the season (26 at-bats). He won’t light up the box score for you but he’s usually a good bet to reach base and score a run or two.

Shortstop

 
Tim Anderson is 8-for-17 over his last four games with three home runs and two stolen bases and he’s facing Spencer Turnbull, who has been having control issues his last few starts. Opponents have also swiped four bags on Turnbull’s watch this year. Anderson has never been a patient hitter but if the ChiSox game plan is to make Turnbull work then Anderson has a good chance to reach base and commit a theft or two. And if he decides to pound the strike zone then Timmy has the pop to make him pay. This feels like a win-win.

On the surface, Goodrum’s 2020 numbers are ugly; he’s slashing just .205/.253/.423 with four home runs and 14 RBI but those numbers can be attributed to his struggles against right-handed pitching. On the contrary, he’s got a .400/.409/900 batting line with two home runs and six RBI against lefties in 20 AB’s his year, and he’s facing the struggling Lucas Giolito. This is a dart throw but all it takes is one swing to pay off.

Outfield

 
Yastrzemski is working on a seven-game hitting streak with two home runs and a 1.157 OPS over that span. He’s the engine that makes the Giants upstart offense run and he gets to face Jose Suarez, who’s making his season debut, and registered a 7.11 ERA across 19 appearances (15 starts) in 2019. Yas’ is batting .311 against righties and .310 against lefties this year so the left on left matchup shouldn’t bother you.

Santander has been white-hot over the last two weeks as he’s compiled a 14-game hitting streak, seven bombs, and 18 RBI with a 1.326 OPS over that span. He’s been mashing right-handed pitching all season to the tune of a .313/.345/.738 slash line and he’s facing Nathan Eovaldi at home. Cha-ching.

Marte, yet another D-back, is tearing the cover off the ball in August and just had his eight-game hitting streak snapped on Wednesday. Over the last two weeks, he’s scored 10 runs with two home runs and nine RBI with a .980 OPS. He’s also slashing an eye-popping .571/.625/.714 over 14 at-bats against lefties this season; a small sample size, yes, but still noteworthy. I swear I’m not picking on you, Sean Manaea.

Winker has been on a power surge lately and due to the fact the Reds had some COVID-19 postponements August 15-18, it’s kind of gone under the radar. The lefty has mashed six home runs in his last six games and five of them have come against right-handers. His one hit in six career at-bats against Adam Wainwright was, you guessed it, a home run.

Verdugo is working on a 10-game hitting streak with two home runs, five RBI, and a pair of stolen bases over that same span. He’s also slashing .295/.340/.659 against right-handed pitchers and should have plenty of cracks at Baltimore starter Asher Wojciechowski as he’s hit leadoff the last two games and projects to hit there again in this favorable matchup.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

• Shane Bieber, CLE ($12,000): Far and away the most expensive pitcher on the all-day slate but for good reason. He’s taking a perfect 4-0 record with five straight quality starts, a 1.30 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and a 9:1 K/BB ratio against one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Pirates are dead last in OPS+ at 68, and second to last with a .213 team BA. As the saying goes, “you can’t predict baseball” but this is as close to a sure thing as it gets.
• Fernando Tatis Jr., SDP ($4,700): There isn’t a hotter batter on the planet right now so he’s always worth consideration regardless of opponent. 10 of his 12 home runs have come against righties. Fire him up with confidence and maybe he’ll break some more unwritten rules and win you some cash.
• Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4,300): It hasn’t mattered if Blackmon has faced a lefty or righty or whether he was home or away. But any chance you get to start him against a right-handed pitcher, at home, he’ll give you ROI.
• Luke Voit, NYY ($4,000): He’s riding a nine-game hitting streak and has four home runs in his last three games. His probable opponent, Trevor Richards, struggled with the fledgling Blue Jays in his previous start. And these Yanks ain’t those Jays.
• Dinelson Lamet, SDP ($9,400): Lamet has been phenomenal at home this year with a sparkling 2-0 record, 1.56 ERA, 0.635 WHIP, and a 21:3 K/BB ratio over 17.1 innings. He gets the Texas Rangers, who are third to last in the league with 3.86 runs/per game, bottom two in home runs, and bottom four in team batting average. Giddy up.

5 Notable Players to Fade

• Adam Wainwright, STL ($8,300): He has a career 5.25 ERA across 161 career innings against the Reds. It’s just a steep price pay to for the old veteran, who likely won’t go deep enough to get you a QS or a win.
• Mookie Betts, LOS ($4,400): Mookie will probably make me pay for fading him but he’s struggled against lefties this year (.120/.214/.120) with no home runs over 25 at-bats. Kikuchi has a funky delivery and Mookie has only faced him three times in his career, going hitless.
• Jose Altuve, HOU ($3,900): It’s no secret that Altuve has had a brutal start to the year. He’s hit as low as seventh in the batting order recently and he’s registered just a .439 OPS over the last two weeks. Perhaps a visit to Coors Field will cure what ails him but I’m not willing to pay $3,900 to find out.
• Max Muncy, LOS ($3,600): Muncy is whiffing, a lot, and he’s not just getting on base like we’re used to a .303 OBP in 2020 versus .360 for his career. I’m just not willing to bet on him getting off the snide against a LHP.
• Matt Olson, OAK ($3,500): Olson has had an odd year; he only has 15 hits, eight of which have left the yard. He’s walked 18 times but he’s also struck out 27. He’s fared better against lefties than righties, too. But he’s more likely to go 0-for-4 than hit a home run if we’re going by the averages. I’d spend less at first base and pay up elsewhere.

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Jon Mathisen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @eazymath.