Wide receivers most commonly break out in their second or third professional seasons. Some of the receivers heading into their third season in 2020 have already broken out, while others are still hoping to break out. For most of the 2018 draft class, as with any draft class, it will never happen.
This list will focus exclusively on the third-year receivers who are fantasy relevant. Sadly, despite being the fourth receiver taken in the 2018 draft, Dante Pettis will not appear, as he is not worth discussing.
Almost every wide receiver from the 2018 draft class comes with a price that leaves some room for improvement. Some tremendous opportunity exists value-wise with this draft class. I based my rankings in order of whom I see as the likeliest to become a valuable fantasy asset — not necessarily the order in which I would draft them, which, as always, is tethered to ADP to maximize value. Here we go.
Check out our consensus ADP to identify values across the most popular league hosts 
1. D.J. Moore (CAR)
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to see the undisputed WR1 on the Panthers as the WR1 on this list. D.J. Moore was an excellent prospect who has, to this point, panned out in the NFL. Moore has 88th percentile speed, 94th percentile burst, and 73rd percentile agility. He is built to be a target hog, and that’s exactly what he was during his 2019 breakout. Moore commanded a 24.3% target share, and while he struggled to separate, he ranked sixth in the league with a 55.6% contested catch rate. That was important, given Kyle Allen’s inability even remotely resemble an XFL quarterback, let alone an NFL one.
With Teddy Bridgewater taking over and the Panthers’ abomination of a defense, the stage is set for Moore to ascend into the ranks of the WR1s.
2. D.J. Chark (JAC)
We start with a pair of D.J.s, as D.J. Chark follows D.J. Moore. While Moore is likely atop everyone’s year third-year receiver rankings, Chark could range anywhere from second to fourth. Chark typically goes off the board in the fourth or fifth round. Did everyone forget he finished as the overall WR13 last season? Chark averaged 15.6 ppg, just 0.3 ppg behind Kenny Golladay and Allen Robinson, both of whom are locked in as third-round picks. Much like Golladay for half a season and Robinson for the entire season/his entire career, Chark dealt with poor quarterback play. He excelled despite it. A full offseason of Gardner Minshew as the unquestioned starter will only help.
Chark went undervalued because of his lackluster college production, but physically, he profiles as a true alpha WR1. While Chark’s low college dominator rating was the reason for concern, it no longer matters, as he has proven he can be that guy in the NFL. Chark has room to improve on his 62.4% catch rate, and with no real target competition behind him, he is set up to be a target monster. It’s also worth noting that Chark dropped zero of his 117 targets last season. He’s just an extremely talented receiver, albeit on a bad team, but one who I think will smash his ADP.
3. Calvin Ridley (ATL)
One of the most polarizing players entering this season is Calvin Ridley. I’ve seen him go as high as the early third round and as late as the mid-fifth round. The range of outcomes for Ridley is pretty wide. It would not totally shock me if he finished as a WR1 alongside Julio Jones. It also wouldn’t shock me if he was mostly what he was last season, where he posted a WR17 finish.
Ridley is a very safe pick because I don’t see “bust” in his range of outcomes, but that’s more due to situation than talent. Ridley has just 42nd percentile agility and 2nd percentile burst. Ridley is a complete zero after the catch (just 1.4 yards after catch per target), which limits his splash play upside. He’s not the type of guy who will win you a week. This also makes it difficult for him to truly ascend to elite status. On the other hand, Ridley is in a fantastic situation. He’s actually the WR2 on his team for the first time since he was drafted (fantasy owners wanted to think it was Ridley, but it had been Mohamed Sanu until he was traded to New England). Matt Ryan is a very good quarterback and has attempted over 600 passes in six of the past eight seasons. The Falcons are consistently atop the league in passing volume, which bodes well for Ridley’s opportunity.
At his cost, I’m okay with Ridley. The reason I’m not targeting Ridley has less to do with what I think he will do and more to do with guys (like Chark) going after him that I like better.
4. Courtland Sutton (DEN)
If this list were based purely on talent, Courtland Sutton would be number one, and it wouldn’t be close. Sutton is a throwback talent that reminds me of the type of guy drafted in the top two rounds of fantasy drafts in the early 2010s — the Julio Jones/A.J. Green/Dez Bryant/Demaryius Thomas type. Sutton is tall (6’3), agile (97th percentile agility score), and has a massive catch radius (90th percentile).
Sutton only managed a WR23 finish last year due in large part to dreadful quarterback play. He received passes from Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, and Drew Lock. If Sutton swapped places with Julio or Golladay or any Eagle, he would be a second-round pick. A bet on Sutton is a bet on talent. Unfortunately, I’m not overly interested in placing any wager on Drew Lock. With that said, Sutton is a bit underpriced, and he has fallen in some drafts I’ve seen. In the fifth round, I will take Sutton if he’s the best receiver available. In the sixth round, likely as my WR3, it’s an insta-smash draft. I wouldn’t reach for Sutton due to the risks posed by him being associated with Lock, but he has WR1 finish in his range of outcomes.
5. Michael Gallup (DAL)
Deciding what order to place Michael Gallup and the next guy on this list was the most difficult decision I had to make. Gallup finished as a high-end WR3 last season, averaging 13.8 ppg. He had one of the most unheralded 1,100-yard seasons that I can remember. He’s currently going as the WR33, and I don’t get it. Are people that certain CeeDee Lamb is going to come in and just usurp Gallup?
This isn’t a situation where Lamb is entering a barren wide receiver depth chart. Gallup is #goodatfootball. He’s on what could be the NFC’s best offense. Dak Prescott has proven to be one of the league’s best quarterbacks. Lamb is going to soak up the targets vacated by Randall Cobb and those of the ancillary receivers. Gallup’s 112 targets in 14 games aren’t going anywhere. If anything, they’re going up. With (hopefully) Analytics McCarthy running his pass-heavy scheme, there’s room for Amari Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb to all see triple-digit targets. Gallup is an excellent target as your WR3/Flex option with WR2 upside.
6. Christian Kirk (ARI)
The similarities between Christian Kirk and Michael Gallup are what made them so difficult to separate. Kirk is also the clear WR2 on his team, but he’s equally underappreciated. Unlike Gallup, Kirk has the advantage over his WR1 in terms of rapport with his quarterback. Kirk played a full season with Kyler Murray while DeAndre Hopkins just came in this offseason.
Kirk was a mid-tier WR3 last season, and now he’s priced as a high-end WR4. The Cardinals are naturally going to be better with a full year of experience running Kliff Kingsbury’s offense and Murray having a full season under his belt. Kirk saw 108 targets in just 13 games last season. While he was highly inefficient, he was hurt very early in the season with a sprained ankle, and that could explain his poor efficiency. I liked Kirk as a prospect and am of the belief Hopkins only benefits him. The Cardinals run enough three and four-receiver sets, are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, and want to pass the ball a ton. Kirk could see 130 targets this season. How many WR4s can you say that about? Guys like Gallup and Kirk are why you can go robust RB while also sneaking in an earlier round tight end or quarterback without suffering too much at wide receiver.
7. Anthony Miller (CHI)
Unsurprisingly, as is the case with most rookie wide receivers, Anthony Miller did a whole lot of nothing in his first season. There were some hopes of a second-year breakout, but that didn’t happen either…or did it?
Obviously, Miller was not a useful fantasy asset at 8.4 ppg, but he also wasn’t a full-time player until late in the season. From Weeks 11-16 (excluding Week 12), Miller averaged over a 90% snap share. During that span (and including Week 12), he averaged 14.8 ppg (which includes his 1.2 point effort in Week 16). That’s certainly room for optimism. Miller is going to start in two-receiver sets this season opposite Allen Robinson. While Miller’s ceiling isn’t super high, he can absolutely emerge into a solid every week WR3, which makes his WR5 price that much more surprising.
The Rest
To recap, the top seven third-year wide receivers are:
1. D.J. Moore
2. D.J. Chark
3. Calvin Ridley
4. Courtland Sutton
5. Michael Gallup
6. Christian Kirk
7. Anthony Miller
There are a couple of other third-year receivers worth mentioning.
8. James Washington (PIT): Slated to be the third receiver on the Steelers’ depth chart, James Washington could end up being the arbitrage Diontae Johnson pick (although I’m a huge Diontae Johnson proponent) and is worthy of a late-round draft pick.
9. Allen Lazard (GB): Somehow, the UDFA is the clear WR2 opposite Davante Adams. He’s also worth a dart throw on the off chance that Aaron Rodgers has some sort of renaissance and decides to throw to someone other than Adams.
10. Russell Gage (ATL): He should be Atlanta’s starting slot receiver and will have a game here and there where he’s worth using. He’s an end of the roster floor play bench player in deeper leagues.
11. Justin Watson (TB): The WR3 job in Tampa Bay is a battle between Justin Watson and Scotty Miller. Watson had a couple of usable weeks last season when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were injured, so he’s a name to at least monitor.
Finally, even though I said I wouldn’t mention irrelevant players, it can’t hurt to at least acknowledge the following receivers that, at some point or another, were guys we thought might be something. Simply put, none of these guys matter.
Dante Pettis (SF)
Tre’Quan Smith (NO)
Keke Coutee (HOU)
DaeSean Hamilton (DEN)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB)
Auden Tate (CIN)
Trey Quinn (WAS)
2020 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.
